About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 10-May 3-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 32 18 24 27
Corn Planted 67 51 28 56
Corn Emerged 24 8 9 22
Soybeans Planted 38 23 8 23
Soybeans Emerged 7 1 4
Sorghum Planted 28 22 23 30
Rice Planted 70 49 53 75
Rice Emerged 43 32 40 57
Peanuts Planted 27 14 35 32
Sugarbeets Planted 60 49 54 82
Oats Planted 78 67 59 78
Oats Emerged
55 44 41 53
Winter Wheat Headed 44 32 38 50
Spring Wheat Planted 42 29 38 63
Spring Wheat Emerged 16 6 8 29
Barley Planted 60 41 53 68
Barley Emerged 24 12 21 37

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 5 11 31 45 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 10 31 48 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 6 28 49 15

Oats This Week 1 2 28 59 10
Oats Last Week
Oats Last Year

Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 11 36 42 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 10 35 43 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 6 30 52 11

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was mostly a little higher and July was much higher. Higher prices are indicated. Support is coming from hopes and ideas of improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed another sharp increase in sales with China the featured buyer. Vietnam was also a good buyer. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe. It is getting too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and isolated showers this weekend and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions wxcept for some isolated showers on Saturday. Temperatures should be near to above normal after cold weather today. Texas will have scattered showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average below normal today and near to above normal later in the period. The USDA average price is now 53.91 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,579 bales, from 3,579 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5500, 5340, and 5300 July, with resistance of 5800, 5850 and 6050 July.

DJ USDA Crop Production: Final U.S. All Cotton – 2
Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned by Type,
State, and United States, 2018-19
============================================================================
Production in Lint- Bales Ginned in
Type 480-lb Net Weight seed 480-lb Net Weight
and Bales 1/ Ratio 2/ Bales 3/
State ================================================================
2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
============================================================================
—- 1,000 Bales — ——– Bales ——–
Upland
U.S. 17,566.0 19,227.0 (NA) (NA) 17,524,500 19,193,900

American-Pima
All
U.S. 18,367.0 19,912.5 (NA) (NA) 18,324,350 19,878,350
============================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ For 2018, estimates available for the 6 States shown. For 2019, estimates
available for the 4 States shown.
3/ Equivalent 480-pound net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for
cross-state movement.
Cottonseed: Production and Farm Disposition
by State and United States, 2018-19
==========================================================================
Farm Disposition
———————————– Seed for
Production Sales to Planting 2/
Oil Mills Other 1/
State ==============================================================
2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
========================================================================== 1,000 Tons
U.S. 5,631.0 5,945.0 2,435.0 2,575.0 3,196.0 3,370.0 79.5 76.5
==========================================================================
– Represents zero.
1/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage,
losses, and other uses.
2/ Included in ‘other’ farm disposition. Seed for planting is produced in
crop year shown, but used in the following year.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Apr May
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 14.10 13.74 NA 13.70*
Harvested 9.99 11.61 NA 11.35*
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 882 823 NA 825*
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.20 4.85 NA 7.10
Production 18.37 19.91 NA 19.50
Imports 0.00 0.01 NA 0.01
Supply, Total 22.57 24.77 NA 26.61
Domestic Use 2.98 2.70 NA 2.90
Exports, Total 14.76 15.00 NA 16.00
Use, Total 17.74 17.70 NA 18.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.02 -0.03 NA 0.01
Ending Stocks 4.85 7.10 NA 7.70
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 70.3 59.0 NA 57.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 600 – 18 May 2020

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2020/21 Proj.
World
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 97.16 118.95 42.84 116.46 42.93 0.14 99.43
World Less China
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 60.92 92.45 33.34 78.46 42.81 0.14 65.31
United States
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 7.10 19.50 0.01 2.90 16.00 0.01 7.70
Total Foreign
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 90.06 99.45 42.84 113.56 26.93 0.13 91.73
Major Exporters 4/
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 40.03 56.58 1.81 32.64 22.82 0.02 42.95

Major Importers 8/
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 47.09 39.78 38.58 76.94 2.63 0.11 45.76
================================================================================
WASDE – 600 – 28 May 2020

Running Bales Ginned by Crop – States and United States: 2016-2019
[Excluding linters]
————————————————————————————————————————
: Running bales ginned
Crop and State :—————————————————————————————————
: 2016 Crop : 2017 Crop : 2018 Crop : 2019 Crop
—————————————————————————————-
: number
Upland :
United States ……: 16,160,450 19,764,300 17,127,900 18,740,700
American Pima :
United States ……: 549,550 677,050 781,250 668,750 :
All :
United States ……: 16,710,000 20,441,350 17,909,150 19,409,450
————————————————————————————————————–

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed narrowly mixed in response to the USDA reports and increased demand ideas. Support is coming from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The south is still missing the rains but it is not as hot now. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions but scattered showers on Friday and this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 111.00 July, with resistance at 119.00, 120.00, and 121.00 July.

