About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May. 14, 2020 20 Apr 28, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL May May. 14, 2020 121 May 12, 2020
ROUGH RICE May May. 14, 2020 7 Apr 28, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT May May. 14, 2020 1 May 11, 2020
SOYBEAN May May. 14, 2020 1 May 04, 2020
WHEAT May May. 14, 2020 3 Apr 30, 2020

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – May 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
20/21 19/20 18/19: 20/21 19/20 18/19: 20/21 19/20 18/19
Soybeans 405.0 580.0 909.0:161.93 153.98 148.30:362.76 336.11 360.26
Brazil na na na: 83.00 84.00 74.59:131.00 124.00 119.00
Argentina na na na: 6.50 8.00 9.10: 53.50 51.00 55.30
China na na na: 0.10 0.13 0.12: 17.50 18.10 15.97
Soyoil 1,865 1,880 1,775: 11.75 11.50 11.18: 58.53 56.52 55.64
Corn 3,318 2,098 2,221:182.25 169.34 180.93: 1,187 1,115 1,123
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02:260.00 260.77 257.33
Argentina na na na: 34.00 34.00 37.24: 50.00 50.00 51.00
S.Africa na na na: 2.30 2.50 1.20: 14.00 16.00 11.82
Cotton(a) 7.70 7.10 4.85: 42.93 40.05 41.12:118.95 122.67 118.65
All Wheat 909 978 1,080:187.98 183.40 173.56:768.49 764.32 730.54
China na na na: 1.00 1.00 1.01:135.00 133.59 131.43
EU 27 na na na: 28.50 35.00 23.31:143.00 154.78 136.69
Canada na na na: 24.50 23.00 24.40: 34.00 32.35 32.20
Argentina na na na: 14.50 13.50 12.19: 21.00 19.50 19.50
Australia na na na: 15.00 8.20 9.01: 24.00 15.20 17.30
Russia na na na: 35.00 33.50 35.84: 77.00 73.61 71.69
Ukraine na na na: 19.00 20.50 16.02: 28.00 29.17 25.06
Sorghum 31.0 35.0 64.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 93.0 92.0 87.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 42.0 29.0 38.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 41.8 30.5 44.9: 45.22 42.40 43.71:501.96 493.79 496.46

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 15,995 15,609 13,622-15,960
Soybean 4,125 4,120 3,558-4,292
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2019-20 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,098 2,225 2,092-2,392 2,092
Soybeans 580 501 450-581 480
Wheat 978 972 950-995 970
2020-21 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 3,318 3,403 2,619-3,900 na
Soybeans 405 452 299-683 na
Wheat 909 821 696-912 na
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 314.7 307.5 302.0-325.0 303.2
Soybeans 100.3 100.1 97.5-104.0 100.5
Wheat 295.1 292.5 288.4-295.0 292.8
2020-21 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 339.6 324.0 297.0-365.0 na
Soybeans 98.4 104.0 96.1-115.0 na
Wheat 310.1 292.8 280.0-305.9 na
***
2020-21 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Tuesday’s Average Range
Estimate
All Wheat 1,866 1,859 1,773-1,970
Winter Wheat 1,255 1,255 1,200-1,318
Hard Red Winter 733 754 678-830
Soft Red Winter 298 271 220-305
White Winter 224 227 202-239
***
2019-20 Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 101.0 99.2 97.0-101.0 101.0
Soybeans 124.0 122.9 120.6-124.0 124.5
2019-20 Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 50.0 49.5 49.0-50.0 50.0
Soybeans 51.0 51.1 50.0-52.0 52.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and the price trends turned down in the Chicago Winter Wheat markets. Trends are still sideways in Minneapolis. The USDA reports showed ample supplies here and around the world. Improving weather around the world and here at home was another big reason to see some selling hit the markets. The Midwest froze over the weekend but reports from the country indicate that there was little damage noted so far. Temperatures will moderate this week. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia got some very beneficial rains last weekend. The rains in Russia have come at a time when the crop most needs them and most areas are seeing beneficial precipitation. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected even with the recent freeze. Reduced production ideas are floated for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a couple of weeks ago. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Ideas are that the warmer and drier weather is greatly assisting in the planting progress. Cold weather was also reported in these areas over the weekend and some losses are possible.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers today and then on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal early and above normal by this weekend. