About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower with SRW Wheat leading the way down on forecasts for improved moisture in parts of southern Russia and a higher US Dollar. Traders are watching the Russian situation near the Black Sea and it remains dry but this could change in the next 10 days to two weeks as rains are expected. The forecast is for light to moderate precipitation so the situation there might not improve all that much. It was cold in the Great Plains over the weekend, but ideas are that it was not cold enough to damage Wheat. It is still cold this week but temperatures should moderate over the weekend.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 520, 503, and 498 May. Support is at 525, 521, and 514 May, with resistance at 546, 552, and 562 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 468, 464, and 461 May, with resistance at 485, 490, and 492 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 482, 458, and 453 May. Support is at 506, 501, and 498 May, and resistance is at 515, 522, and 527 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in moderate volume trading. The domestic situation remains tight. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting was active last week in the state but has been shut down again. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is emerging well. Arkansas should get a window to plant next week. Mississippi needs drier weather.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1412, 1407, and 1395 May, with resistance at 1439, 1460, and 1474 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to mostly lower and Oats closed higher. Corn futures could not escape the bearish demand news wvwn though May closed with marginal gains on the day. All producer countries agreed to cut production by about 10 million barrels per day. The demand loss has been 20 million barrels per day so the lost production will only partly solve the problem. Ethanol demand will not improve in the short-term because people are not driving much due to the Coronavirus. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times. Ethanol stocks are increasing even with the reduced processing due to the lack of driving in the US. That means a lot less Corn demand.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 317, 313, and 303 May. Support is at 317, 314, and 311 May, and resistance is at 326, 328, and 329 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 288, 298, and 304 May. Support is at 279, 276, and 270 March, and resistance is at 290, 296, and 300 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower. Trends are turning down in all three markets. The NOPA crush showed extremely strong demand for Soybeans and production of meal and oil for March. It was considered a bullish report. Soybeans export demand is lacking and got no help from the stronger US Dollar. The trade is looking for China but China has not yet really come to the US to buy. The lack of demand for biofuels is hurting the Soybean Oil. Producer countries are working on an agreement to cut Crude Oil production by 10% but the demand has dropped even more so the agreement will only partially solve the problem.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 830, 827, and 816 May. Support is at 832, 831, and 814 May, and resistance is at 848, 854, and 862 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 289.00, 285.00, and 283.00 May, and resistance is at 294.00, 297.00, and 300.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2550 May. Support is at 2620, 2570, and 2520 May, with resistance at 2720, 2780, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Palm Oil was a little higher. Production is dropping. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus but buyers are not buying as import have been locked down in many cases. Demand has remained a big problem.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 453.00, 447,00, and 433.00 May. Support is at 455.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 461.00, 466.00, and 470.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2160 July, with resistance at 2290, 2340, and 2370 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers early and late this week. Temperatures should average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+51 May
+145 May
+55 May
+61 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+49 May
+55 May
+59 May

June
+50 July
+55 July
+59 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 16
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for April 16, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 427.20 -26.84 May 2020 up 5.36
Track Thunder Bay 467.70 10.00 May 2020 dn 1.70
Track Vancouver 477.70 20.00 May 2020 dn 1.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 570.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 557.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 537.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 572.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 560.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 605.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 550.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,340.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 168.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3675)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 259,432 lots, or 12.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,184 5,195 5,132 5,178 5,178 5,160 -18 29,872 39,507
Jul-20 4,835 4,947 4,835 4,896 4,930 4,893 -37 122 503
Sep-20 4,638 4,693 4,600 4,689 4,653 4,658 5 223,788 119,362
Nov-20 4,199 4,199 4,140 4,150 4,143 4,158 15 40 377
Jan-21 4,091 4,097 4,060 4,080 4,075 4,076 1 5,609 20,884
Mar-21 4,107 4,107 4,107 4,107 4,088 4,107 19 1 31
Corn
Turnover: 339,579 lots, or 7.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,024 2,026 2,011 2,023 2,026 2,018 -8 25,945 171,717
Jul-20 2,048 2,049 2,038 2,045 2,048 2,043 -5 5,746 54,643
Sep-20 2,065 2,070 2,057 2,065 2,069 2,063 -6 278,225 840,716
Nov-20 2,078 2,080 2,067 2,077 2,079 2,074 -5 5,471 8,523
Jan-21 2,087 2,096 2,082 2,085 2,093 2,087 -6 21,861 105,805
Mar-21 2,100 2,106 2,091 2,096 2,104 2,096 -8 2,331 1,462
Soymeal
Turnover: 877,773 lots, or 24.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,726 2,728 2,703 2,721 2,736 2,718 -18 84,377 141,805
Jul-20 2,711 2,712 2,698 2,709 2,726 2,705 -21 33,148 91,770
Aug-20 2,750 2,765 2,742 2,765 2,771 2,753 -18 9,128 10,087
Sep-20 2,763 2,778 2,755 2,771 2,783 2,768 -15 704,905 1,819,261
Nov-20 2,788 2,800 2,780 2,794 2,811 2,793 -18 4,215 7,797
Dec-20 2,803 2,828 2,803 2,810 2,816 2,812 -4 29 322
Jan-21 2,795 2,810 2,787 2,803 2,814 2,801 -13 41,939 251,742
Mar-21 2,770 2,778 2,769 2,770 2,777 2,772 -5 32 607
Palm Oil
Turnover: 977,583 lots, or 45.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,828 4,928 4,762 4,920 4,882 4,834 -48 76,358 41,771
Jun-20 4,932 5,066 4,932 5,066 4,934 4,998 64 2 9
Jul-20 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,918 4,998 80 1 14
Aug-20 4,634 4,804 4,634 4,804 4,780 4,734 -46 4 8
Sep-20 4,600 4,690 4,560 4,688 4,674 4,626 -48 887,743 299,295
Oct-20 4,576 4,770 4,576 4,706 4,738 4,670 -68 4 13
Nov-20 4,692 4,692 4,692 4,692 4,706 4,692 -14 1 7
Dec-20 4,738 4,738 4,720 4,720 4,770 4,728 -42 2 157
Jan-21 4,632 4,732 4,628 4,732 4,728 4,684 -44 13,465 34,023
Feb-21 – – – 4,862 4,862 4,862 0 0 12
Mar-21 4,894 4,982 4,894 4,982 4,962 4,926 -36 3 19
Apr-21 – – – 4,958 4,958 4,958 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 492,570 lots, or 27.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,596 5,660 5,562 5,644 5,664 5,608 -56 43,763 45,468
Jul-20 – – – 5,598 5,590 5,598 8 0 5
Aug-20 – – – 5,586 5,586 5,586 0 0 3
Sep-20 5,528 5,568 5,470 5,558 5,578 5,516 -62 437,495 452,752
Nov-20 5,592 5,618 5,496 5,618 5,634 5,566 -68 17 404
Dec-20 5,510 5,678 5,510 5,678 5,676 5,600 -76 4 18
Jan-21 5,590 5,612 5,526 5,596 5,618 5,562 -56 11,283 63,933
Mar-21 5,584 5,660 5,584 5,660 5,680 5,600 -80 8 15
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322