DJ Florida Orange Supplies to Tighten as Demand Climbs — Market Talk
13:22 ET – The USDA trims its forecast for Florida oranges by 350,000 boxes to 69.65M. “As we near the end of harvest, this is really a reconciliation of what has been utilized,” says Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. However, consumer demand for orange juice was recently at a six-year high, and the US government is reportedly ready to buy $25M of juice this summer. (mary.dewet@dowjones.com)

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2018-2019 and
Forecasted May 1, 2020
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
————————————————————————————————–
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :———————————————————————
: 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020
————————————————————————————————–
: —— 1,000 boxes —— —— 1,000 tons —–
Oranges :
California, all 2/ ………: 51,400 48,500 2,056 1,940
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 42,000 40,000 1,680 1,600
Valencia ………………: 9,400 8,500 376 340
Florida, all ……………: 71,850 69,650 3,233 3,134
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 30,400 29,650 1,368 1,334
Valencia ………………: 41,450 40,000 1,865 1,800
Texas, all 2/ …………..: 2,500 2,300 106 98
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 2,210 1,800 94 77
Valencia ………………: 290 500 12 21
United States, all ………: 125,750 120,450 5,395 5,172
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 74,610 71,450 3,142 3,011
Valencia ………………: 51,140 49,000 2,253 2,161
—————————————————————————————————-
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties
in Florida and Texas.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London. Demand news remains hard to find and Brazil exported a lot of Coffee last month. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing and have helped to hold back New York prices. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are less outlets for sales. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.801 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.97 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 184 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 769 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 113.00 and 118.00 July. Support is at 107.00, 103.00, and 102.00 July, and resistance is at 110.00, 113.00 and 115.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 2.5% in April to 3.3M Bags, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports rose in April as sales abroad of the robusta variety jumped, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 3.3 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, an increase of 2.5% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Tuesday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 1.1% to 2.7 million bags, while exports of robusta beans rose 30.3% from April, 2019 to 313,145 bags.
Sales of processed coffee, including ground, roasted and instant, rose 12% to 359,030 bags.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed to mostly higher despite news that Brazil mills had ramped up production of Sugar instead of Ethanol. Crude Oil and products prices were higher to provide some support for the Sugar market. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows in rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Sunday after a dry week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 910 October. Support is at 1020, 990, and 950 October, and resistance is at 1070, 1120, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 379.00 and 408.00 August. Support is at 340.00, 328.00, and 323.00 August, and resistance is at 350.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Up 61% in 1H April as Ethanol Demand Plummets
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of April compared with a year earlier, even as sales of ethanol plummeted amid a drop in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 38 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 19.6% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2 million tons of sugar, up 93.5%, and made 1.6 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 5%.
Sugar output jumped because mills are switching more production over to the sweetener from ethanol. Demand for the alternative fuel has dropped in Brazil and abroad as the coronavirus crisis has slammed economic activity. The mills in the center south sold 29% less ethanol in April compared with a year earlier, Unica said.
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars in the world that can run on either gasoline or diesel, and the price of the alternative fuel is set based on the price of gasoline, which has fallen sharply in recent months.
“Demand for ethanol has an uncertain future because of the impact of the pandemic and of the oscillations in the price of gasoline,” said Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, Unica’s technical director.
In the season from April 1 through May 1, mills in the region crushed 60.4 million tons of cane, up 32.3% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 115.8% to 3 million tons, and ethanol output rose 14.2% to 2.6 billion liters.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Apr May May
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 2008 1783 1783 1273
Production 2/ 8999 8038 8024 9005
Beet Sugar 4939 4298 4285 4965
Cane Sugar 4060 3740 3740 4040
Florida 2005 2100 2100 2105
Hawaii 0 0 0 0
Louisiana 1907 1513 1513 1800
Texas 147 127 127 135
Imports 3070 3879 3731 3456
TRQ 3/ 1541 2180 2180 1395
Other Program 4/ 438 350 350 350
Other 5/ 1092 1349 1200 1710
Mexico 1000 1199 1050 1660
Total Supply 14077 13699 13538 13733
Exports 35 35 35 35
Deliveries 12231 12230 12230 12230
Food 12106 12125 12125 12125
Other 6/ 126 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 28 0 0 0
Total Use 12294 12265 12265 12265
Ending Stocks 1783 1434 1273 1468
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.5 11.7 10.4 12.0
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2019/20 Est.
Apr 1169 5235 89 4492 1065 936
May 1169 5125 89 4492 938 953
2020/21 Proj.
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 953 6100 89 4575 1614 953
================================================================================
WASDE – 600 – 17 May 2020

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and both markets fell back into their recent trading ranges before finding much buying interest. The buy side of the market did not chase futures higher so the sell side was able to take control. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.339 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2530, 2580, and 2650 July. Support is at 2380, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2510, 2580, and 265 0 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1990 and 2160 July. Support is at 1950, 1910, and 1880 July, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2050 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322