About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Apr 15
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED APRIL 15, 2020 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING MARCH 2020
————————————————————————
Mar-20 Feb-20 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,796
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 3,493 9,782
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 100 499
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 8 799 200 2,597 R
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SWW 3 299 0 299
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 100 100
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 12 1,197 699 1,896
CORN WHITE 231 23,052 4,891 31,037
CORN YELLOW 6,318 630,478 581,883 1,657,528 R
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 100
OATS 1 100 100 900
SORGHUM 0 0 11,277 38,520
SOYBEANS 2,222 221,734 230,017 R 691,145
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 282 28,142 34,328 66,662
WHEAT HRW 1,613 160,964 181,423 R 504,750
WHEAT SRW 25 2,495 14,970 24,849
WHEAT SWW 111 11,076 10,678 21,754
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower with KC Wheat leading the way down on forecasts for improved moisture in parts of southern Russia. Traders are watching the Russian situation near the Black Sea and it remains dry but this could change in the next 10 days to two weeks as rains are expected by then. It was cold in the Great Plains over the weekend, but ideas are that it was not cold enough to damage Wheat. It is still cold this week but temperatures should moderate over te weekend. There was confirmation of restricted exports from Russia as Wheat prices have moved sharply higher as have flour prices in local markets. For now the restrictions imposed do not seem to be onerous, but there are restrictions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 539, and 534 May, with resistance at 564, 575, and 584 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 505 and 529 May. Support is at 491, 485, and 481 May, with resistance at 497, 502, and 506 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 522, 520, and 515 May, and resistance is at 537, 542, and 545 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly higher in moderate volume trading. Futures had trade lower early in the session but rallied into the close, with only May able to close lower. The domestic situation remains tight despite the recent price action and down side for old crop futures could be somewhat limited. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures but this has dried up as Arkansas has been cool and wet for planting. Planting was active last week in the state but has been shut down again. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is going into the ground at a solid pace and is emerging well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions Temperatures should be generally below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1407, 1395, and 1380 May, with resistance at 1468, 1474, and 1578 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 15
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.99 10.73 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.66 11.44 0.00
Brokens 10.78 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher. Corn futures could not escape the bearish demand news and the weakness in most other markets yesterday. Smithfields announced it had closed its Souix Falls, SD plant for an indefinite period, joining other processors who have closed plants in other states recently. The Coronavirus has affected worker safety and many have caught the disease. Smithfields will wait for clearance from state, local, and federal officials before reopening. The trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that hurt domestic ethanol production and the effects of the Coronavirus remain part of the market. The trade war might be resolved now with all producer countries agreeing to cut production by about 10 million barrels per day. The demand loss has been 20 million barrels per day so the lost production will only partly solve the problem. Ethanol demand will not improve in the short-term because people are not driving much due to the Coronavirus. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times. Ethanol stocks are increasing even with the reduced processing due to the lack of driving in the US. That means a lot less Corn demand.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 317, 313, and 303 May. Support is at 326, 323, and 320 May, and resistance is at 335, 339, and 342 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 282, 288, and 298 May. Support is at 270, 268, and 264 March, and resistance is at 283, 286, and 290 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower in sympathy with Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal. Trends are turning down in all three markets again. Soybean Meal has given back all of its rally that started when DDG production dropped in the US and the lack of demand is why. Smithfields announced it is closing its Souix Falls, SD plant for an extended period and no one knows when it will reopen. Too many workers have contracted the Coronavirus. That closing along with other plants in the US from other processors hurts feed demand a lot. The lack of demand for biofuels is hurting the Soybean Oil. Producer countries are working on an agreement to cut Crude Oil production by 10% but the demand has dropped even more so the agreement will only partially solve the problem.