About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May. 12, 2020 161 Apr 28, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL May May. 12, 2020 40 May 06, 2020
ROUGH RICE May May. 12, 2020 36 Apr 28, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT May May. 12, 2020 9 Apr 30, 2020
SOYBEAN May May. 12, 2020 221 Apr 27, 2020

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020-21 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Tuesday.
2020-21 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2019-20
All Wheat 1,859 1,773-1,970 1,920
Winter Wheat 1,255 1,200-1,318 1,304
Hard Red Winter 754 678-830 833
Soft Red Winter 271 220-305 239
White Winter 227 202-239 232
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market Concepts 1,850 1,275 780 220 220
Allendale 1,816 1,204 709 284 211
DC Analysis 1,857 1,222 690 300 232
Doane 1,813 1,200 678 297 225
EDF Man 1,829 1,225 788 240 202
Futures International 1,849 1,249 719 305 225
Grain Cycles 1,879 1,244 759 266 219
Hueber Report 1,900 1,290 825 235 230
INTL FCStone 1,854 1,208 680 297 231
Kapco Futures 1,824 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sid Love Consulting 1,900 1,310 780 300 230
Midland Research 1,845 1,235 740 260 235
Northstar 1,970 1,295 750 300 235
RJ O’Brien 1,873 1,259 730 303 226
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,960 1,310 830 245 235
US Commodities 1,845 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Vantage RM 1,773 1,216 737 239 239
Western Milling 1,872 1,318 803 285 231
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,805 1,273 812 233 228

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Tuesday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2019
Corn Production 15,609 13,622-15,960 13,692
Soybean Production 4,120 3,558-4,292 3,558
Corn Soybean
Production Production
Advanced Market Concepts 13,622 3,558
AgriSource 15,960 4,100
Allendale 15,860 4,111
DC Analysis 15,750 4,183
Doane 15,762 4,220
EDF Man 15,887 4,109
Futures International 15,412 4,129
Grain Cycles 15,797 4,123
Hueber Report 14,805 4,225
INTL FCStone 15,898 4,112
Kapco Futures 15,951 4,119
Sid Love Consulting 15,929 4,118
Midland Research 15,930 4,120
Northstar 15,530 4,135
Prime-Ag 15,308 4,125
Risk Mgmt Commodities 15,885 4,120
US Commodities 15,721 4,262
Vantage RM 15,913 4,118
Western Milling 15,382 4,292
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,874 4,126

DJ U.S. May Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,225 2,092-2,392 2,092
Soybeans 501 450-581 480
Wheat 972 950-995 970
U.S. 2020-21 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 3,403 2,619-3,900 N/A
Soybeans 452 299-683 N/A
Wheat 821 696-912 N/A
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concepts 2,160 450 990 3,115 368 863
AgriSource 2,150 508 970 3,518 358 840
Allendale 2,192 492 950 3,298 517 763
DC Analysis 2,242 491 970 3,252 338 798
Doane 2,370 515 985 3,250 425 780
EDF Man 2,252 480 970 3,900 440 845
Futures International 2,263 497 N/A 2,939 407 N/A
Grain Cycles 2,207 480 970 3,299 423 855
Hueber Report 2,392 505 995 2,619 380 873
INTL FCStone 2,303 581 954 3,696 415 795
Kapco Futures 2,105 475 957 3,581 299 771
Sid Love Consulting 2,092 500 970 3,866 558 850
Midland Research 2,212 490 990 3,457 310 836
Northstar 2,120 480 980 3,650 635 790
Prime-Ag 2,092 480 970 2,950 435 815
RJ O’Brien 2,347 524 973 3,261 386 832
Risk Mgmt Commodities 2,192 505 975 3,450 670 875
US Commodities 2,368 542 950 3,804 562 N/A
Vantage RM 2,109 475 973 3,447 305 696
Western Milling 2,272 549 979 3,604 683 912
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,292 505 970 3,506 580 805

DJ May World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Average Range USDA April
Corn 307.5 302.0-325.0 303.2
Soybeans 100.1 97.5-104.0 100.5
Wheat 292.5 288.4-295.0 292.8
2020-21
Average Range USDA April
Corn 324.0 297.0-365.0 N/A
Soybeans 104.0 96.1-115.0 N/A
Wheat 292.8 280.0-305.9 N/A
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concepts 306.0 100.5 292.8 325.4 98.8 287.5
Allendale 304.2 100.8 292.9 319.6 96.1 305.9
Doane 310.0 98.0 295.0 305.0 105.0 300.0
EDF Man 325.0 100.0 293.0 336.0 108.0 303.0
Futures International 306.2 97.5 292.5 365.0 115.0 294.0
Grain Cycles 304.0 99.0 293.5 297.0 100.0 297.5
Hueber Report 308.0 100.0 295.0 313.0 102.0 293.0
INTL FCStone 308.4 104.0 291.2 316.8 112.9 290.0
Northstar 305.0 99.0 293.0 335.0 103.5 288.0
US Commodities 308.2 100.2 292.3 N/A N/A N/A
Prime-Ag 302.0 100.0 292.0 330.0 97.0 285.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 306.5 102.6 288.4 324.0 107.0 280.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 304.4 99.7 291.2 321.4 102.7 289.8

