About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ IGC Cuts 2020-21 Grain Production Projections Amid Dry Weather
By Will Horner
Unseasonably dry weather across Europe was harming crop prospects, the International Grains Council warned Thursday, leading it to cut its output projections for the 2020-21 season.
Important growing regions on the Black Sea and across France and Germany have been experiencing a period of dry weather following an unusually wet winter, which has caused concern among analysts that crops could be negatively affected.
While some parts of Europe have received some much-needed rainfall in recent days, levels remain far below what is needed to sustain crops, analysts said.
The IGC cut its production projections for the 2020-21 season by 5 million metric tons because of what it described as “less than ideal conditions” in Europe and the Black Sea. It now projects a total production of 2.218 billion tons for the season.
The poor weather comes given concern the coronavirus pandemic and national lockdown put in place to slow its spread were having an effect on supply and demand.
The IGC cut its grain demand outlook for the current season by 11 million tons to 2.181 billion tons, largely because the pandemic has led to a sharp drop in demand for ethanol which can be made from corn. Last month, the body warned the virus was also presenting logistical challenges that were affecting supply.
The body also slightly raised its production forecasts for the current season by 1 million tons to 2.176 billion tons as it said a decline in corn output was balanced by larger than expected wheat and barley harvests.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 30
For the week ended Apr 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 467.4 155.1 25931.7 25461.6 4074.9 1998.8
hrw 189.4 63.6 9824.9 9254.7 1560.4 898.5
srw 11.9 18.4 2408.7 3382.7 200.2 227.9
hrs 165.1 40.5 7587.2 6951.7 1306.3 412.9
white 85.7 19.6 5175.5 5389.9 874.8 267.5
durum 15.3 13.0 935.6 482.6 133.3 192.0
corn 1356.7 339.0 36746.4 46057.3 14045.2 2715.8
soybeans 1078.3 105.0 39052.9 45073.4 5307.5 1047.8
soymeal 163.6 60.1 9405.4 10176.4 2462.4 176.5
soyoil 29.8 0.0 996.4 669.7 317.9 4.9
upland cotton 434.8 148.5 15553.9 13778.0 5608.1 2380.6
pima cotton 0.4 0.0 544.4 699.1 149.7 35.3
sorghum 306.0 0.0 3540.3 1510.4 1614.2 33.0
barley 0.3 0.0 49.9 61.3 11.1 31.0
rice 28.7 0.0 3130.1 2814.7 688.2 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Apr 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 1, 2020 22 Dec 26, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL May. 1, 2020 1,466 Apr 28, 2020
ROUGH RICE May. 1, 2020 7 Apr 9, 2020
CORN May. 1, 2020 223 Oct 31, 2019
KC WHEAT May. 1, 2020 9 Dec 27, 2019

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on forecasts for beneficial rains in Europe and into Russia. World cash markets in general are much cheaper than those prices offered from the US. That will help keep any US export sales low and routine. The world weather is important for new crop prices. US weather has been dry in the central and southern Great Plains and very wet in southern and eastern sections of the Midwest as well as the Midsouth, Delta, and Southeast. It has been dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies. Europe has also been dry but was expected to get some very beneficial rains this week. It remains dry in the Ukraine and into southern Russia, but they could also get beneficial rains in the next couple of weeks. Australia is in mostly good condition after several years of drought. Rains are currently forecast for eastern areas but western areas should stay dry. Argentina is still harvesting its Corn and Soybeans crops and has not really planted its Winter Wheat crop yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers on Saturday and Monday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers on Saturday and Monday Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers on Friday and Sunday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 487 July. Support is at 507, 499, and 488 July, with resistance at 525, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 458 July. Support is at 468, 462, and 458 July, with resistance at 479, 489, and 496 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 503, 497, and 491 July, and resistance is at 516, 520, and 526 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed with the May contract ready to go into delivery and exploding higher. July was sharply lower in early trading, then came back to close with small losses. The new crop months displayed much less volatility. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting was active last week in the state but has been shut down again in all areas. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well, but that crops in Arkansas and Mississippi need drier weather to get into the ground. Overall planting and emerging progress is now behind the five-year average.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1444, 1432, and 1403 July, with resistance at 1482, 1548, and 1562 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on demand concerns brought about by the Coronavirus pandemic. USDA reported that Corn planting progress was above the trade expectations and that implies that a big crop is coming this Fall. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. President Trump indicated yesterday that he was willing to sign a Defense Production order to open the meats processors with some health protections and that could help move the backlog of Cattle and Hogs and start feeding again. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut [plants down due to infected employees in the plants. