About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 4, 2020 22 Apr 1, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL May. 4, 2020 1,032 Apr 29, 2020
ROUGH RICE May. 4, 2020 65 Apr 14, 2020
CORN May. 4, 2020 221 Feb 27, 2020
KC WHEAT May. 4, 2020 9 Apr 20, 2020

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower for the week in SRW and Spring Wheat markets, but held support in HRW markets. The big negative for the market is still better weather for Europe and Russia. Europe has been getting some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia is likely to get some very beneficial rains this week. The rains in Russia would come at a time when the crop most needs them, but it is uncertain just how much will fall. Some forecasts call for only very light rains while others call for big rains that would really help the crops. The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected. The Great Plains have been a different story and reduced production ideas are floated for HRW areas. It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas after a freeze a couple of weeks ago. The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather. It has been warm and mostly dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops. Ideas are that the warmer and drier weather is greatly assisting in the planting progress.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers on Saturday and Monday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers on Saturday and Monday Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers on Friday and Sunday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 487 July. Support is at 507, 499, and 488 July, with resistance at 525, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 470, 468, and 462 July, with resistance at 489, 496, and 508 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 503, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 526 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 453,802
: Positions :
: 58,265 78,988 128,067 82,171 164,132 156,299 39,348 424,802 410,534: 29,000 43,268
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -50,313) :
: -2,956 9,372 -40,393 3,027 -11,165 -7,298 -4,624 -47,621 -46,810: -2,692 -3,504
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 17.4 28.2 18.1 36.2 34.4 8.7 93.6 90.5: 6.4 9.5
: Total Traders: 347 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 93 108 71 105 49 22 268 272:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 240,891
: Positions :
: 28,670 45,537 56,639 57,297 105,853 76,761 11,543 219,367 219,573: 21,524 21,319
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -21,212) :
: -2,565 2,824 -14,479 -1,193 -5,907 -1,588 -2,272 -19,826 -19,833: -1,386 -1,379
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 18.9 23.5 23.8 43.9 31.9 4.8 91.1 91.1: 8.9 8.9
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 41 48 59 71 81 37 11 190 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 69,777 :
: Positions :
: 42,758 31,646 2,071 0 254 2,805 23,402 1,836 6,707 2,507 1,683 :
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 :
: -3,862 -6,810 -159 0 -31 57 3,255 38 -135 -14 -1,401 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.3 45.4 3.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 33.5 2.6 9.6 3.6 2.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 90 :
: 42 29 . 0 . 5 16 . 8 6 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 29,499 :
: Positions :
: 12,287 26,668 0 0 441 14,041 0 56 665 0 1,650 :
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 :
: -95 381 -13 0 -11 882 0 -4 -87 0 -150 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.7 90.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 47.6 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.0 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 12 21 0 . . 6 0 . . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in old crop months and lower in new crop months. May Rice has put on a show as domestic supplies ran low in the cash market. The domestic situation remains tight. New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting should be active this week in the state and northern sections of the state are reported to be planted already. Mississippi has also had problems planting the crop due to too much rain. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Some Texas and Louisiana Rice is now in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1444, 1432, and 1403 July, with resistance at 1504, 1548, and 1562 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,394 :
: Positions :
: 5,652 9,922 168 0 0 2,900 845 469 1,210 65 887 :
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 :
: -1,259 -731 2 0 0 249 0 8 174 -70 -614 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.2 74.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 21.7 6.3 3.5 9.0 0.5 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 16 18 . 0 0 13 . . 12 4 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower early in the week, but held support and bounced late in the week. It is possible that futures have seen at least a short-term low. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Russia and Saudi Arabia have said that world Crude Oil production would be 10 million barrels a day less did little for the market as consumption is even less. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants. President Trump signed an order forcing the plants to reopen with protections from lawsuits and with protections for employees, but it is unclear if the employees will go back to work at this time. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 115,800 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 301, 328, and 295 July, and resistance is at 308, 315, and 323 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 288 and 294 July. Support is at 281, 278, and 275 July, and resistance is at 308, 315, and 323 July.