DJ May Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
2019-20 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 99.2 97.0-101.0 101.0
Soybeans 122.9 120.6-124.0 124.5
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market Concepts 100.0 123.5
Allendale 101.0 123.0
DC Analysis 98.0 123.0
Doane 99.0 122.5
EDF Man 101.0 124.0
Futures International 100.0 124.0
Hueber Report 100.0 122.5
INTL FCStone 99.9 120.6
Midland Research 97.0 122.3
Northstar 100.0 123.0
Prime Ag 99.0 124.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 97.5 123.5
US Commodities 99.0 123.5
Western Milling 98.0 121.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 99.0 123.5
2019-20 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 49.5 49.0-50.0 50.0
Soybeans 51.1 50.0-52.0 52.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market Concepts 49.0 51.0
Allendale 50.0 52.0
DC Analysis 50.0 51.0
Doane 50.0 51.0
EDF Man 49.5 52.0
Futures International 50.0 52.0
Hueber Report 49.0 51.0
INTL FCStone 50.0 50.0
Midland Research 49.0 51.0
Northstar 49.0 51.0
Prime Ag 49.0 50.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 49.5 51.0
US Commodities 49.5 51.5
Western Milling 49.0 50.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 50.0 52.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower for the week. Improving weather around the world and here at home was the big reason to see some selling hit the markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia is likely to get some very beneficial rains this week. The rains in Russia have come at a time when the crop most needs them, but the rain is only hitting central and northern areas and is leaving southern areas dry. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. It was very cold over the weekend in many SRW areas and a frost or freeze hit many Wheat areas and caused some losses. Reduced production ideas are floated for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a couple of weeks ago. It was clod over the weekend, but not cold enough to inflict more damage. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Ideas are that the warmer and drier weather is greatly assisting in the planting progress. Cold weather was also reported in these areas over the weekend and some losses are possible.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers over the middle of the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 512, 506, and 494 July, with resistance at 535, 540, and 542 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 474, 470, and 468 July, with resistance at 489, 496, and 508 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 506, 502, and 497 July, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 526 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 467,969
: Positions :
: 54,483 84,290 139,212 82,137 160,205 163,769 41,063 439,602 424,771: 28,368 43,199
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 (Change in open interest: 14,167) :
: -3,782 5,301 11,145 -34 -3,926 7,470 1,716 14,800 14,236: -633 -69
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 18.0 29.7 17.6 34.2 35.0 8.8 93.9 90.8: 6.1 9.2
: Total Traders: 358 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 100 110 69 106 49 23 270 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 238,538
: Positions :
: 28,013 42,481 57,549 56,977 107,134 75,181 10,995 217,720 218,159: 20,817 20,379
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 (Change in open interest: -2,354) :
: -657 -3,057 910 -320 1,281 -1,579 -548 -1,647 -1,414: -707 -940
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 17.8 24.1 23.9 44.9 31.5 4.6 91.3 91.5: 8.7 8.5
: Total Traders: 233 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 51 62 68 80 35 11 185 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 72,288 :
: Positions :
: 45,401 30,800 2,066 22 292 2,418 26,311 1,502 5,841 2,502 1,932 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 :
: 2,643 -846 -5 22 39 -387 2,909 -334 -867 -5 250 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 62.8 42.6 2.9 0.0 0.4 3.3 36.4 2.1 8.1 3.5 2.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 86 :
: 42 26 . . . 5 17 . 6 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 27,320 :
: Positions :
: 10,481 25,317 0 95 452 14,615 0 40 566 0 875 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 :
: -1,805 -1,350 0 95 11 575 0 -16 -100 0 -775 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.4 92.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 53.5 0.0 0.1 2.1 0.0 3.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 9 19 0 . . 5 0 . . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as May moved through the delivery cycle. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop months and July closed on a firm note for the week. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active again this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Rice in Texas and Louisiana is in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1588 July. Support is at 1505, 1498, and 1438 July, with resistance at 1550, 1562, and 1572 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,341 :
: Positions :
: 5,669 9,804 62 0 0 2,774 700 459 1,154 87 1,040 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 :
: 17 -118 -106 0 0 -126 -145 -10 -56 22 152 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.5 73.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 20.8 5.2 3.4 8.7 0.7 7.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53 :
