About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – May 7
For the week ended Apr 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 244.8 135.3 26176.6 25552.2 3749.9 2134.1
hrw 49.8 30.6 9874.7 9289.1 1411.4 929.1
srw -9.9 2.8 2398.8 3381.3 173.4 230.7
hrs 152.1 71.9 7739.3 6981.0 1243.6 484.8
white 47.2 10.0 5222.6 5393.8 831.7 277.5
durum 5.7 20.0 941.2 507.0 89.8 212.0
corn 774.6 97.5 37521.0 46344.8 13419.4 2813.4
soybeans 653.1 177.5 39706.0 44866.2 5520.1 1225.4
soymeal 131.4 39.8 9536.8 10327.1 2333.7 216.3
soyoil 18.9 2.7 1015.3 686.1 304.3 7.6
upland cotton 370.3 55.9 15924.2 14013.8 5608.1 2436.5
Pima cotton 2.4 0.0 546.7 701.2 148.8 35.3
sorghum 64.3 65.0 3604.7 1565.4 1483.1 98.0
barley 0.0 0.0 49.8 61.3 10.7 31.0
rice 61.5 0.0 3191.7 2861.2 675.6 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 07
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 08, 2020 33 Apr 16, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL May. 08, 2020 204 May 04, 2020

DJ Canadian 2020/21 Acreage Summary – May 7
WINNIPEG–The following table is a recap of Statistics
Canada’s acreage report as of March 31, 2020. Pre-report
expectations are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are
in million acres.
CROP PROJECTIONS 2020/21 2019/20
March
Barley 5.900 – 7.700 7.250 7.402
Canola 20.000 – 22.000 20.615 20.956
Corn 3.400 – 3.800 3.815 3.695
Flax 0.900 – 1.100 0.942 0.937
Lentils 3.500 – 4.500 3.709 3.781
Oats 3.500 – 3.750 3.833 3.606
Peas 3.900 – 4.400 4.279 4.333
Soybeans 5.100 – 5.700 5.220 5.714
All Wheat* 24.250 – 26.700 25.427 24.604
Durum 5.270 – 6.800 5.228 4.894
*All wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and
winter wheat remaining after winterkill

DJ Canadian Grain/Oilseed Stocks Summary – StatsCan – May 7
WINNIPEG – The following table is a recap of Statistics
Canada’s stocks report for the period ended March 31, 2020.
Figures are in million metric tons.
Total Stocks Total Stocks 5-year avg
March 31/20 March 31/19 (2015-19)
Barley 3.208 4.118 3.553
Canola 8.925 10.180 8.872
Flaxseed 0.263 0.302 0.403
Oats 1.710 1.537 1.783
All wheat 17.810 17.537 16.813
Durum 3.208 4.118 3.365
Lentils 1.120 1.482 1.189
Peas 1.850 1.879 1.785
By Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of March 31, 2020 – StatsCan – May 7
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oil seed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of March 31, 2020, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
Mar 31 Mar 31 Mar 31 Mar 31 Mar 31 Mar 31
2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019
Barley 3,138 2,371 391 306 3,529 2,677
Canaryseed 36 59 12 13 48 72
Canola 7,430 8,842 1,495 1,338 8,925 10,180
Chickpeas 246 200 21 25 267 225
Corn 5,545 5,874 2,474 2,428 8,018 8,302
Flaxseed 216 243 47 60 263 302
Lentils 950 1,305 170 177 1,120 1,482
Mustard 94 99 16 26 110 125
Oats 1,341 1,299 369 239 1,710 1,537
Peas 1,445 1,490 405 389 1,850 1,879
Rye 106 97 30 15 136 112
Soybeans 1,721 2,042 1,129 1,212 2,850 3,254
Sunflower 113 102 3 11 115 113
All wheat 13,784 13,078 4,026 4,459 17,810 17,537
Durum 2,443 3,105 765 1,013 3,208 4,118
By Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Global Food Prices Fall For Third Month as Coronavirus Saps Demand
By Will Horner
Global food prices fell in April to their lowest level in 15 months, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic prompted a sharp drop in demand while national lockdowns created logistical challenges for food-supply chains.
The UN FAO’s Food Price Index dropped to 165.5 points, a 3.4% fall from March and its third consecutive monthly decline.