USDA MARCH GRAIN CRUSHINGs
412 mil bu of corn for fuel alcohol versus 433 mil last month and 442 mil a year ago
DDGS produced were 1.655 mt versus 1.814 mt a month ago and 1.867 mt last year

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,789,803
: Positions :
: 102,222 316,675 426,197 638,645 705,373 401,428 130,810 1,568,492 1,579,055: 221,312 210,748
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -119,164) :
: 185 8,846 -60,686 -42,156 -38,400 -10,692 -20,099 -113,349 -110,338: -5,815 -8,826
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.7 17.7 23.8 35.7 39.4 22.4 7.3 87.6 88.2: 12.4 11.8
: Total Traders: 768 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 109 171 175 350 332 48 28 614 617:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher last week. Soybeans found support after some significant purchases from China. China used the break in prices to buy at least 300,000 tons of US Soybeans and possibly more. The news buoyed a market in search of demand. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in coming weeks. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 841, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 857, 861, and 868 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 286.00, and 283.00 July, and resistance is at 296.00, 298.00, and 301.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 975,705
: Positions :
: 72,908 80,407 265,008 352,734 509,317 208,401 57,184 899,051 911,916: 76,654 63,789
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -83,410) :
: 3,060 -7,747 -38,783 -43,939 -13,333 -2,137 -17,186 -81,799 -77,049: -1,611 -6,361
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.5 8.2 27.2 36.2 52.2 21.4 5.9 92.1 93.5: 7.9 6.5
: Total Traders: 560 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 150 108 172 196 189 52 28 483 434:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 506,840
: Positions :
: 35,749 62,017 120,659 212,276 265,983 103,809 28,929 472,493 477,589: 34,346 29,251
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -13,527) :
: 4,426 1,863 -11,071 -4,598 -285 -2,931 -3,303 -14,174 -12,796: 647 -732
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.1 12.2 23.8 41.9 52.5 20.5 5.7 93.2 94.2: 6.8 5.8
: Total Traders: 325 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 69 94 102 88 40 26 263 245:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 449,720
: Positions :
: 29,456 47,893 74,314 186,351 272,431 109,913 26,991 400,035 421,630: 49,685 28,090
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -4,740) :
: -261 1,677 -848 -180 -3,193 -3,436 -1,322 -4,725 -3,686: -15 -1,055
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.5 10.6 16.5 41.4 60.6 24.4 6.0 89.0 93.8: 11.0 6.2
: Total Traders: 264 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 57 65 91 82 39 18 220 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil and Soybean Oil were higher last week and Canola was also higher. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil were hurt by the lack of bio fuels demand, but the demand loss appears to be part of the market price now. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other bio fuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for bio fuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the Coronavirus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans and Soybean Oil along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve. Weekly chart trends have turned up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 464.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 468.00, 471.00, and 474.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 2030, 1990, and 1970 July, with resistance at 2120, 2180, and 2230 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 184,769 :
: Positions :
: 160,588 105,295 466 944 1,233 3,511 50,576 2,112 2,810 9,841 13,192 :
: Changes from: April 21, 2020 :
: -4,126 -6,771 11 -62 -272 -198 1,373 -776 -7 1,168 -3,754 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 86.9 57.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.9 27.4 1.1 1.5 5.3 7.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 209 :
: 30 47 4 5 . 8 53 6 28 51 14 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+47 May
+142 May
+58 May
+59 May
+12 May
N/A
June
+41 July
+54 July
+55 July

July
+41 July
+60 July
+60 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 30
WINNIPEG, April 30 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 447.30 -15.60 May 2020 dn 0.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 474.40 10.00 May 2020 up 2.40
Basis: Vancouver 490.40 22.00 May 2020 up 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322