About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher last week and closed above the previous weekly low. Support is coming from hopes and ideas of improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed a modest increase in sales after a couple of weeks of big net cancellations. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers early in the week, then dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly below normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 51.58 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,962 bales, from 3,962 bales yesterday. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 5910 July. Support is at 5450, 5410, and 53400 July, with resistance of 5760, 5850 and 6050 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday. Trends have turned up in the market again after retrenching between 105 and 110 basis May futures. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports and supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 118.00 and 127.00 May. Support is at 109.00, 105.00, and 102.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 117.00, and 120.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 27
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
4/11/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
4/11/2020 4/13/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 309.59 273.77 13.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.49 6.35 2.2%
Total 316.07 280.12 12.8%
Pack
Bulk 5.41 6.00 -9.9%
Retail/Institutional 0.30 1.35 -77.4%
Total Pack 5.71 7.35 -22.3%
Reprocessed -2.87 -3.51 -18.2%
Pack from Fruit 2.85 3.84 -26.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.10 0.42 -76.3%
Imports – Foreign 4.54 12.41 -63.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.54 0.32 69.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.69 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.02 -29.4%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 317.12 290.12 9.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.79 7.69 -11.7%
Total 323.91 297.81 8.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.08 5.06 -19.3%
Exports 0.63 0.76 -16.6%
Total (Bulk) 4.71 5.82 -19.0%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic -4.31 1.25 245.6%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) -4.31 1.25 245.6%
Total Movement 0.40 7.07 -94.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 312.40 284.30 9.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.03 6.45 -6.5%
Ending Inventory 318.43 290.75 9.5%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
11-Apr-20 13-Apr-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 105.48 97.69 8.0%
Retail/Institutional 32.04 33.99 -5.7%
Total Pack 137.52 131.68 4.4%
Reprocessed -70.53 -69.79 1.1%
Pack from Fruit 66.99 61.90 8.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.87 -0.60 209.7%
Imports – Foreign 78.59 160.68 -51.1%
Domestic Receipts 9.50 3.40 179.6%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.26 0.04 629.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 14.97 3.28 356.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.10 0.88 25.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 449.44 432.78 3.8%
Retail/Institutional 37.86 39.91 -5.1%
Total 487.30 472.69 3.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 128.74 135.11 -4.7%
Domestic 8.29 13.37 -38.0%
Exports 137.04 148.48 -7.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 26.76 33.46 -20.0%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 26.76 33.46 -20.0%
Total Movement 163.80 181.94 -10.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 312.40 284.30 9.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.03 6.45 -6.5%
Ending Inventory 318.43 290.75 9.5%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York, but higher in London. New York moved lower in response to a weaker Brazilian Real and depressed consumer and roaster demand in the US and Europe. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are no outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 1.848 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.63 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 120 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 302 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 112.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 127.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1120, 1100, and 1070 May, and resistance is at 1210, 1220, and 1230 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and trends remain down. Weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the price action suggests that they are succeeding. The weaker Real is also pushing prices lower. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 910 October. Support is at 960, 930, and 900 October, and resistance is at 1020, 1050, and 1080 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 307.00 and 285.00 August. Support is at 306.00, 303.00, and 300.00 August, and resistance is at 321.00, 328.00, and 337.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed firm and London closed mixed. There was no additional news regarding the Ivory Coast President and Secretary General that have contracted the Coronavirus. The virus has made it to West Africa and has complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.257 million bags. ICE said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2260, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2520 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1950 and 2060 July. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1810 July, with resistance at 1910, 1930, and 1970 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322