About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher last week but could not take out the previous week’s highs. Futures held support and higher prices are still indicated. Support is coming from hopes and ideas of improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed a sharp increase in sales with China the featured buyer. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is possible here and in Europe.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 51.13 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,727 bales, from 3,727 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 5910 July. Support is at 5450, 5410, and 5340 July, with resistance of 5760, 5850 and 6050 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 224,931
: Positions :
: 30,770 42,255 51,653 61,534 105,949 67,891 13,814 211,848 213,671: 13,083 11,260
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -4,745) :
: -2,362 -5,074 -1,727 37 3,760 -1,630 -2,329 -5,682 -5,371: 937 626
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 18.8 23.0 27.4 47.1 30.2 6.1 94.2 95.0: 5.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 88 76 56 61 42 20 206 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower for the week after making new highs for the move. Trends are still up in the market. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Nielsen said two weeks ago that consumer demand had risen 45.6% in the four weeks ending April 11 to 11.44 million gallons. The average price was the highest in at least two years at $7.23 per gallon. The market has held firm since then. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at 70.4 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 115.00 and 123.00 July. Support is at 111.00, 110.00, and 108.00 July, with resistance at 117.00, 118.00, and 121.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,703 :
: Positions :
: 7,644 9,384 783 10 23 1,162 1,331 93 867 656 1,566 :
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 :
: -268 88 74 7 1 -4 191 35 94 -13 122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 55.8 68.5 5.7 0.1 0.2 8.5 9.7 0.7 6.3 4.8 11.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 17 14 4 . . 6 8 . 16 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York but higher in London. New York was lower in the face of depressed consumer and roaster demand in the US and Europe. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are no outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.820 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 438 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 99.00 July, and resistance is at 109.00, 112.00 and 115.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1190, 1150, and 1110 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1250 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 292,386
: Positions :
: 22,294 15,896 82,546 114,949 168,254 63,420 18,466 283,208 285,162: 9,178 7,225
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 9,069) :
: 151 3,832 3,253 4,374 -1,954 931 3,739 8,708 8,870: 360 199
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 5.4 28.2 39.3 57.5 21.7 6.3 96.9 97.5: 3.1 2.5
: Total Traders: 356 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 68 109 113 111 46 24 309 268:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply higher on signs of revived demand. The ICE Sugar 11 deliveries were heavy at more than 44,000 contracts but found takers in the trade houses. Crude Oil and products prices rallied a little bit as well. The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm last week but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal. ICE said that 44,449 notices were posted against May delivery of Sugar 11 in New York.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1320 and 1420 October. Support is at 1080, 1060, and 1050 October, and resistance is at 1160, 1180, and 1230 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 379.00 and 408.00 August. Support is at 340.00, 328.00, and 323.00 August, and resistance is at 353.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,160,280
: Positions :
: 73,561 149,458 202,485 529,287 659,297 286,346 74,010 1,091,679 1,085,250: 68,601 75,030
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -5,112) :
: -485 15,349 794 -4,647 -16,350 1,919 -3,566 -2,419 -3,773: -2,692 -1,339
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 12.9 17.5 45.6 56.8 24.7 6.4 94.1 93.5: 5.9 6.5
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 70 63 85 73 37 21 211 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday, but higher for the week on news that the Coronavirus had found its way to West Africa. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.346 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2260, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2520 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1950 and 2060 July. Support is at 1900, 1860, and 1850 July, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 246,401
: Positions :
: 21,990 37,724 55,550 110,383 127,172 47,269 19,746 235,193 240,192: 11,208 6,209
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 5,394) :
: 1,405 2,907 -484 3,633 1,837 406 1,122 4,960 5,381: 434 12
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 15.3 22.5 44.8 51.6 19.2 8.0 95.5 97.5: 4.5 2.5
: Total Traders: 212 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 42 70 46 41 36 19 181 151:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322