About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher last week and closed above the previous weekly low. Support is coming from hopes and ideas of improved demand for US Cotton. The weekly export sales report showed a modest increase in sales after a couple of weeks of big net cancellations. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. The hope is that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return, but this is not likely to be the case. Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover. As an example, Chinese stores have been open for several weeks but there has been no consumer rush to go to them and buy.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be mostly below normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have a few showers or dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 51.58 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,962 bales, from 3,962 bales yesterday. ICE said that 6 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 6 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 5910 July. Support is at 5450, 5410, and 53400 July, with resistance of 5760, 5850 and 6050 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 229,676
: Positions :
: 33,132 47,330 53,380 61,497 102,189 69,521 16,143 217,530 219,042: 12,146 10,634
: Changes from: April 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: -4,093) :
: 4,019 2,541 -1,451 -2,029 -3,377 -4,316 -565 -3,776 -2,851: -316 -1,241
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 20.6 23.2 26.8 44.5 30.3 7.0 94.7 95.4: 5.3 4.6
: Total Traders: 283 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 102 85 56 63 41 20 211 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher on Friday and higher for the week. Trends have turned up in the market again after retrenching between 105 and 110 basis May futures. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice in any form. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Nielsen said last week that consumer demand had risen 45.6% in the four weeks ending April 11 to 11.44 million gallons. The average price was the highest in at least two years at $7.23 per gallon. Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at 70.4 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. The weather in Florida has become a mixed bag over the last few weeks. It has been very hot and dry in south Florida but the north has gotten a lot of rain. The midseason Oranges harvest is diminishing. Irrigation has been run several times per week in most areas. Color break is reported on late variety Oranges. More signs of early bloom and new growth on trees are reported. Favorable weather is reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting on Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 118.00 and 127.00 May. Support is at 109.00, 105.00, and 102.00 May, with resistance at 112.00, 115.00, and 117.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 24
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
4/4/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
4/4/2020 4/6/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 305.23 269.33 13.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.58 5.87 12.0%
Total 311.81 275.21 13.3%
Pack
Bulk 5.89 6.61 -10.9%
Retail/Institutional 0.36 1.80 -80.0%
Total Pack 6.25 8.41 -25.7%
Reprocessed -2.93 -3.93 -25.5%
Pack from Fruit 3.32 4.48 -25.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.09 -0.08 12.7%
Imports – Foreign 8.31 6.14 35.5%
Domestic Receipts 0.22 0.44 -50.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.05 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.01 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 316.68 278.52 13.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.94 7.67 -9.5%
Total 323.62 286.19 13.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 6.70 4.52 48.0%
Exports 0.40 0.22 78.2%
Total (Bulk) 7.10 4.75 49.4%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.45 1.32 -65.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.45 1.32 -65.9%
Total Movement 7.55 6.07 24.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 309.59 273.77 13.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.49 6.35 2.2%
Ending Inventory 316.07 280.12 12.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
4-Apr-20 6-Apr-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 100.07 91.69 9.1%
Retail/Institutional 31.74 32.64 -2.8%
Total Pack 131.81 124.34 6.0%
Reprocessed -67.66 -66.28 2.1%
Pack from Fruit 64.15 58.05 10.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.77 -1.03 72.7%
Imports – Foreign 74.05 148.27 -50.1%
Domestic Receipts 8.96 3.08 191.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.26 0.04 629.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 14.97 2.59 477.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.09 0.86 26.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 441.91 416.43 6.1%
Retail/Institutional 37.56 38.56 -2.6%
Total 479.47 454.99 5.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 124.66 130.05 -4.1%
Domestic 7.66 12.62 -39.3%
Exports 132.32 142.66 -7.2%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 31.07 32.21 -3.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 31.07 32.21 -3.5%
Total Movement 163.40 174.88 -6.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 309.59 273.77 13.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.49 6.35 2.2%
Ending Inventory 316.07 280.12 12.8%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,499 :
: Positions :
: 7,913 9,296 709 4 22 1,166 1,140 58 773 669 1,444 :
: Changes from: April 14, 2020 :