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and then again on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers at the end of the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 504, 492f, and 468 July. Support is at 506, 499, and 488 July, with resistance at 517, 528, and 535 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 455, 436, and 418 July. Support is at 462, 455, and 447 July, with resistance at 473, 477, and 486 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 531 and 545 July. Support is at 514, 510, and 506 July, and resistance is at 524, 526, and 534 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed, with old crop months higher and new crop months slightly lower. The USDA reports showed that supplies of old crop Rice remain tight but that there should be much more available by early Fall and the next harvest. Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1588 July. Support is at 1525, 1505, and 1498 July, with resistance at 1584, 1596, and 1608 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 13
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.83 11.26 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.47 12.00 0.00
Brokens 11.31 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher ass speculative short covering hit the pit after the USDA reports. There was nothing very bullish about the reports, but the data released by USDA was mostly in line with the trade and had been traded already. A seasonal rally might be getting underway. There were no new reports of new Chinese demand and freezing temperatures over the weekend did little actual damage to plants. China bought well over 600,000 tons of US Corn last week to give the market a demand boost when it really needed it. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, and the plants are opening again with reduced staffs and more spread out lines. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 323 and 346 July. Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 327, 332, and 340 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 303 and 311 July. Support is at 299, 295, and 289 July, and resistance is at 306, 309, and 312 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed with Soybeans a little lower and Soybean Meal a little higher and Soybean Oil a little lower. The USDA supply and demand reports were considered bearish but in line with trade ideas. The demand has been slow with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. However, basis levels are increasing at Brazil ports now as the country is starting to run out of Soybeans to export. The Midwest weekend was very cold with freezing temperatures for many areas. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. It is turning warmer this week so what damage was done over the weekend will be all the damage for now.
Overnight News: China bought 396,000 tons of US Soybeans for delivery this year and next year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 808 July. Support is at 842, 832, and 830 July, and resistance is at 861, 868, and 877 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 288.00, 286.00, and 283.00 July, and resistance is at 294.00, 296.00, and 298.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2600, 2560, and 2520 July, with resistance at 2700, 2860, and 2910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments Palm Oil closed a little chart based buying from speculators. End users were quiet. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. It snowed in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan and farmers could not plant. It did not get really cold enough to damage any of the already planted crops. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. Weekly chart trends have turned up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 474.00, 478.00, and 482.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 July, with resistance at 2020, 2060, and 2100 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Down 5.8% -SGS
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-15 period are estimated down 5.8% on month at 481,588 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-15 March 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 156,189 187,575
RBD Palm Oil 34,830 44,941
RBD Palm Stearin 30,684 38,146
Crude Palm Oil 94,765 58,668
Total* 481,588 511,460
Major importers of Malaysian palm oil:
