About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

 

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to a little higher, with only KC Wheat moving a little lower on better than expected crop conditions. The weather in the Great Plains has been less than favorable. It was cold and part of the crop froze, then it turned warm and dry. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia is likely to get some very beneficial rains this week. The rains in Russia would come at a time when the crop most needs them. The forecasts call for big rains that would really help the crops in most areas, but far southern areas would stay dry. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. The Great Plains have reduced production ideas for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a couple of weeks ago. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Ideas are that the warmer and drier weather is greatly assisting in the planting progress, but planting progress remains behind the five-year average.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers on Saturday and Monday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers on Saturday and Monday Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers on Friday and Sunday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 487 July. Support is at 506, 499, and 488 July, with resistance at 525, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 476, 470, and 468 July, with resistance at 489, 496, and 508 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 502, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 514, 518, and 520 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher in light volume trading. May closed a little lower as deliveries continued for the month. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active this week despite some rains in the south yesterday and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain and remains slow. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Texas and Louisiana Rice is now in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1450, 1444, and 1432 July, with resistance at 1504, 1548, and 1562 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was little higher after trading lower for the first part of the day. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. These orders are starting to be lifted now and more people are starting to drive. Russia and Saudi Arabia have said that world Crude Oil production would be 10 million barrels a day less did little for the market as consumption is even less. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way although it will be improved. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, but it is unclear if the employees will go back to work at this time. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and hog producers and poultry producers are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced. The prospect of a renewed trade war with China over Coronavirus concerns also was negative. President Trump has threatened to place tariffs on Chinese goods again on ideas that the virus started in a Chinese lab and the seriousness of the epidemic was underplayed by Chinese government.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 308, 301, and 288 July, and resistance is at 317, 322, and 327 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 294 July. Support is at 285, 281, and 278 July, and resistance is at 298, 302, and 306 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed a little higher as the trade tensions with China resurfaced. Soybeans found support after some significant purchases from China. The news buoyed the market again as it is in search of demand. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in the very near term. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations. The prospect of a renewed trade war with China over Coronavirus concerns also was negative. President Trump has threatened to place tariffs on Chinese goods again on ideas that the virus started in a Chinese lab instead of in the open air market and the seriousness of the epidemic was underplayed by the Chinese.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 830, 818, and 812 July, and resistance is at 857, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 July, and resistance is at 296.00, 298.00, and 301.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower and Canola was a little higher. Palm Oil was hurt by the lack of bio fuels demand, but the demand loss appears to be part of the market price now. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other bio fuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for bio fuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the Coronavirus. However, the threat of a renewed trade war between the US and China hurt demand ideas. Meanwhile, Canola found selling due to weakness in Chicago Soybeans and Soybean Oil but stable prices this week in Chicago have helped Canola hold in Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 462.00, 459.00, and 455.00 July, with resistance at 468.00, 471.00, and 474.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1970, 1940, and 1910 July, with resistance at 2100, 2120, and 2180 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+43 May
+142 May
+53 May
+53 July
+12 July
N/A
June
+44 July
+49 July
+55 July

July
+44 July
+49 July
+56 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 5
WINNIPEG, May 5 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 450.60 -13.00 May 2020 dn 2.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 473.30 10.00 May 2020 dn 0.30
Basis: Vancouver 489.30 25.00 May 2020 up 0.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 512.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 502.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 490.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 500.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 515.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 505.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 492.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 502.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 530.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 500.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 150.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3225)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 227,264 lots, or 10.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,300 5,330 5,244 5,330 5,209 5,292 83 893 2,171
Jul-20 4,922 5,028 4,921 5,010 4,937 4,977 40 302 1,221
Sep-20 4,566 4,590 4,480 4,583 4,565 4,540 -25 219,015 132,146
Nov-20 4,064 4,133 4,064 4,130 4,158 4,122 -36 77 492
Jan-21 4,052 4,076 4,025 4,055 4,058 4,051 -7 6,963 16,615
Mar-21 4,053 4,100 4,053 4,079 4,079 4,091 12 14 34
Corn
Turnover: 345,786 lots, or 7.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,026 2,050 2,026 2,048 2,035 2,040 5 1,439 29,347
Jul-20 2,057 2,065 2,055 2,060 2,050 2,061 11 5,317 50,694
Sep-20 2,090 2,094 2,083 2,086 2,076 2,088 12 297,501 820,431
Nov-20 2,098 2,106 2,095 2,100 2,086 2,101 15 1,571 5,286
Jan-21 2,104 2,125 2,104 2,117 2,101 2,117 16 38,232 140,278
Mar-21 2,119 2,131 2,118 2,124 2,107 2,125 18 1,726 1,944
Soymeal
Turnover: 770,406 lots, or 21.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,676 2,849 2,619 2,694 2,676 2,671 -5 759 1,923
Jul-20 2,670 2,676 2,656 2,676 2,654 2,667 13 36,030 88,341
Aug-20 2,708 2,742 2,706 2,739 2,710 2,729 19 8,356 11,840
Sep-20 2,740 2,758 2,734 2,758 2,725 2,746 21 637,394 1,726,974
Nov-20 2,773 2,789 2,764 2,788 2,754 2,775 21 5,146 9,240
Dec-20 2,812 2,812 2,783 2,802 2,773 2,801 28 16 352
Jan-21 2,787 2,798 2,776 2,797 2,764 2,786 22 82,449 336,017
Mar-21 2,751 2,765 2,749 2,762 2,734 2,756 22 256 819
Palm Oil
Turnover: 663,622 lots, or 28.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,500 4,500 4,374 4,374 4,510 4,430 -80 481 6,326
Jun-20 4,654 4,654 4,352 4,554 4,536 4,532 -4 8 12
Jul-20 4,364 4,650 4,364 4,650 4,632 4,530 -102 17 22
Aug-20 4,486 4,486 4,448 4,448 4,364 4,466 102 2 8
Sep-20 4,360 4,408 4,308 4,342 4,424 4,350 -74 613,481 365,212
Oct-20 4,318 4,374 4,256 4,268 4,402 4,274 -128 275 334
Nov-20 4,358 4,514 4,290 4,330 4,384 4,344 -40 116 194
Dec-20 4,336 4,472 4,336 4,406 4,488 4,386 -102 211 277
Jan-21 4,500 4,556 4,480 4,502 4,570 4,508 -62 49,023 81,927
Feb-21 4,632 4,690 4,590 4,602 4,764 4,628 -136 4 19
Mar-21 4,678 4,680 4,678 4,680 4,698 4,678 -20 4 16
Apr-21 – – – 4,710 4,730 4,710 -20 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 273,658 lots, or 14.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,332 5,452 5,320 5,388 5,422 5,384 -38 261 8,184
Jul-20 – – – 5,448 5,448 5,448 0 0 6
Aug-20 5,422 5,422 5,346 5,346 5,360 5,384 24 2 3
Sep-20 5,358 5,380 5,310 5,314 5,388 5,334 -54 237,581 427,326
Nov-20 5,320 5,396 5,320 5,396 5,474 5,344 -130 3 412
Dec-20 5,476 5,476 5,476 5,476 5,512 5,476 -36 1 30
Jan-21 5,460 5,470 5,396 5,398 5,468 5,424 -44 35,810 85,402
Mar-21 – – – 5,550 5,550 5,550 0 0 16
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322