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 301, 328, and 295 July, and resistance is at 308, 315, and 323 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 288 and 294 July. Support is at 281, 278, and 275 July, and resistance is at 308, 315, and 323 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher. The demand has been slow with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. The Real was higher against the US Dollar once again yesterday but remains at very weak levels. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Some forecasts for improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in coming weeks. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations. President Trump has indicated that he is willing to sign a Defense Production order to open meats processing plants with some health restrictions imposed so it is hoped that Cattle and Hogs will start to move and that feed operations can improve.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 808 and 781 July. Support is at 830, 818, and 812 July, and resistance is at 843, 857, and 861 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 285.00 and 279.00 July. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 July, and resistance is at 291.00, 294.00, and 296.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2670, 2820, and 2910 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on outside market strength as Palm Oil in Dalian rallied. Soybean Oil and Crude Oil were also higher. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the virus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybean Oil and closed mixed. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 452.00 July, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1990, 1970, and 1940 July, with resistance at 2070, 2120, and 2180 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers early and late this week. Temperatures should average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans
Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May
+43 May
+149 May
+55 May
+59 May
+12 May
N/A
June
+36 July
+55 July
+55 July

July
+36 July
+55 July
+60 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 427.46 -29.54 May 2020 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 466.30 7.00 Jul 2020 dn 2.40
Basis: Vancouver 477.30 18.00 Jul 2020 dn 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 537.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 532.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 515.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 540.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 535.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 517.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 525.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded May 560.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 520.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,170.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 157.00 +09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3010)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 307,535 lots, or 14.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,250 5,261 5,101 5,252 5,216 5,209 -7 12,191 3,144
Jul-20 5,047 5,047 4,873 4,986 4,981 4,937 -44 480 1,089
Sep-20 4,619 4,636 4,512 4,549 4,629 4,565 -64 287,821 122,567
Nov-20 4,185 4,220 4,106 4,128 4,171 4,158 -13 537 472
Jan-21 4,079 4,091 4,033 4,051 4,090 4,058 -32 6,493 17,545
Mar-21 4,088 4,088 4,060 4,069 4,121 4,079 -42 13 42
Corn
Turnover: 660,714 lots, or 13.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,047 2,047 2,021 2,026 2,051 2,035 -16 18,740 70,614
Jul-20 2,069 2,072 2,040 2,047 2,073 2,050 -23 19,571 50,413
Sep-20 2,091 2,093 2,067 2,074 2,094 2,076 -18 571,093 826,144
Nov-20 2,102 2,102 2,079 2,082 2,104 2,086 -18 3,446 5,309
Jan-21 2,117 2,117 2,093 2,096 2,117 2,101 -16 45,177 130,136
Mar-21 2,121 2,121 2,101 2,107 2,124 2,107 -17 2,687 1,897
Soymeal
Turnover: 705,743 lots, or 19.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,685 2,696 2,658 2,664 2,687 2,676 -11 11,593 2,364
Jul-20 2,659 2,666 2,649 2,655 2,653 2,654 1 29,935 83,083
Aug-20 2,726 2,727 2,704 2,708 2,708 2,710 2 9,202 10,983
Sep-20 2,730 2,735 2,718 2,729 2,723 2,725 2 591,338 1,759,413
Nov-20 2,761 2,764 2,749 2,756 2,751 2,754 3 3,531 9,027
Dec-20 2,770 2,777 2,769 2,777 2,772 2,773 1 4 346
Jan-21 2,768 2,776 2,758 2,768 2,761 2,764 3 60,104 328,809
Mar-21 2,740 2,740 2,729 2,735 2,732 2,734 2 36 773
Palm Oil
Turnover: 539,440 lots, or 23.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,484 4,568 4,474 4,520 4,546 4,510 -36 6,472 6,536
Jun-20 4,666 4,666 4,454 4,590 4,798 4,536 -262 29 13
Jul-20 4,752 4,846 4,494 4,558 4,810 4,632 -178 33 28
Aug-20 – – – 4,364 4,530 4,364 -166 0 10
Sep-20 4,390 4,464 4,386 4,462 4,362 4,424 62 504,551 316,714
Oct-20 4,356 4,500 4,356 4,400 4,350 4,402 52 35 97
Nov-20 4,428 4,428 4,368 4,400 4,364 4,384 20 66 183
Dec-20 4,650 4,650 4,380 4,424 4,586 4,488 -98 102 190
Jan-21 4,528 4,602 4,528 4,600 4,516 4,570 54 28,137 74,485
Feb-21 4,764 4,764 4,764 4,764 4,596 4,764 168 1 19
Mar-21 4,760 4,782 4,630 4,782 4,702 4,698 -4 14 16
Apr-21 – – – 4,730 4,734 4,730 -4 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 239,677 lots, or 12.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,446 5,446 5,402 5,436 5,418 5,422 4 1,944 8,902
Jul-20 – – – 5,448 5,444 5,448 4 0 6
Aug-20 – – – 5,360 5,358 5,360 2 0 3
Sep-20 5,384 5,412 5,358 5,378 5,364 5,388 24 217,245 418,409
Nov-20 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,408 5,474 66 2 413
Dec-20 5,516 5,516 5,510 5,510 5,454 5,512 58 2 30
Jan-21 5,468 5,486 5,444 5,466 5,434 5,468 34 20,484 77,683
Mar-21 – – – 5,550 5,550 5,550 0 0 16
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322