European Union 110,170 137,118
U.S. 59,275 23,496
China 42,600 87,500
Japan 18,003 36,854
India 4,900 23,000
Korea 7,500 8,150
Pakistan 35,500 0
Bangladesh 34,500 0
Egypt 1,050 0
Turkey 2,700 26,300
South Africa 38,840 37,500
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia’s April Palm Oil Exports M Tons; -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were on month at million metric tons in April, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the April crop data and revised numbers for March, issued by MPOB:
April March Change
On Month
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 84,118 77,481 Up 8.57%
Closing Stocks 2,045,377 1,729,580 Up 18.26%
Processed Palm Oil 999,744 899,931 Up 11.09%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week but big rains possible on Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+44 May
+132 May
+55 May
+53 July
+12 July
N/A
June
+44 July
+49 July
+53 July

July
+44 July
+49 July
+58 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 12
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 458.30 -13.00 Jul 2020 up 2.70
Basis: Thunder Bay N/A N/A N/A N/A
Basis: Vancouver N/A N/A N/A N/A
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 522.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 520.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 500.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 525.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 522.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 502.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 527.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 155.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3260)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 165,771 lots, or 7.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,299 5,299 5,160 5,299 5,206 5,272 66 125 1,018
Jul-20 5,063 5,070 5,046 5,066 5,045 5,059 14 270 1,621
Sep-20 4,549 4,566 4,518 4,544 4,543 4,543 0 161,932 122,779
Nov-20 4,124 4,137 4,080 4,125 4,118 4,116 -2 24 517
Jan-21 4,066 4,074 4,046 4,058 4,066 4,057 -9 3,418 17,206
Mar-21 4,063 4,063 4,063 4,063 4,087 4,063 -24 2 40
Corn
Turnover: 414,704 lots, or 8.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,015 2,015 2,000 2,000 2,014 2,008 -6 4,149 3,728
Jul-20 2,020 2,032 2,017 2,021 2,020 2,024 4 12,911 49,474
Sep-20 2,045 2,059 2,042 2,048 2,046 2,049 3 328,806 791,321
Nov-20 2,063 2,076 2,059 2,065 2,063 2,066 3 2,649 3,497
Jan-21 2,079 2,094 2,078 2,085 2,079 2,085 6 64,497 157,220
Mar-21 2,093 2,106 2,090 2,099 2,091 2,096 5 1,692 1,838
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,049,058 lots, or 28.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,572 2,572 2,571 2,571 2,648 2,571 -77 31 1,001
Jul-20 2,618 2,619 2,585 2,597 2,605 2,598 -7 29,595 80,554
Aug-20 2,739 2,739 2,700 2,711 2,715 2,714 -1 14,056 16,552
Sep-20 2,741 2,748 2,716 2,727 2,733 2,731 -2 849,535 1,762,633
Nov-20 2,775 2,798 2,753 2,763 2,769 2,769 0 8,531 13,679
Dec-20 2,828 2,829 2,809 2,809 2,808 2,818 10 13 357
Jan-21 2,815 2,823 2,794 2,804 2,802 2,807 5 146,861 413,723
Mar-21 2,762 2,776 2,751 2,757 2,757 2,760 3 436 1,554
Palm Oil
Turnover: 834,857 lots, or 36.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,400 4,424 4,390 4,424 4,406 4,398 -8 123 6,085
Jun-20 4,500 4,652 4,500 4,650 4,432 4,598 166 12 4
Jul-20 4,692 4,770 4,662 4,662 4,690 4,712 22 7 27
Aug-20 4,380 4,500 4,380 4,474 4,504 4,442 -62 5 6
Sep-20 4,358 4,408 4,322 4,398 4,364 4,362 -2 792,362 452,848
Oct-20 4,338 4,364 4,310 4,354 4,330 4,340 10 39 334
Nov-20 4,360 4,438 4,360 4,438 4,376 4,382 6 24 181
Dec-20 4,416 4,514 4,414 4,504 4,406 4,430 24 109 182
Jan-21 4,530 4,576 4,496 4,570 4,534 4,536 2 42,156 98,608
Feb-21 – – – 4,626 4,626 4,626 0 0 20
Mar-21 4,676 4,676 4,586 4,664 4,704 4,630 -74 18 22
Apr-21 4,600 4,650 4,600 4,650 4,696 4,624 -72 2 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 354,026 lots, or 18.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 – – – 5,426 5,426 5,426 0 0 5,787
Jul-20 – – – 5,424 5,424 5,424 0 0 5
Aug-20 5,472 5,472 5,390 5,390 5,440 5,430 -10 2 4
Sep-20 5,338 5,406 5,312 5,392 5,338 5,354 16 321,714 426,184
Nov-20 5,412 5,470 5,378 5,470 5,410 5,428 18 5 413
Dec-20 5,440 5,440 5,440 5,440 5,480 5,440 -40 1 35
Jan-21 5,446 5,498 5,422 5,488 5,452 5,458 6 32,272 92,457
Mar-21 5,486 5,536 5,448 5,496 5,514 5,472 -42 32 25
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322