About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was mostly lower amid signs of halting demand even as mills and fabrics makers returned to work. Only May was higher as it gets ready to go into delivery. China is open again and much of Southeast Asia is as well. However, consumers have been reluctant to rush out and buy new things and remain wary of another Coronavirus outbreak. Much of the selling was related to lost demand potential due to the Coronavirus. The Coronavirus has closed malls across America and stores are not selling clothes. Clothes for the US market made in Asia are not being ordered and there will be a lot of clothes for retail to move in the near future. In the meantime, Cotton is being produced and Africa especially is seeing backed up demand and has a lot more than normal to sell. Price in New York got very cheap and are now returning to those levels after a short rally last week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions until showers return this weekend and Southeast will get scattered showers off and on this week in southern areas. Temperatures should be mostly below normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have a few showers or dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 47.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 22,816 bales, from 22,816 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -183,800 bales this year and 71,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 0 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5190, 5110, and 4840 May, with resistance of 5450, 5490 and 5670 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday in quiet trading. Industry sources suggest that demand has improved as consumer has returned to FCOJ due to the Coronavirus. The demand remains strong enough to keep prices in a trading range and well above the lows seen only a few months ago. Grocery stores in many areas sold out and need to restock, but this has been getting done. Consumers have returned to Juice and that is good news for moderate prices. There appear to be good supplies around and another crop is coming. The early and mid crop harvest is about over and the Valencia harvest is increasing. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Reports indicate that new crop fruit is progressing well.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting on Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 104.00, 102.00, and 100.00 May, with resistance at 111.00, 115.00, and 117.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 15
Note from Florida Department of Citrus:
Please be advised that the release of the Weekly Florida Processors
Statistics Report will be delayed throughout the remainder of the season
pending receipt of verified data from all reporting facilities. In an effort
to actively reduce the spread of COVID-19, many processing facility staff are
working remotely or working reduced hours.
We will release reports as soon as they become available.
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
3/21/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/21/2020 3/23/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 302.48 262.39 15.3%
Retail/Institutional 7.05 5.88 19.9%
Total 309.53 268.28 15.4%
Pack
Bulk 5.06 5.14 -1.5%
Retail/Institutional 1.01 1.04 -2.8%
Total Pack 6.07 6.17 -1.7%
Reprocessed -2.88 -3.15 -8.7%
Pack from Fruit 3.19 3.02 5.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.23 -0.05 350.8%
Imports – Foreign 5.37 8.72 -38.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.18 0.31 -40.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.70 0.11 544.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 310.69 273.46 13.6%
Retail/Institutional 8.06 6.92 16.5%
Total 318.75 280.38 13.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.46 4.81 13.4%
Exports 0.16 0.12 34.4%
Total (Bulk) 5.62 4.93 13.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.46 1.20 21.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.46 1.20 21.8%
Total Movement 7.08 6.13 15.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 305.07 268.53 13.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.60 5.73 15.3%
Ending Inventory 311.67 274.25 13.6%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
21-Mar-20 23-Mar-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 87.98 79.86 10.2%
Retail/Institutional 30.80 29.49 4.4%
Total Pack 118.78 109.35 8.6%
Reprocessed -61.18 -58.98 3.7%
Pack from Fruit 57.60 50.37 14.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.73 -0.92 88.4%
Imports – Foreign 63.75 136.39 -53.3%
Domestic Receipts 8.45 2.20 285.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.18 0.04 419.9%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 13.97 2.47 466.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.07 0.85 25.2%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 424.43 399.12 6.3%
Retail/Institutional 36.62 35.41 3.4%
Total 461.06 434.52 6.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 112.64 119.39 -5.7%
Domestic 6.72 11.20 -40.0%
Exports 119.36 130.59 -8.6%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 30.02 29.68 1.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 30.02 29.68 1.1%
Total Movement 149.39 160.27 -6.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 305.07 268.53 13.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.60 5.73 15.3%
Ending Inventory 311.67 274.25 13.6%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets, with New York leading the way. The commercials are playing the long side and the market is not going down. The chart trends are mixed in New York and still mostly down in London due to big production ideas, but producers are having trouble getting workers to pick and the exporters are having trouble getting workers for processing and loading. Brazil is currently reporting good conditions with a few showers. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Industry is still using certified stocks instead of trying to import from around the world.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.866 million bags. GCA stocks are 6.023 million bags, from 6.312 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 113.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 112.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 127.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1120, 1100, and 1070 May, and resistance is at 1210, 1220, and 1230 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were mixed. Concerns that ethanol production will not start to increase anytime soon is still a drag on futures prices. OPEC and Russia along with Mexico and Canada had agreed to cut production by about 10 million barrels per day. Coronavirus has cut demand by 20 million barrels per day so the production cuts will help but there needs to be a way to end the lockdown in various countries so people can start driving again. It has been dry in Sao Paulo to affect developing cane in the state. The recently weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm yesterday but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the price action suggests that they are succeeding. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1030, 1000, and 970 October, and resistance is at 1110, 1130, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 327.00, 320.00, and 317.00 August, and resistance is at 346.00, 349.00, and 353.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on weaker demand ideas. Analysts interview by Bloomberg News estimated the grind in Europe and North America moderately lower and the grind in Asia much lower.. Chart trends are still turning down in both markets as the Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.057 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2170, 2160, and 2150 May, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2320 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1700, 1660, and 1520 May. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 May, with resistance at 1840, 1850, and 1900 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322