About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May. 15, 2020 58 May 12, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL May May. 15, 2020 15 May 13, 2020
SOYBEAN May May. 15, 2020 1 May 04, 2020
WHEAT May May. 15, 2020 2 Apr 30, 2020

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 14
For the week ended May 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 203.5 149.8 26380.0 25666.8 3584.8 2283.9
hrw 11.3 61.7 9886.0 9342.2 1244.6 990.8
srw 42.0 62.5 2440.8 3336.0 197.9 293.2
hrs 53.6 25.6 7792.9 7070.9 1241.6 510.4
white 53.8 0.0 5276.4 5417.2 800.0 277.5
durum 42.8 0.0 984.1 500.3 100.8 212.0
corn 1073.2 554.5 38594.2 46898.2 13181.6 3367.9
soybeans 655.5 440.0 40361.5 45237.1 5701.8 1665.4
soymeal 101.4 18.8 9638.2 10523.2 2260.5 235.1
soyoil 6.7 2.8 1022.0 696.9 245.9 10.5
upland cotton 238.1 93.3 16162.4 14240.8 5604.5 2529.8
pima cotton -0.4 -1.4 546.3 709.4 140.5 33.8
sorghum -15.3 65.0 3589.4 1614.1 1463.5 163.0
barley 0.0 0.0 49.8 61.2 10.1 31.0
rice 28.2 0.0 3219.8 2939.9 628.6 0.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and the price trends are down in the Chicago Winter Wheat markets. Trends are still sideways in Minneapolis. The USDA reports showed ample supplies here and around the world. Improving weather around the world and here at home was another big reason to see some selling hit the markets. The Midwest froze over the weekend but reports from the country indicate that there was little damage noted so far. Temperatures will moderate this week. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia got some very beneficial rains last weekend. The rains in Russia have come at a time when the crop most needs them and most areas are seeing beneficial precipitation. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected even with the recent freeze. Reduced production ideas are heard for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a couple of weeks ago. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. Some recent showers might have benefited crops but it is still dry in the region overall. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Cold weather was also reported in these areas over the weekend and it has been cold this week so some losses are possible.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers today and then on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal early and above normal by this weekend. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and then again on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers at the end of the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 504, 492, and 468 July. Support is at 499, 494, and 488 July, with resistance at 513, 517, and 528 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 436 and 418 July. Support is at 447, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 468, 473, and 477 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 506, 502, and 497 July, and resistance is at 517, 524, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed, with old crop months higher and new crop months a little lower. The USDA reports showed that supplies of old crop Rice remain tight but that there should be much more available by early Fall and the next harvest. Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain but planting should be active now. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1588 July. Support is at 1525, 1505, and 1498 July, with resistance at 1584, 1596, and 1608 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower. There were no new reports of new Chinese demand and freezing temperatures over the weekend did little actual damage to plants. China bought well over 600,000 tons of US Corn last week to give the market a demand boost when it really needed it. However, a Chinese representative said yesterday that China would only complete the deal if the US backed off criticism of its handling of the Coronavirus outbreak. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus, but demand for petroleum products is starting to improve as are ethanol margins. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, and the plants are opening again with reduced staffs and more spread out lines. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 324, 327, and 332 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 307 and 311 July. Support is at 299, 295, and 289 July, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 315 July.

DJ US Ethanol Production Inches Off of Record Lows — Market Talk
1118 ET – Ethanol production in the US is finding its way higher after plummeting to record lows in previous weeks. The EIA estimates that ethanol production was at 617,000 barrels per day, up 19,000 barrels from the previous week. Two weeks prior, ethanol production had found its record low at 537,000 barrels per day. US inventories of ethanol are also well down from previous weeks, dropping another 1.4 million barrels to 24.19 million barrels. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower. The USDA supply and demand reports were considered bearish but in line with trade ideas. The demand has been slow with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. However, basis levels are increasing at Brazil ports now as the country is starting to run out of Soybeans to export. The Midwest weekend was very cold with freezing temperatures for many areas. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. It is turning warmer this week so what damage was done over the weekend will be all the damage for now.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 20,000 tons of Us Soybean Oil and 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 288.00, 286.00, and 283.00 July, and resistance is at 294.00, 296.00, and 298.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2520, and 2450 July, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2700 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments Palm Oil closed mostly lower, but good export data helped bring the market back from its worst losses of the day to close only a little lower. Canola was mixed as bad weather battled bad demand ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1970, 1940, and 1910 July, with resistance at 2060, 2100, and 2120 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week but big rains possible on Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+44 May
+132 May
+55 May
+53 July
+12 July
N/A
June
+44 July
+49 July
+53 July

