Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was higher again yesterday on very strong weekly export sales that featured significant sales to China. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy. The same is expected to happen here as the states and the stores slowly reopen. In fact, many stores in states that are opening remain closed due to health concerns.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 52.41 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,727 bales, from 3,727 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 5910 July. Support is at 5450, 5410, and 5340 July, with resistance of 5760, 5850 and 6050 July.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Apr 30
As of Apr 24. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
May 20 177 4,067 -3,890 138 2,008 -1,870
Jul 20 26,654 18,371 8,283 16,889 12,282 4,607
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 18,542 20,320 -1,778 19,966 20,517 -551
Mar 21 12,629 12,294 335 2,971 2,043 928
May 21 6,050 5,988 62 382 456 -74
Jul 21 9,442 10,148 -706 880 904 -24
Dec 21 3,500 3,969 -469 6,264 6,893 -629
Mar 22 603 616 -13 13 13 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 77,747 75,923 1,824 47,517 45,130 2,387
May 20 14 8,840 -8,826
Jul 20 104,580 101,091 3,489
Oct 20 116 118 -2
Dec 20 48,773 49,731 -958
Mar 21 12,227 12,254 -27
May 21 2,414 2,249 165
Jul 21 2,987 2,724 263
Dec 21 6,456 5,254 1,202
Mar 22 44 41 3
May 22 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 3 0 3
Total 177,614 182,302 -4,688
General Comments: FCOJ was higher once again yesterday. Trends remain up in the market. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. In fact, demand was up more than 45% in the latest Nielsen estimates. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports and supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. Temperatures in the south have moderated from very hot levels this week. The mid season Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 115.00 and 123.00 July. Support is at 112.00, 110.00, and 108.00 July, with resistance at 117.00, 118.00, and 121.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London as the US Dollar lost to most currencies including the Real from Brazil. The Real remains very cheap against world currencies. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are less outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.820 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 438 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 99.00 July, and resistance is at 109.00, 112.00 and 115.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1150, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1250 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher along with the stronger Brazilian Real and higher Crude Oil futures. Trends remain mostly down. Overall weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the price action suggests that they are succeeding. The Real was higher but remains at very low levels and is helping to push prices lower. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India and that the market has been shut due to the Coronavirus. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 910 October. Support is at 990, 950, and 930 October, and resistance is at 1050, 1080, and 1100 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 285.00 August. Support is at 313.00, 303.00, and 300.00 August, and resistance is at 328.00, 334.00, and 342.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. There was no additional news regarding the Ivory Coast President and Secretary General that have contracted the Coronavirus. The virus has made it to West Africa and has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. The Coronavirus also helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in West Africa is good.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.280 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2260, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2520 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1950 and 2060 July. Support is at 1900, 1860, and 1850 July, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 July.