About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was lower on speculative long liquidation. Support is coming from hopes and ideas of improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed another sharp increase in sales with China the featured buyer. Vietnam was also a good buyer. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe. It is getting too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and isolated showers this weekend and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except for some isolated showers on Saturday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.03 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,579 bales, from 3,579 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 238,100 bales this year and 93,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were -400 bales this year and -1,400 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6190, 6670, and 8910 July. Support is at 5500, 5340, and 5300 July, with resistance of 5860, 6050 and 6100 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in response to the increased demand ideas. Support is coming from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The south is still missing the rains but it is not as hot now. The mid season Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions but scattered showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 111.00 July, with resistance at 119.00, 120.00, and 121.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – May 13
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
5/2/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/2/2020 5/4/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 321.24 302.27 6.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.87 6.23 -5.7%
Total 327.11 308.50 6.0%
Pack
Bulk 5.32 5.22 2.0%
Retail/Institutional 1.07 1.13 -5.1%
Total Pack 6.40 6.35 0.7%
Reprocessed -3.55 -3.11 14.2%
Pack from Fruit 2.84 3.24 -12.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.01 -0.11 -86.0%
Imports – Foreign 5.12 11.78 -56.5%
Domestic Receipts 0.13 0.47 -73.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.80 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.04 -61.8%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 329.06 316.56 3.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.95 7.36 -5.6%
Total 336.00 323.92 3.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.39 5.19 -15.4%
Exports 0.38 0.16 146.4%
Total (Bulk) 4.77 5.34 -10.7%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.74 1.17 -36.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.74 1.17 -36.5%
Total Movement 5.51 6.51 -15.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 324.29 311.22 4.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.20 6.19 0.2%
Ending Inventory 330.49 317.41 4.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
2-May-20 4-May-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 121.74 112.29 8.4%
Retail/Institutional 34.43 37.38 -7.9%
Total Pack 156.17 149.67 4.3%
Reprocessed -80.33 -78.57 2.2%
Pack from Fruit 75.84 71.09 6.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.06 -0.73 183.9%
Imports – Foreign 98.25 194.63 -49.5%
Domestic Receipts 10.17 4.35 134.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.26 0.04 629.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 15.92 3.28 385.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.13 1.14 -1.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 477.01 473.63 0.7%
Retail/Institutional 40.25 43.30 -7.0%
Total 517.26 516.93 0.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 149.28 148.58 0.5%
Domestic 9.41 13.83 -32.0%
Exports 158.69 162.41 -2.3%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 34.05 37.10 -8.2%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 34.05 37.10 -8.2%
Total Movement 192.74 199.52 -3.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 324.29 311.22 4.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.20 6.19 0.2%
Ending Inventory 330.49 317.41 4.1%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London once again. Demand news remains hard to find and Brazil exported a lot of Coffee last month. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing and have helped to hold back New York prices. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are less outlets for sales. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.790 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.13 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 770 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 113.00 and 118.00 July. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 99.00 July, and resistance is at 110.00, 113.00 and 115.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed. Crude Oil and products prices were higher to provide some support for the Sugar market, but reports that Brazil was producing more Sugar and less Ethanol were bearish. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows in rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 910 October. Support is at 1020, 990, and 950 October, and resistance is at 1070, 1120, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 329.00 and 312.00 August. Support is at 340.00, 328.00, and 323.00 August, and resistance is at 350.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.320 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2490, 2510, and 2580 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1880 July, with resistance at 19890, 2000, and 2030 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322