July
+44 July
+49 July
+58 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 459.10 -13.00 Jul 2020 up 0.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 481.50 10.00 Jul 2020 dn 0.60
Basis: Vancouver 496.50 25.00 Jul 2020 dn 0.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 522.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 497.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 500.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 525.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 157.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3370)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 367,415 lots, or 16.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,318 5,340 5,187 5,340 5,272 5,316 44 110 453
Jul-20 5,063 5,063 5,003 5,018 5,059 5,030 -29 557 1,606
Sep-20 4,544 4,547 4,388 4,401 4,543 4,469 -74 356,927 149,265
Nov-20 4,091 4,097 3,959 4,000 4,116 4,047 -69 49 514
Jan-21 4,058 4,061 3,930 3,935 4,057 3,993 -64 9,759 17,557
Mar-21 4,036 4,036 3,960 3,960 4,063 4,010 -53 13 39
Corn
Turnover: 351,224 lots, or 7.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,008 2,000 -8 25 3,469
Jul-20 2,022 2,027 2,011 2,012 2,024 2,018 -6 19,166 51,973
Sep-20 2,049 2,054 2,042 2,043 2,049 2,047 -2 292,768 784,887
Nov-20 2,067 2,071 2,062 2,063 2,066 2,066 0 3,524 4,042
Jan-21 2,085 2,089 2,079 2,082 2,085 2,083 -2 32,475 157,986
Mar-21 2,097 2,100 2,090 2,094 2,096 2,094 -2 3,266 2,390
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,312,662 lots, or 35.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,546 2,546 2,546 2,546 2,571 2,546 -25 19 1,000
Jul-20 2,602 2,606 2,560 2,568 2,598 2,575 -23 33,513 78,394
Aug-20 2,711 2,721 2,674 2,675 2,714 2,693 -21 14,510 16,970
Sep-20 2,732 2,734 2,689 2,697 2,731 2,703 -28 1,080,190 1,801,977
Nov-20 2,765 2,769 2,727 2,732 2,769 2,740 -29 5,232 14,496
Dec-20 2,797 2,798 2,767 2,767 2,818 2,779 -39 152 413
Jan-21 2,805 2,811 2,769 2,776 2,807 2,784 -23 178,741 423,303
Mar-21 2,757 2,757 2,720 2,727 2,760 2,732 -28 305 1,571
Palm Oil
Turnover: 782,487 lots, or 34.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,420 4,420 4,390 4,400 4,398 4,402 4 596 5,500
Jun-20 4,786 4,786 4,578 4,636 4,598 4,678 80 4 5
Jul-20 4,724 4,724 4,672 4,672 4,712 4,698 -14 2 27
Aug-20 – – – 4,442 4,442 4,442 0 0 6
Sep-20 4,398 4,420 4,342 4,372 4,362 4,372 10 730,641 442,959
Oct-20 4,378 4,380 4,320 4,336 4,340 4,340 0 27 337
Nov-20 4,424 4,424 4,352 4,352 4,382 4,374 -8 15 176
Dec-20 4,496 4,496 4,314 4,428 4,430 4,428 -2 19 181
Jan-21 4,578 4,588 4,504 4,526 4,536 4,536 0 51,136 99,336
Feb-21 4,674 4,674 4,524 4,586 4,626 4,598 -28 26 21
Mar-21 4,678 4,678 4,558 4,606 4,630 4,612 -18 21 24
Apr-21 – – – 4,608 4,624 4,608 -16 0 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 392,798 lots, or 21.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,398 5,398 5,394 5,394 5,426 5,396 -30 107 5,784
Jul-20 – – – 5,396 5,424 5,396 -28 0 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,384 5,430 5,384 -46 0 4
Sep-20 5,392 5,404 5,302 5,324 5,354 5,338 -16 352,469 451,987
Nov-20 5,418 5,418 5,418 5,418 5,428 5,418 -10 7 418
Dec-20 5,488 5,488 5,488 5,488 5,440 5,488 48 1 35
Jan-21 5,492 5,502 5,408 5,420 5,458 5,448 -10 40,201 91,362
Mar-21 5,488 5,488 5,458 5,468 5,472 5,466 -6 13 21
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322