Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was higher after trading both sides of unchanged. USDA reported strong weekly export sales although sales were below the previous couple of weeks. China was a buyer once again. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe. It is getting too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and isolated showers this weekend and into next week and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except for some isolated showers on Saturday. The Southeast will see scattered showers starting on Monday. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have scattered showers on Friday and Saturday, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.42 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,579 bales, from 3,579 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 238,100 bales this year and 93,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were -400 bales this year and -1,400 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6670, and 8910 July. Support is at 5640, 5500, and 5320 July, with resistance of 5860, 6050 and 6100 July.
DJ On-Call Cotton – May 14
As of May 8. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
May 20 0 0 0 0 5 -5
Jul 20 26,726 26,790 -64 16,355 14,989 1,366
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 22,045 21,289 756 23,399 21,468 1,931
Mar 21 14,490 14,269 221 3,798 3,075 723
May 21 6,412 6,305 107 646 426 220
Jul 21 10,551 10,552 -1 1,377 1,025 352
Dec 21 4,753 4,322 431 6,607 6,339 268
Mar 22 616 616 0 13 13 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 85,743 84,293 1,450 52,209 47,354 4,855
Open Open Change
May 20 0 0 0
Jul 20 91,346 98,831 -7,485
Oct 20 90 109 -19
Dec 20 54,062 50,668 3,394
Mar 21 13,811 12,562 1,249
May 21 3,675 2,800 875
Jul 21 3,685 3,105 580
Dec 21 7,615 6,974 641
Mar 22 44 44 0
May 22 0 0 0
Jul 22 3 3 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 174,331 175,096 -765
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in response to the increased demand ideas. Support is coming from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand and demand from food service operations has been almost shut down. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The south is still missing the rains but it is not as hot now. The mid season Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers on Friday and Saturday, then dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICS said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 111.00 July, with resistance at 120.00, 121.00, and 124.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London after holding support on the daily charts. It was a chart based move as demand news remains hard to find and as Brazil exported a lot of Coffee last month. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing and have helped to hold back New York prices. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are less outlets for sales. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.790 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 770 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 113.00 and 118.00 July. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 102.00 July, and resistance is at 110.00, 113.00 and 115.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1130 and 1090 July. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as demand seemed to surface for nearby supplies. Crude Oil and products prices were higher to provide some support for the Sugar market. Prices in petroleum futures still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows in rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1320 and 1420 October. Support is at 1020, 990, and 950 October, and resistance is at 1070, 1120, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 347.00, 340.00, and 328.00 August, and resistance is at 358.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in consolidation trading. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 4.322 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2490, 2510, and 2580 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1890 July, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2050 July.