Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 10-May 3-May 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 32 18 24 27
Corn Planted 67 51 28 56
Corn Emerged 24 8 9 22
Soybeans Planted 38 23 8 23
Soybeans Emerged 7 1 4
Sorghum Planted 28 22 23 30
Rice Planted 70 49 53 75
Rice Emerged 43 32 40 57
Peanuts Planted 27 14 35 32
Sugar beets Planted 60 49 54 82
Oats Planted 78 67 59 78
55 44 41 53
Winter Wheat Headed 44 32 38 50
Spring Wheat Planted 42 29 38 63
Spring Wheat Emerged 16 6 8 29
Barley Planted 60 41 53 68
Barley Emerged 24 12 21 37
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 5 11 31 45 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 10 31 48 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 6 28 49 15
Oats This Week 1 2 28 59 10
Oats Last Week
Oats Last Year
Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 11 36 42 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 10 35 43 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 1 6 30 52 11
General Comments Cotton was mostly a little lower, but July was higher. Futures held support and higher prices are still indicated. Support is coming from hopes and ideas of improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed another sharp increase in sales with China the featured buyer. Vietnam was also a good buyer. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe. It is getting too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta will get periods of scattered showers and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal after cold weather today and tomorrow. Texas will have scattered showers on Friday. Temperatures will average below normal early in the period and near to above normal later in the period. The USDA average price is now 51.99 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,579 bales, from 3,579 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5500, 5340, and 5300 July, with resistance of 5800, 5850 and 6050 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and is correcting down after testing resistance near 121.00 July futures last week. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at 70.4 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The south is still missing the rains but it is not as hot now. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil but it has been dry and irrigation has been used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions but scattered showers on Friday and this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 111.00 July, with resistance at 120.00, 121.00, and 124.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York but a little higher in London. Both markets are still in trading ranges with little going on to push them out of those ranges. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing and have helped to hold back New York prices. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are less outlets for sales. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus. Indonesian producers are more active sellers.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.804 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures early in the week and near to below normal temperatures by this weekend. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 585 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 113.00 and 118.00 July. Support is at 109.00, 107.00, and 103.00 July, and resistance is at 113.00, 115.00 and 117.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1250 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on follow through selling from Friday. Crude Oil and products prices were lower. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows in rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 910 October. Support is at 1020, 990, and 950 October, and resistance is at 1070, 1120, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 379.00 and 408.00 August. Support is at 340.00, 328.00, and 323.00 August, and resistance is at 350.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. The daily charts show that both markets have broken out to the up side. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.346 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2530, 2580, and 2650 July. Support is at 2380, 2340, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2510, 2580, and 265 0 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1990 and 2160 July. Support is at 1950, 1910, and 1880 July, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2050 July.