: 16 17 . 0 0 12 . . 10 6 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on reports of new Chinese demand and forecasts for some freezing temperatures over the weekend in important areas of the Corn Belt. It is possible that futures have seen at least a short term low. China bought well over 600,000 tons of US Corn last week to give the market a demand boost when it really needed it. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, but it is unclear if the employees will go back to work at this time. Cattle and hog producers are seeing much less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand. The processors are opening again but not all workers are going back to work due to fears about their health. It was very cold over the weekend and freezes were reported in some areas of the Midwest and Great Plains. Some of the crops could be lost and will need to be replanted.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 323 and 346 July. Support is at 320, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 327, 332, and 340 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 303 and 311 July. Support is at 295, 289, and 285 July, and resistance is at 303, 306, and 309 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,775,306
: Positions :
: 94,045 340,346 422,920 626,992 676,291 411,938 127,283 1,555,894 1,566,840: 219,412 208,466
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 (Change in open interest: -14,497) :
: -8,177 23,671 -3,277 -11,653 -29,082 10,510 -3,528 -12,597 -12,215: -1,900 -2,282
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.3 19.2 23.8 35.3 38.1 23.2 7.2 87.6 88.3: 12.4 11.7
: Total Traders: 786 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 119 171 174 352 334 48 29 619 624:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,744 :
: Positions :
: 1,108 2,502 86 0 0 258 0 0 644 16 193 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.6 66.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 17.2 0.4 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 7 10 . 0 0 . 0 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed last week wjth Soybeans a little higher and Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil mostly a little lower. Soybeans found support after some significant purchases from China and on some weather premium that arrived late in the week. China used the break in prices to buy at least 300,000 tons of Soybeans and possibly more. About 120,000 tons of sales to unknown destinations was confirmed by USDA on Friday and more confirmations are expected. The news buoyed a market in search of demand. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Weather became more important late in the week as the weekend was to turn very cold with freezing temperatures forecast for many areas. Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week. It is turning warmer this week so what damage was done over the weekend will be all the damage for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 842, 832, and 830 July, and resistance is at 857, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 973,256
: Positions :
: 76,765 79,726 267,974 343,726 505,026 210,575 58,180 899,039 910,905: 74,216 62,350
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 (Change in open interest: -2,450) :
: 3,857 -681 2,965 -9,008 -4,291 2,174 996 -12 -1,011: -2,438 -1,439
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 8.2 27.5 35.3 51.9 21.6 6.0 92.4 93.6: 7.6 6.4
: Total Traders: 568 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 162 105 177 197 190 53 28 496 435:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 500,798
: Positions :
: 33,050 59,640 120,302 203,371 266,660 105,933 23,915 462,656 470,518: 38,143 30,281
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 (Change in open interest: -6,041) :
: -2,700 -2,377 -357 -8,906 677 2,125 -5,014 -9,838 -7,071: 3,796 1,030
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.6 11.9 24.0 40.6 53.2 21.2 4.8 92.4 94.0: 7.6 6.0
: Total Traders: 315 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 74 89 96 89 39 22 246 240:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 459,415
: Positions :
: 29,110 50,175 80,565 191,288 274,966 109,402 25,654 410,365 431,360: 49,050 28,055
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 (Change in open interest: 9,695) :
: -346 2,282 6,251 4,937 2,535 -511 -1,337 10,331 9,730: -636 -35
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 10.9 17.5 41.6 59.9 23.8 5.6 89.3 93.9: 10.7 6.1
: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 54 68 91 80 37 17 221 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments Palm Oil closed a little lower after making new lows for the move on the weekly charts. Soybean Oil was higher last week and Canola was also higher. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil were hurt by the lack of bio fuels demand, but the demand loss appears to be part of the market price now. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other bio fuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for bio fuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the Coronavirus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans and Soybean Oil along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. Weekly chart trends have turned up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 July. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 471.00, 474.00, and 478.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 July, with resistance at 2100, 2120, and 2180 July.

