About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher due to the weekly USDA crop condition reports. The reports showed that Winter Wheat suffered more damage from the freeze last week than most traders had assumed. Spring Wheat planting progress was slower than expected as northern producers concentrated on getting the Corn planting done. Demand for US Wheat will still be a problem. World cash markets in general are much cheaper than those prices offered from the US. That will help keep any US export sales low and routine. The world weather is important for new crop prices. US weather has been dry in the central and southern Great Plains and very wet in southern and eastern sections of the Midwest as well as the Midsouth, Delta, and Southeast. It has been dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies. Europe has also been dry but was expected to get some very beneficial rains this week. It remains dry in the Ukraine and into southern Russia, but they could also get beneficial rains in the next couple of weeks. Australia is in mostly good condition after several years of drought. Argentina is still harvesting its Corn and Soybeans crops and has not really planted its Winter Wheat crop yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 515, 503, and 495 May. Support is at 517, 514, and 506 May, with resistance at 535, 538, and 552 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 469 and 449 May. Support is at 469, 466, and 461 May, with resistance at 489, 497, and 502 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 492 and 481 May. Support is at 494, 488, and 482 May, and resistance is at 503, 507, and 514 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in both old crop and new crop months. May traded in a very wide range due to First Notice Day coming and July followed suit. The new crop months displayed much less volatility. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting was active last week in the state but has been shut down again in all areas. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well, but that crops in Arkansas and Mississippi need drier weather to get into the ground. Overall planting and emerging progress is now behind the five-year average.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1600, 1575, and 1523 May, with resistance at 1720, 1732, and 1748 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and May Corn appears headed for a retest of the recent lows near 300 per bushel. USDA reported that Corn planting progress was above the trade expectations and that implies that a big crop is coming this Fall. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. President Trump indicated yesterday that he was willing to sign a Defense Production order to open the meats processors with some health protections and that could help move the backlog of Cattle and Hogs and start feeding again. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut [plants down due to infected employees in the plants. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 301, 3298, and 295 May, and resistance is at 310, 315, and 320 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 313 May. Support is at 296, 292, and 289 March, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 315 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little lower. Soybean Oil was higher. The demand has been slow with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. The Real was higher against the US Dollar yesterday but remains at very weak levels. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Some forecasts for improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in coming weeks. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations. President Trump has indicated that he is willing to sign a Defense Production order to open meats processing plants with some health restrictions imposed so it is hoped that Cattle and Hogs will start to move and that feed operations can improve.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 798 May. Support is at 821, 808, and 800 May, and resistance is at 834, 849, and 854 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 281.00, 278.00, and 275.00 May, and resistance is at 285.00, 287.00, and 291.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2420 and 2260 May. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 May, with resistance at 2560, 2630, and 2710 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher on ideas of less Indonesia selling into the world market. Palm Oil was hurt by the lack of bio fuels demand. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other bio fuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for bio fuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the virus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybean Oil. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 108,860 tons of US Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 May. Support is at 458.00, 454.00, and 453.00 May, with resistance at 466.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 1970, 1940, and 1910 July, with resistance at 2070, 2120, and 2180 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers early and late this week. Temperatures should average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+46 May
+149 May
+55 May
+57 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+43 May
+55 May
+57 May

June
+37 July
+55 July
+55 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 427.46 -29.54 May 2020 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 466.30 7.00 Jul 2020 dn 2.40
Basis: Vancouver 477.30 18.00 Jul 2020 dn 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 527.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 500.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 530.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 522.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 502.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 510.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,130.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Taded
May 148.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3430)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 126,601 lots, or 5.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,188 5,247 5,184 5,238 5,187 5,216 29 7,850 10,506
Jul-20 4,971 5,015 4,958 4,978 5,018 4,981 -37 209 895
Sep-20 4,625 4,654 4,611 4,624 4,628 4,629 1 115,464 105,942
Nov-20 4,170 4,234 4,137 4,170 4,140 4,171 31 48 451
Jan-21 4,095 4,107 4,074 4,076 4,089 4,090 1 3,026 18,908
Mar-21 4,119 4,137 4,111 4,111 4,118 4,121 3 4 40
Corn
Turnover: 274,034 lots, or 5.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,054 2,060 2,048 2,052 2,054 2,051 -3 13,911 86,203
Jul-20 2,075 2,079 2,068 2,069 2,075 2,073 -2 8,764 53,503
Sep-20 2,100 2,102 2,091 2,094 2,098 2,094 -4 225,118 889,499
Nov-20 2,110 2,111 2,100 2,105 2,110 2,104 -6 3,176 5,237
Jan-21 2,121 2,124 2,114 2,116 2,123 2,117 -6 22,100 139,454
Mar-21 2,127 2,128 2,121 2,126 2,132 2,124 -8 965 2,686
Soymeal
Turnover: 785,530 lots, or 21.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,678 2,699 2,678 2,682 2,708 2,687 -21 11,998 12,853
Jul-20 2,668 2,668 2,644 2,650 2,681 2,653 -28 46,950 84,005
Aug-20 2,709 2,714 2,697 2,706 2,736 2,708 -28 10,753 10,921
Sep-20 2,721 2,733 2,715 2,719 2,750 2,723 -27 650,995 1,797,945
Nov-20 2,749 2,760 2,743 2,749 2,775 2,751 -24 5,188 8,819
Dec-20 2,766 2,777 2,766 2,768 2,780 2,772 -8 27 346
Jan-21 2,765 2,772 2,754 2,758 2,786 2,761 -25 59,572 327,400
Mar-21 2,763 2,763 2,726 2,729 2,753 2,732 -21 47 760
Palm Oil
Turnover: 578,779 lots, or 25.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,560 4,592 4,492 4,494 4,552 4,546 -6 5,848 8,761
Jun-20 4,826 4,828 4,714 4,714 4,790 4,798 8 4 7
Jul-20 4,682 4,888 4,682 4,778 4,826 4,810 -16 22 20
Aug-20 – – – 4,530 4,544 4,530 -14 0 10
Sep-20 4,356 4,394 4,332 4,346 4,326 4,362 36 543,746 362,610
Oct-20 4,396 4,396 4,330 4,332 4,374 4,350 -24 64 80
Nov-20 4,452 4,452 4,340 4,396 4,370 4,364 -6 121 147
Dec-20 4,660 4,662 4,580 4,596 4,674 4,586 -88 72 131
Jan-21 4,532 4,546 4,488 4,504 4,480 4,516 36 28,900 75,014
Feb-21 – – – 4,596 4,560 4,596 36 0 18
Mar-21 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,672 4,702 30 2 20
Apr-21 – – – 4,734 4,704 4,734 30 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 235,088 lots, or 12.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,420 5,450 5,390 5,396 5,420 5,418 -2 2,142 10,475
Jul-20 – – – 5,444 5,446 5,444 -2 0 6
Aug-20 – – – 5,358 5,358 5,358 0 0 3
Sep-20 5,374 5,388 5,336 5,344 5,346 5,364 18 210,783 425,522
Nov-20 5,332 5,452 5,332 5,402 5,414 5,408 -6 10 411
Dec-20 5,474 5,506 5,410 5,496 5,488 5,454 -34 6 30
Jan-21 5,440 5,456 5,416 5,428 5,414 5,434 20 22,145 76,928
Mar-21 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,472 5,550 78 2 16
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322