While the price of all foodstuffs tracked by the index fell, declines were steepest for sugar prices. The FAO’s Sugar Price subindex fell 14.6% from March to a 13-year low.
Sugar prices have dropped dramatically in recent weeks as oil prices have crashed, knocking demand for biofuel ethanol which is made from sugar, and driving sugar mills to produce more of the sweetener which in turn drags down prices.
Stay-at-home measures put in place across the world to slow the spread of the virus had hit demand for meat and driven a 2.7% decline in the FAO’s Meat Price subindex, the FAO said.
“The pandemic is hitting both the demand and supply sides for meat, as restaurant closures and reduced household incomes lead to lower consumption and labor shortages on the processing side are impacting just-in-time production systems in major livestock producing countries,” Upali Galketi Aratchilage, senior economist at the FAO, said.
The FAO’s index also registered a 5.2% month-on-month drop in vegetable-oil prices and a 3.6% drop in dairy prices.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in range trading and on improving conditions for Winter Wheat growth here at home and around the world. The weather in the Great Plains has been less than favorable but could be starting to get better. It was cold and part of the crop froze, then it turned warm and dry. Some showers are possible in the region and somewhat cooler temperatures are in the forecast longer term. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia is likely to get some very beneficial rains this week. The rains in Russia would come at a time when the crop most needs them. The forecasts call for big rains that would really help the crops in most areas, but far southern areas would stay dry. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. The Great Plains have reduced production ideas for HRW areas. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Ideas are that the warmer and drier weather is greatly assisting in the planting progress, but planting progress remains behind the five-year average.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers on Saturday and Monday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers on Saturday and Monday Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers on Friday and Sunday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 512, 506, and 499 July, with resistance at 525, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 470, 468, and 462 July, with resistance at 489, 496, and 508 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 502, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 514, 518, and 520 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher in light volume trading. May closed sharply higher as deliveries continued for the month. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active this week despite some rains in the south yesterday and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain and remains slow. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Texas and Louisiana Rice is now in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1460, 1450, and 1444 July, with resistance at 1504, 1548, and 1562 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower. There was no demand news to support the market. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. These orders are starting to be lifted now and more people are starting to drive. Russia and Saudi Arabia have said that world Crude Oil production would be 10 million barrels a day less did little for the market as consumption is even less. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Ethanol demand improved in the EIA data yesterday but processor profitability is still negative. Driving will be significantly less either way although it will be improved. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, but it is unclear if the employees will go back to work at this time. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and hog producers and poultry producers are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced. The prospect of a renewed trade war with China over Coronavirus concerns also was negative. President Trump has threatened to place tariffs on Chinese goods again on ideas that the virus started in a Chinese lab and the seriousness of the epidemic was underplayed by Chinese government.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 686,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 308, 301, and 288 July, and resistance is at 318, 322, and 327 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 294 July. Support is at 285, 281, and 278 July, and resistance is at 298, 302, and 306 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on the renewed trade tensions with China and on good planting conditions in the Midwest and Great Plains. Soybeans found support after some significant purchases from China earlier in the week but that demand did not show up again yesterday. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in the very near term. