About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

 

COTTON
General Comments Cotton drifted slightly higher in quiet trading. The export sales report featured net cancellations from China and Vietnam and highlighted the trouble in getting industry going again. China is open again and much of Southeast Asia is as well. However, consumers have been reluctant to rush out and buy new things and remain wary of another Coronavirus outbreak. Much of the selling was related to lost demand potential due to the Coronavirus. The Coronavirus has closed malls across America and stores are not selling clothes. Clothes for the US market made in Asia are not being ordered and there will be a lot of clothes for retail to move in the near future. In the meantime, Cotton is being produced and Africa especially is seeing backed up demand and has a lot more than normal to sell. Price in New York got very cheap and are now returning to those levels after a short rally last week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be mostly below normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have a few showers or dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 47.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 22,816 bales, from 22,816 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5190, 5110, and 4840 May, with resistance of 5450, 5490 and 5670 May.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Apr 16
As of Apr 10. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 20 6,889 8,482 -1,593 3,548 5,018 -1,470
Jul 20 17,348 16,973 375 10,923 9,983 940
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 20,036 19,539 497 20,051 20,147 -96
Mar 21 12,294 12,152 142 1,970 2,010 -40
May 21 5,573 5,555 18 466 532 -66
Jul 21 10,110 10,123 -13 862 906 -44
Dec 21 3,974 3,978 -4 5,890 5,179 711
Mar 22 616 616 0 13 13 0
May 22 100 100 0 0 0 0
Jul 22 50 50 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 76,990 77,568 -578 43,737 43,802 -65
Open Change
Int
May 20 34,615 71,351 -36,736
Jul 20 81,278 57,048 24,230
Oct 20 115 113 2
Dec 20 48,139 45,029 3,110
Mar 21 10,347 9,882 465
May 21 2,172 2,224 -52
Jul 21 2,670 2,624 46
Dec 21 4,700 3,803 897
Mar 22 41 41 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 184,077 192,115 -8,038

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday in quiet trading. Industry sources suggest that demand has improved as consumer has returned to FCOJ due to the Coronavirus. The demand remains strong enough to keep prices in a trading range and well above the lows seen only a few months ago. Grocery stores in many areas sold out and needed to restock, but this has been getting done. Consumers have returned to Juice and that is good news for moderate prices. There appear to be good supplies around and another crop is coming. The early and mid crop harvest is about over and the Valencia harvest is increasing. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Scattered showers have been falling in growing areas this week. Reports indicate that new crop fruit is progressing well, with new growth appearing on trees and flowers forming.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting on Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 108.00, 104.00, and 102.00 May, with resistance at 111.00, 115.00, and 117.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 16
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
3/28/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/28/2020 3/30/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 305.07 268.53 13.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.60 5.73 15.3%
Total 311.67 274.25 13.6%
Pack
Bulk 6.20 5.21 19.0%
Retail/Institutional 0.58 1.36 -57.5%
Total Pack 6.78 6.57 3.2%
Reprocessed -3.55 -3.37 5.5%
Pack from Fruit 3.23 3.21 0.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.05 -0.02 120.9%
Imports – Foreign 1.99 5.74 -65.3%
Domestic Receipts 0.28 0.44 -35.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.99 0.12 704.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.00 342.4%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 311.09 276.66 12.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.18 7.08 1.4%
Total 318.27 283.74 12.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.32 6.13 -13.2%
Exports 0.54 1.19 -55.0%
Total (Bulk) 5.86 7.32 -20.0%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.60 1.21 -50.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.60 1.21 -50.3%
Total Movement 6.46 8.53 -24.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 305.23 269.33 13.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.58 5.87 12.0%
Ending Inventory 311.81 275.21 13.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
28-Mar-20 30-Mar-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 94.18 85.08 10.7%
Retail/Institutional 31.38 30.85 1.7%
Total Pack 125.56 115.93 8.3%
Reprocessed -64.74 -62.35 3.8%
Pack from Fruit 60.83 53.58 13.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.68 -0.95 77.9%
Imports – Foreign 65.74 142.14 -53.7%
Domestic Receipts 8.74 2.63 231.7%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.21 0.04 493.6%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 14.97 2.59 477.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.09 0.86 26.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 430.45 407.25 5.7%
Retail/Institutional 37.20 36.76 1.2%
Total 467.65 444.01 5.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 117.97 125.52 -6.0%
Domestic 7.26 12.39 -41.4%
Exports 125.23 137.91 -9.2%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 30.62 30.89 -0.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 30.62 30.89 -0.9%
Total Movement 155.85 168.80 -7.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 305.23 269.33 13.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.58 5.87 12.0%
Ending Inventory 311.81 275.21 13.3%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and slightly lower in London. The commercials are playing the long side and the market is not going down. The chart trends are mixed in New York and still mostly down in London due to big production ideas, but producers are having trouble getting workers to pick and the exporters are having trouble getting workers for processing and loading. Brazil is currently reporting good conditions with a few showers. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Industry is still using certified stocks instead of trying to import from around the world.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.866 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 111.13 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 112.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 127.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1120, 1100, and 1070 May, and resistance is at 1210, 1220, and 1230 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed unchanged to mixed and London was higher. Concerns that ethanol production will not start to increase anytime soon is still a drag on futures prices, but London White Sugar futures rallied as there is little White Sugar coming from Asia. OPEC and Russia along with Mexico and Canada had agreed to cut production by about 10 million barrels per day. Coronavirus has cut demand by 20 million barrels per day so the production cuts will help but there needs to be a way to end the lockdown in various countries so people can start driving again. It has been dry in Sao Paulo to affect developing cane in the state. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the price action suggests that they are succeeding. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1000, 970, and 940 October, and resistance is at 1060, 1100, and 1130 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 347.00 and 362.00 August. Support is at 332.00, 327.00, and 320.00 August, and resistance is at 346.00, 349.00, and 353.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on news that the Ivory Coast President and Secretary General had contracted the Coronavirus. The market could not do much with the upside due to weak demand ideas. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower and the grind in Asia much lower. Chart trends are still turning down in both markets as the Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 476 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2170, 2160, and 2150 May, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2320 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1700, 1660, and 1520 May. Support is at 1780, 1740, and 1710 May, with resistance at 1840, 1850, and 1900 May.

DJ Asia Cocoa Grindings Fell 0.5% on Year in 1Q
By Lucy Craymer
Asian cocoa grinding in the first quarter fell 0.5% from a year earlier to 207,356 metric tons, according to figures issued by the Cocoa Association of Asia on Friday.
Grindings fell 8.6% from the fourth quarter, the industry group said.
Grindings refer to the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate and are often used as a proxy for chocolate demand.
The data reflect the compilation of grinding from Malaysia and from Cocoa Association of Asia members in Singapore and Indonesia.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322