DJ Malaysia May. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 344,983 Tons, Up 11.9%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May. 1-10 period are estimated up 11.9% on month at 344,983 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., is expected to issue its estimate later Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-10 April 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 159,808 113,085
RBD Palm Oil 27,465 18,860
RBD Palm Stearin 27,650 15,160
Crude Palm Oil 33,400 70,165
Total* 344,983 308,224
Major importers of Malaysian palm oil:
China
European Union
India & Subcontinent
Middle East
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 182,860 :
: Positions :
: 157,488 105,553 417 905 1,242 4,767 48,779 2,362 2,464 9,126 13,280 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2020 :
: -3,100 258 -50 -39 9 1,256 -1,797 250 -346 -715 88 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 86.1 57.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.6 26.7 1.3 1.3 5.0 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 210 :
: 32 46 . 4 . 9 53 7 27 52 14 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week but big rains possible on Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+43 May
+132 May
+53 May
+53 July
+12 July
N/A
June
+44 July
+49 July
+55 July

July
+44 July
+49 July
+56 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 7
WINNIPEG, May 7 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 452.40 -13.00 June 2020 up 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 477.20 10.00 June 2020 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver 492.20 25.00 June 2020 up 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 264,492 lots, or 11.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,345 5,346 5,305 5,305 5,343 5,335 -8 107 1,385
Jul-20 5,049 5,097 5,020 5,045 5,042 5,036 -6 576 1,584
Sep-20 4,583 4,628 4,493 4,540 4,572 4,547 -25 256,431 132,722
Nov-20 4,135 4,157 4,101 4,127 4,128 4,129 1 28 522
Jan-21 4,056 4,099 4,043 4,059 4,056 4,061 5 7,345 17,268
Mar-21 4,086 4,105 4,070 4,089 4,086 4,087 1 5 38
Corn
Turnover: 542,561 lots, or 11.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,015 2,016 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,006 -1 1,333 8,617
Jul-20 2,037 2,042 2,019 2,021 2,037 2,029 -8 12,670 50,406
Sep-20 2,060 2,067 2,045 2,045 2,062 2,055 -7 456,688 833,566
Nov-20 2,078 2,080 2,061 2,062 2,074 2,069 -5 5,747 3,419
Jan-21 2,092 2,096 2,075 2,077 2,091 2,086 -5 63,699 148,988
Mar-21 2,106 2,108 2,087 2,088 2,103 2,098 -5 2,424 1,992
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,247,534 lots, or 34.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,703 2,705 2,670 2,670 2,691 2,694 3 561 1,020
Jul-20 2,641 2,667 2,621 2,627 2,650 2,647 -3 39,933 83,276
Aug-20 2,745 2,760 2,715 2,719 2,739 2,742 3 14,242 11,710
Sep-20 2,755 2,775 2,730 2,735 2,753 2,755 2 1,001,027 1,749,580
Nov-20 2,788 2,809 2,767 2,771 2,785 2,791 6 10,463 12,966
Dec-20 2,788 2,842 2,788 2,796 2,820 2,828 8 35 352
Jan-21 2,826 2,843 2,797 2,801 2,813 2,824 11 180,998 392,891
Mar-21 2,787 2,800 2,761 2,761 2,766 2,782 16 275 1,140
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,000,260 lots, or 44.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,530 4,530 4,530 4,530 4,464 4,530 66 60 6,192
Jun-20 – – – 4,506 4,530 4,506 -24 0 11
Jul-20 4,606 4,770 4,606 4,710 4,640 4,720 80 20 27
Aug-20 4,458 4,458 4,458 4,458 4,526 4,458 -68 1 6
Sep-20 4,406 4,464 4,392 4,410 4,384 4,428 44 946,295 408,468
Oct-20 4,410 4,418 4,386 4,394 4,356 4,398 42 57 336
Nov-20 4,420 4,518 4,418 4,442 4,400 4,430 30 81 194
Dec-20 4,494 4,546 4,490 4,490 4,472 4,510 38 7 275
Jan-21 4,588 4,632 4,564 4,578 4,564 4,600 36 53,723 94,211
Feb-21 – – – 4,610 4,610 4,610 0 0 19
Mar-21 4,798 4,832 4,688 4,832 4,772 4,782 10 16 18
Apr-21 – – – 4,696 4,696 4,696 0 0 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 404,473 lots, or 21.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,410 5,410 5,410 5,410 5,480 5,410 -70 3 5,787
Jul-20 – – – 5,410 5,410 5,410 0 0 5
Aug-20 5,464 5,464 5,418 5,418 5,410 5,440 30 2 4
Sep-20 5,398 5,426 5,352 5,364 5,386 5,392 6 365,987 428,538
Nov-20 5,512 5,512 5,426 5,426 5,476 5,454 -22 3 416
Dec-20 5,544 5,556 5,508 5,524 5,508 5,532 24 28 35
Jan-21 5,480 5,522 5,456 5,466 5,468 5,490 22 38,438 93,526
Mar-21 5,540 5,580 5,540 5,580 5,466 5,572 106 12 30
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322