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations. The prospect of a renewed trade war with China over Coronavirus concerns also was negative. President Trump has threatened to place tariffs on Chinese goods again on ideas that the virus started in a Chinese lab instead of in the open air market and the seriousness of the epidemic was underplayed by the Chinese.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 830, 818, and 812 July, and resistance is at 842, 857, and 861 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday and Canola was a little higher. Palm Oil was hurt by the lack of bio fuels demand, but the demand loss appears to be part of the market price now. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other bio fuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for bio fuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the Coronavirus. However, the threat of a renewed trade war between the US and China hurt demand ideas. Canola was firm on the weaker Canadian Dollar. Buying came ahead of the release of planting intentions in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 462.00, 459.00, and 455.00 July, with resistance at 468.00, 471.00, and 474.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 July, with resistance at 2010, 2100, and 2120 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+43 May
+142 May
+53 May
+53 July
+12 July
N/A
June
+44 July
+49 July
+55 July

July
+44 July
+49 July
+56 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 5
WINNIPEG, May 5 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 450.60 -13.00 May 2020 dn 2.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 473.30 10.00 May 2020 dn 0.30
Basis: Vancouver 489.30 25.00 May 2020 up 0.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 512.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 502.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 490.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 500.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 515.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 505.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 492.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 502.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 530.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 500.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 150.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3225)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 225,297 lots, or 10.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,348 5,348 5,286 5,320 5,292 5,309 17 492 1,834
Jul-20 5,039 5,039 5,000 5,030 4,977 5,023 46 361 1,394
Sep-20 4,578 4,594 4,540 4,563 4,540 4,565 25 218,705 133,216
Nov-20 4,148 4,150 4,106 4,106 4,122 4,125 3 41 505
Jan-21 4,055 4,062 4,036 4,043 4,051 4,046 -5 5,690 16,876
Mar-21 4,106 4,220 4,062 4,062 4,091 4,103 12 8 37
Corn
Turnover: 474,722 lots, or 9.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,044 2,048 2,000 2,029 2,040 2,008 -32 15,829 15,608
Jul-20 2,061 2,061 2,040 2,046 2,061 2,054 -7 13,104 51,617
Sep-20 2,086 2,090 2,068 2,071 2,088 2,080 -8 398,613 864,634
Nov-20 2,102 2,102 2,082 2,083 2,101 2,093 -8 2,696 5,243
Jan-21 2,117 2,119 2,098 2,100 2,117 2,110 -7 42,009 144,865
Mar-21 2,123 2,127 2,109 2,110 2,125 2,120 -5 2,471 1,442
Soymeal
Turnover: 704,935 lots, or 19.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,675 2,700 2,675 2,690 2,671 2,693 22 113 1,825
Jul-20 2,675 2,680 2,657 2,657 2,667 2,667 0 26,962 87,152
Aug-20 2,718 2,748 2,718 2,731 2,729 2,738 9 10,844 11,393
Sep-20 2,757 2,765 2,744 2,747 2,746 2,754 8 587,442 1,741,742
Nov-20 2,784 2,795 2,776 2,779 2,775 2,786 11 4,444 10,196
Dec-20 2,803 2,807 2,792 2,800 2,801 2,800 -1 18 347
Jan-21 2,800 2,806 2,788 2,791 2,786 2,797 11 74,314 342,719
Mar-21 2,762 2,769 2,743 2,743 2,756 2,756 0 798 973
Palm Oil
Turnover: 800,765 lots, or 34.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,374 4,446 4,370 4,414 4,430 4,414 -16 695 6,221
Jun-20 4,408 4,430 4,408 4,430 4,532 4,410 -122 6 11
Jul-20 4,690 4,690 4,406 4,486 4,530 4,470 -60 21 24
Aug-20 – – – 4,466 4,466 4,466 0 0 8
Sep-20 4,300 4,376 4,282 4,342 4,350 4,336 -14 743,181 409,810
Oct-20 4,260 4,336 4,256 4,290 4,274 4,284 10 86 336
Nov-20 4,300 4,390 4,300 4,390 4,344 4,362 18 23 197
Dec-20 4,396 4,440 4,344 4,434 4,386 4,398 12 25 276
Jan-21 4,480 4,552 4,448 4,528 4,508 4,510 2 56,720 88,766
Feb-21 4,610 4,610 4,610 4,610 4,628 4,610 -18 3 19
Mar-21 4,582 4,636 4,582 4,636 4,678 4,616 -62 5 16
Apr-21 – – – 4,690 4,710 4,690 -20 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 329,143 lots, or 17.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,388 5,398 5,388 5,398 5,384 5,392 8 102 8,084
Jul-20 – – – 5,434 5,448 5,434 -14 0 6
Aug-20 5,410 5,410 5,410 5,410 5,384 5,410 26 1 4
Sep-20 5,300 5,388 5,284 5,356 5,334 5,348 14 302,539 421,628
Nov-20 5,376 5,450 5,376 5,442 5,344 5,444 100 64 412
Dec-20 5,468 5,528 5,468 5,528 5,476 5,496 20 3 31
Jan-21 5,390 5,468 5,370 5,440 5,424 5,434 10 26,427 85,749
Mar-21 5,426 5,532 5,426 5,532 5,550 5,466 -84 7 19
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322