Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was narrowly mixed amid signs of halting demand even as mills and fabrics makers returned to work. China is open again and much of Southeast Asia is as well. However, consumers have been reluctant to rush out and buy new things and remain wary of another Coronavirus outbreak. Much of the selling was related to lost demand potential due to the Coronavirus. The Coronavirus has closed malls across America and stores are not selling clothes. Clothes for the US market made in Asia are not being ordered and there will be a lot of clothes for retail to move in the near future. In the meantime, Cotton is being produced and Africa especially is seeing backed up demand and has a lot more than normal to sell. Price in New York got very cheap and are now returning to those levels after a short rally last week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get scattered showers off and on this week in southern areas. Temperatures should be mostly below normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have a few showers or dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 47.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 22,816 bales, from 22,816 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5220, 5110, and 4840 May, with resistance of 5450, 5490 and 5670 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday on demand considerations here in the US and in Europe. Industry sources suggest that demand has improved as consumers returned to FCOJ due to the Coronavirus. The demand remains strong enough to keep prices in a trading range and well above the lows seen only a few months ago. Grocery stores in many areas sold out and need to restock, but this has been getting done. Consumers have returned to Juice and that is good news for moderate prices. There appear to be good supplies around and another crop is coming. The early and mid crop harvest is about over and the Valencia harvest is increasing. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Reports indicate that new crop fruit is progressing well.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting on Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 104.00, 102.00, and 100.00 May, with resistance at 111.00, 115.00, and 117.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were slightly higher in New York with London closed. It was another lifeless day, but the commercials are playing the long side and the market is not going down. The chart trends are mixed in New York and in London due to big production ideas, but producers are having trouble getting workers to pick and the exporters are having trouble getting workers for processing and loading. Brazil is currently reporting good conditions with a few showers. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Industry is still using certified stocks instead of trying to import from around the world.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.946 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 112.17 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and so light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 112.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 127.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1160, and 1150 May, and resistance is at 1210, 1220, and 1230 May.
General Comments: New York and London were lower on concerns that ethanol production will not start to increase anytime soon. OPEC and Russia along with Mexico and Canada had agreed to cut production by about 10 million barrels per day. Coronavirus has cut demand by 20 million barrels per day so the production cuts will help but there needs to be a way to end the lockdown in various countries so people can start driving again. The next harvest is about to start in Brazil. The recently weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm yesterday but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the price action suggests that they are succeeding. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1030, 1000, and 970 October, and resistance is at 1110, 1130, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 328.00, 320.00, and 317.00 August, and resistance is at 346.00, 349.00, and 353.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. Chart trends are still turning down in both markets as the Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.061 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2250, 2170, and 2160 May, with resistance at 2320, 2380, and 2430 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1780, 1700, and 1660 May. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1740 May, with resistance at 1840, 1850, and 1900 May.