: -474 -684 56 -1 0 5 235 58 -58 71 -835 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 58.6 68.9 5.3 0.0 0.2 8.6 8.4 0.4 5.7 5.0 10.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 17 14 . . . 6 8 . 12 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets last week. New York took a big hit lower on Friday in the face of depressed consumer and roaster demand in the US and Europe. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are no outlets for sales at this time. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.848 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 182 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 112.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 127.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1120, 1100, and 1070 May, and resistance is at 1210, 1220, and 1230 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 283,318
: Positions :
: 22,143 12,064 79,293 110,575 170,208 62,488 14,727 274,500 276,292: 8,818 7,026
: Changes from: April 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: -8,442) :
: 1,920 1,660 -263 -9,145 -9,381 444 268 -7,044 -7,715: -1,398 -728
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 4.3 28.0 39.0 60.1 22.1 5.2 96.9 97.5: 3.1 2.5
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 62 104 111 115 46 24 305 264:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
158,935 101,860 69,581 7,898 7,532 1,318
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 64.1% 43.8% 5.0% 4.7% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 56 47 13 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,651 39,731 14,937 3,409 4,152 17,276
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.9% 25.0% 9.4% 2.1% 2.6% 10.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
11 37 11 11 11 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,587 4,409
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 2.8%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and trends remain down. The recently weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm last week but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the price action suggests that they are succeeding. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 980 and 910 October. Support is at 990, 960, and 930 October, and resistance is at 1020, 1050, and 1080 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 307.00 and 285.00 August. Support is at 315.00, 312.00, and 309.00 August, and resistance is at 321.00, 328.00, and 337.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,165,392
: Positions :
: 74,046 134,109 201,691 533,934 675,647 284,427 77,576 1,094,098 1,089,023: 71,294 76,369
: Changes from: April 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: -144,473) :
: -4,669 12,243 -59,062 -59,177 -83,060 -14,923 -15,462 -137,830 -145,341: -6,643 868
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.4 11.5 17.3 45.8 58.0 24.4 6.7 93.9 93.4: 6.1 6.6
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 65 69 84 72 36 19 212 183:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
99,355 55,745 81,010 13,795 3,015 1,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.1% 81.5% 13.9% 3.0% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
109 41 39 11 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
12,617 3,911 4,138 4,641 779 2,586
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.7% 0.8% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 13 9 7 5 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,124 2,207
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 2.2%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday, but higher for the week on news that the Ivory Coast President and Secretary General had contracted the Coronavirus. The virus has made it to West Africa and has greatly complicated farming and marketing efforts. Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower. The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.234 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May NY contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 92 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2260, and 2220 July, with resistance at 2390, 2400, and 2520 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1950 and 2060 July. Support is at 1860, 1850, and 1810 July, with resistance at 1910, 1930, and 1970 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 241,007
: Positions :
: 20,585 34,818 56,035 106,750 125,334 46,862 18,624 230,233 234,811: 10,774 6,197
: Changes from: April 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 1,609) :
: 346 -1,147 -41 1,420 3,515 73 -1,087 1,798 1,240: -190 369
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 14.4 23.3 44.3 52.0 19.4 7.7 95.5 97.4: 4.5 2.6
: Total Traders: 206 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 40 66 46 40 36 16 175 143:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
329,738 179,954 233,300 43,169 12,651 18,492
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.6% 70.8% 13.1% 3.8% 5.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
133 49 46 12 4 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,604 5,768 13,719 3,074 930 42,202
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.5% 1.7% 4.2% 0.9% 0.3% 12.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 8 14 11 13 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,525 2,677
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.8%

DJ Asia Cocoa Grindings Fell 0.5% on Year in 1Q
By Lucy Craymer
Asian cocoa grindings in the first quarter fell 0.5% from a year earlier to 207,356 metric tons, according to figures issued by the Cocoa Association of Asia on Friday.
Grindings fell 8.6% from the fourth quarter, the industry group said.
Grindings refer to the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate and are often used as a proxy for chocolate demand.
The data reflect the compilation of grindings from Malaysia and from Cocoa Association of Asia members in Singapore and Indonesia.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322