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 830, 827, and 816 May. Support is at 836, 832, and 831 May, and resistance is at 870, 876, and 892 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 May, and resistance is at 294.00, 297.00, and 300.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2650 and 2550 May. Support is at 2620, 2570, and 2520 May, with resistance at 2780, 2830, and 2850 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on Chicago and Malaysia price action. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Palm Oil was a little higher. Production is dropping. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus but buyers are not buying as import have been locked down in many cases. Demand has remained a big problem.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 460.00, 466.00, and 470.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2220, 2170, and 2160 July, with resistance at 2300, 2330, and 2420 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers early and late this week. Temperatures should average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+51 May
+145 May
+55 May
+61 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+49 May
+55 May
+59 May

June
+50 July
+55 July
+59 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 14
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for April 14, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 429.80 -30.00 May 2020 dn 3.80
Track Thunder Bay 467.20 10.00 May 2020 dn 2.60
Track Vancouver 479.20 22.00 May 2020 dn 2.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 577.50 02.50 Unquoted – –
May 572.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 560.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 545.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 542.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 580.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 575.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 562.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 547.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 545.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 607.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 560.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,360.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 173.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3350)
Corections & Amplifications
This chart was corrected at 06:28 a.m. The June Olein was misstated as $562.00 instead of $562.50.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 488,307 lots, or 23.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,944 5,217 4,907 5,190 4,893 5,100 207 113,917 55,371
Jul-20 4,800 4,959 4,800 4,934 4,756 4,898 142 230 438
Sep-20 4,552 4,730 4,533 4,718 4,522 4,666 144 363,955 131,309
Nov-20 4,189 4,282 4,161 4,220 4,150 4,196 46 63 368
Jan-21 4,047 4,124 4,047 4,095 4,051 4,093 42 10,141 26,137
Mar-21 4,121 4,121 4,121 4,121 4,088 4,121 33 1 32
Corn
Turnover: 592,129 lots, or 12.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,998 2,031 1,997 2,027 1,995 2,016 21 68,348 186,701
Jul-20 2,026 2,053 2,026 2,053 2,026 2,040 14 11,131 54,019
Sep-20 2,051 2,072 2,051 2,070 2,049 2,063 14 472,699 863,922
Nov-20 2,066 2,081 2,066 2,081 2,064 2,073 9 3,063 7,472
Jan-21 2,076 2,091 2,076 2,088 2,076 2,085 9 32,495 98,589
Mar-21 2,092 2,102 2,090 2,098 2,090 2,098 8 4,393 1,545
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,077,823 lots, or 30.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,755 2,778 2,751 2,765 2,755 2,762 7 124,141 198,520
Jul-20 2,748 2,757 2,732 2,743 2,742 2,746 4 39,281 94,148
Aug-20 2,790 2,804 2,780 2,795 2,781 2,795 14 13,055 9,418
Sep-20 2,808 2,820 2,796 2,811 2,797 2,809 12 848,175 1,831,111
Nov-20 2,831 2,845 2,824 2,837 2,824 2,835 11 8,193 7,485
Dec-20 – – – 2,845 2,845 2,845 0 0 313
Jan-21 2,833 2,845 2,823 2,835 2,824 2,833 9 44,916 220,620
Mar-21 2,808 2,809 2,795 2,804 2,794 2,803 9 62 543
Palm Oil
Turnover: 667,637 lots, or 31.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 0
May-20 4,834 4,898 4,828 4,894 4,852 4,870 18 75,649 53,953
Jun-20 5,004 5,004 5,004 5,004 5,008 5,004 -4 1 9
Jul-20 – – – 4,918 4,920 4,918 -2 0 13
Aug-20 – – – 4,846 4,818 4,846 28 0 9
Sep-20 4,666 4,724 4,658 4,702 4,670 4,698 28 585,068 318,914
Oct-20 4,794 4,794 4,688 4,728 4,734 4,738 4 34 13
Nov-20 4,706 4,706 4,706 4,706 4,758 4,706 -52 2 7
Dec-20 4,810 4,906 4,794 4,794 4,784 4,846 62 5 157
Jan-21 4,702 4,784 4,702 4,768 4,750 4,756 6 6,876 30,434
Feb-21 4,862 4,862 4,862 4,862 4,858 4,862 4 2 12
Mar-21 – – – 4,958 4,958 4,958 0 0 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 403,272 lots, or 22.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,560 5,666 5,532 5,616 5,596 5,604 8 54,313 61,549
Jul-20 5,562 5,616 5,562 5,616 5,574 5,590 16 9 5
Aug-20 5,532 5,564 5,482 5,564 5,586 5,524 -62 5 4
Sep-20 5,480 5,546 5,456 5,524 5,514 5,514 0 333,039 456,875
Nov-20 5,588 5,668 5,516 5,578 5,596 5,572 -24 33 430
Dec-20 – – – 5,636 5,636 5,636 0 0 18
Jan-21 5,554 5,624 5,538 5,606 5,604 5,594 -10 15,870 48,737
Mar-21 5,476 5,650 5,476 5,650 5,640 5,578 -62 3 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322