About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 27
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 23, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/23/2020 04/16/2020 04/25/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 73 30,499 9,181
CORN 1,078,175 698,050 1,366,477 22,294,824 34,655,621
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 520 462
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 100 200 3,343 2,792
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 227,067 180,858 17,775 2,390,433 1,183,407
SOYBEANS 555,748 551,265 507,750 33,478,423 31,538,846
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 501,333 506,217 645,662 22,502,445 21,411,163
Total 2,362,323 1,936,490 2,537,937 80,700,487 88,801,472
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 26-Apr 19-Apr 2019 Avg
Cotton Planted 13 11 10 11
Corn Planted 27 7 12 31
Corn Emerged 3 2 4
Soybeans Planted 8 2 2 4
Sorghum Planted 20 19 19 23
Rice Planted 39 30 36 53
Rice Emerged 23 18 24 34
Peanuts Planted 6 2 6 6
Sugar beets Planted 37 18 22 45
Oats Planted 54 39 41 56
Oats Emerged
32 26 30 37
Winter Wheat Headed 21 14 16 25
Spring Wheat Planted 14 7 11 29
Spring Wheat Emerged 4 4 7
Barley Planted 24 16 25 36
Barley Emerged 8 3 5 11

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 4 11 31 47 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 9 30 50 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 6 28 49 15

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and Chicago SRW and Minneapolis made new lows for the move. Futures could rally early today in response to the USDA progress and condition estimates. The condition reports showed that Winter Wheat suffered more damage from the freeze last week than most traders had assumed. Spring Wheat planting progress was slower than expected as northern producers concentrated on getting the Corn planting done. Demand for US Wheat will still be a problem. World cash markets in general are much cheaper than those prices offered from the US. That will help keep any US export sales low and routine. The world weather is important for new crop prices. US weather has been dry in the central and southern Great Plains and very wet in southern and eastern sections of the Midwest as well as the Midsouth, Delta, and Southeast. It has been dry in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies. Europe has also been dry but was expected to get some very beneficial rains this week. It remains dry in the Ukraine and into southern Russia, but they could also get beneficial rains. Australia is in mostly good condition after several years of drought. Argentina is still harvesting its Corn and Soybeans crops and has not really planted its Winter Wheat crop yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 515, 503, and 495 May. Support is at 514, 506, and 498 May, with resistance at 535, 538, and 552 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 469 and 449 May. Support is at 469, 466, and 461 May, with resistance at 489, 497, and 502 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 492 and 481 May. Support is at 494, 488, and 482 May, and resistance is at 503, 507, and 514 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in both old crop and new crop months. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting was active last week in the state but has been shut down again in southern areas. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well, but that crops in Arkansas and Mississippi need drier weather to get into the ground. Overall planting and emerging progress is now behind the five-year average.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1600, 1575, and 1523 May, with resistance at 1720, 1732, and 1748 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and May Corn appears headed for a retest of the recent lows near 300 per bushel. USDA reported that Corn planting progress was above the trade expectations and that implies that a big crop is coming this Fall. The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand. Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus. The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people, meaning no one is driving and consuming gas. Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before. The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before. Driving will be significantly less either way. Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut [plants down due to infected employees in the plants. Wholesale beef and pork prices are up sharply, but cattle and hog producers are seeing very cheap prices and are liquidating herds. The Corn demand has been significantly reduced.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 301, 3298, and 295 May, and resistance is at 315, 320, and 323 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 306 and 313 May. Support is at 296, 292, and 289 March, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 315 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed a little lower. Soybeans found support after some significant purchases from China last week that led to hopes for new announcements of sales early this week. China used the break in prices to buy at least half a million tons of US old crop Soybeans and possibly more. The news buoyed a market in search of demand. The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil. The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal demand has been supported by logistical issues in Argentina. The Parana River has been very low and ships are not able to load the full amount of Soybeans or products. Demand has shifted to the US and also to Brazil. Some forecasts for improving rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina offer hope for improved logistics in coming weeks. The export meal demand has helped keep the US crush very strong. Domestic meal demand has suffered along with the demand for Corn due to reduced feed demand caused by the Coronavirus and the problems it has caused feed operations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 798 May. Support is at 825, 821, and 808 May, and resistance is at 834, 849, and 854 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 285.00, 283.00, and 281.00 May, and resistance is at 291.00, 294.00, and 297.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2420 and 2260 May. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 May, with resistance at 2560, 2630, and 2710 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher on ideas of less Indonesia selling into the world market. Palm Oil was hurt by the lack of bio fuels demand. The same factors affecting ethanol demand are affecting demand for other bio fuels. People are driving less due to the Coronavirus and even reduced Crude Oil production has not been enough to lift prices to profitable levels for bio fuels producers. Palm Oil had found some support from reduced production potential in Southeast Asia as workers are affected by the virus. Meanwhile, Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans along with a weaker Canadian Dollar. Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses. China has recently allowed Canadian Canola imports to resume, so demand could soon improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 454.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 461.00, 466.00, and 470.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1970 and 1710 July. Support is at 2000, 1970, and 1940 July, with resistance at 2070, 2120, and 2180 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers early and late this week. Temperatures should average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+46 May
+149 May
+55 May
+58 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+46 May
+55 May
+57 May

June
+42 July
+55 July
+55 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 427.46 -29.54 May 2020 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 466.30 7.00 Jul 2020 dn 2.40
Basis: Vancouver 477.30 18.00 Jul 2020 dn 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 525.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 527.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 510.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 545.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 515.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,110.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 146.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.362)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 134,326 lots, or 6.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,213 5,215 5,171 5,186 5,191 5,187 -4 6,751 13,811
Jul-20 5,019 5,049 5,007 5,010 5,018 5,018 0 122 791
Sep-20 4,629 4,648 4,604 4,625 4,626 4,628 2 125,331 111,421
Nov-20 4,128 4,152 4,128 4,147 4,142 4,140 -2 23 439
Jan-21 4,078 4,097 4,075 4,095 4,089 4,089 0 2,095 18,842
Mar-21 4,137 4,137 4,088 4,127 4,095 4,118 23 4 40
Corn
Turnover: 463,583 lots, or 9.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,053 2,063 2,040 2,054 2,053 2,054 1 25,227 98,110
Jul-20 2,074 2,083 2,068 2,072 2,074 2,075 1 8,295 56,414
Sep-20 2,099 2,108 2,091 2,096 2,098 2,098 0 383,772 901,454
Nov-20 2,112 2,116 2,103 2,106 2,111 2,110 -1 5,828 7,339
Jan-21 2,125 2,130 2,117 2,120 2,123 2,123 0 37,948 141,183
Mar-21 2,134 2,139 2,126 2,126 2,134 2,132 -2 2,513 2,667
Soymeal
Turnover: 993,686 lots, or 27.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,736 2,736 2,690 2,691 2,720 2,708 -12 12,301 21,809
Jul-20 2,715 2,715 2,659 2,661 2,694 2,681 -13 34,599 90,320
Aug-20 2,758 2,765 2,713 2,714 2,752 2,736 -16 12,633 11,031
Sep-20 2,774 2,777 2,728 2,730 2,765 2,750 -15 837,191 1,769,962
Nov-20 2,800 2,802 2,757 2,757 2,793 2,775 -18 4,651 8,737
Dec-20 2,798 2,798 2,778 2,778 2,808 2,780 -28 11 328
Jan-21 2,809 2,809 2,767 2,767 2,800 2,786 -14 92,183 322,025
Mar-21 2,774 2,774 2,738 2,739 2,769 2,753 -16 117 729
Palm Oil
Turnover: 683,884 lots, or 29.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,570 4,608 4,530 4,548 4,578 4,552 -26 6,750 11,363
Jun-20 – – – 4,790 4,790 4,790 0 0 9
Jul-20 4,848 4,916 4,728 4,752 4,782 4,826 44 27 15
Aug-20 – – – 4,544 4,544 4,544 0 0 10
Sep-20 4,344 4,350 4,298 4,324 4,330 4,326 -4 639,026 389,000
Oct-20 4,400 4,406 4,368 4,370 4,410 4,374 -36 51 35
Nov-20 4,380 4,380 4,364 4,380 4,492 4,370 -122 115 99
Dec-20 – – – 4,674 4,674 4,674 0 0 189
Jan-21 4,486 4,506 4,456 4,482 4,464 4,480 16 37,905 74,927
Feb-21 4,604 4,604 4,548 4,548 4,540 4,560 20 5 18
Mar-21 4,628 4,708 4,628 4,702 4,674 4,672 -2 5 20
Apr-21 – – – 4,704 4,706 4,704 -2 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 291,336 lots, or 15.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,420 5,466 5,372 5,402 5,450 5,420 -30 3,901 11,769
Jul-20 – – – 5,446 5,476 5,446 -30 0 6
Aug-20 – – – 5,358 5,386 5,358 -28 0 3
Sep-20 5,400 5,406 5,308 5,352 5,370 5,346 -24 262,058 437,258
Nov-20 – – – 5,414 5,414 5,414 0 0 409
Dec-20 5,432 5,526 5,410 5,464 5,502 5,488 -14 11 31
Jan-21 5,456 5,458 5,380 5,428 5,428 5,414 -14 25,366 77,866
Mar-21 – – – 5,472 5,472 5,472 0 0 16
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322