About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. April Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2018-2019
Corn 1,990 1,790-2,150 1,892 2,221
Soybeans 444 400-504 425 909
Wheat 945 910-999 940 1080
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,905 440 940
Allendale 2,067 440 950
Doane 1,885 485 951
EDFMan Capital 2,042 455 965
Hueber Report 1,790 420 940
INTL FCStone 2,018 456 930
Kapco Futures 1,930 420 935
North Star 1,900 430 940
Sid Love Consulting 1,967 450 940
Midland Research 2,017 425 960
RJ O’Brien 2,082 448 963
RMC 1,925 420 925
US Commodities 2,092 475 945
Vantage RM 2,150 400 920
Western Milling 2,092 504 999
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,980 440 910

DJ April World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World 2019-20 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2018-19
Corn 298.5 293.0-301.0 297.3 320.8
Soybeans 101.9 98.5-104.9 102.4 111.9
Wheat 287.0 283.9-291.0 287.1 277.6
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 298.0 103.0 285.0
Allendale 300.0 102.1 287.2
Doane 299.0 100.0 289.0
EDFMan Capital 301.0 103.0 288.0
Hueber Report 293.0 100.0 288.0
INTL FCStone 300.4 104.9 285.9
Kapco Futures 299.0 104.8 291.0
Northstar 296.0 98.5 287.0
RMC 296.5 102.0 285.0
US Commodities 299.8 101.7 286.5
Western Milling 300.0 99.0 288.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 299.6 103.4 283.9

DJ April Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2018-19
Corn 100.3 99.0-101.1 101.0 101.0
Soybeans 124.2 123.0-126.0 126.0 117.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 100.0 126.0
Allendale 100.0 125.0
Doane 99.0 124.0
EDF Man Capital 101.0 125.0
Hueber Report 99.0 123.0
INTL FCStone 101.1 123.0
Midland Research 101.0 125.0
North Star 101.0 123.5
RMC 101.0 124.0
US Commodities 101.0 124.0
Western Milling 99.0 123.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 100.5 125.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2018-19
Corn 49.7 49.0-51.7 50.0 51.0
Soybeans 52.7 51.0-54.0 54.0 55.3
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 50.0 53.0
Allendale 49.5 53.0
Doane 50.0 53.0
EDF Man Capital 50.0 53.0
Hueber Report 49.5 52.0
INTL FCStone 51.7 52.8
Midland Research 49.0 53.0
North Star 49.0 52.0
RMC 50.0 54.0
US Commodities 49.0 52.0
Western Milling 49.0 51.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 50.0 54.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed in consolidation trading. Chicago SRW closed mostly a little lower but HRW and Spring closed higher. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and bases levels have moved sharply higher. However, basis levels started to fall again last week. In addition, there was confirmation of restricted exports from Russia as Wheat prices have moved sharply higher as have flour prices in local markets. For now the restrictions imposed do not seem to be onerous, but there are restrictions. It remains dry in most growing areas near the Black Sea. The dry weather needs to be watched. There are forecasts for some showers in the 11 to 15 Day outlooks for the region.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 539, and 534 May, with resistance at 564, 575, and 583 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 468, 461, and 448 May, with resistance at 483, 485, and 492 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 522, 520, and 515 May, and resistance is at 532, 542, and 545 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed after moving much lower again in the first few minutes of the trade. It appears that a fund decided to take some profits from long positions but did not know just how thin the market was. The selling ran out and futures were able to recover. The domestic situation remains tight. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice. The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is going into the ground at a solid pace. Arkansas is still too wet and cold and has yet to start.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers today. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1407, 1395, and 1380 May, with resistance at 1468, 1474, and 1578 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower in lifeless trading before the release of the USDA reports today. Saudi Arabia and Russia are still talking about production cuts to help support world petroleum prices. Ethanol demand will not improve in the short-term because people are not driving much due to the Coronavirus. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times. Ethanol stocks are increasing even with the reduced processing due to the lack of driving in the US. That means a lot less Corn demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 323, 319, and 313 May. Support is at 328, 326, and 323 May, and resistance is at 335, 339, and 342 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 270, 268, and 264 March, and resistance is at 279, 283, and 286 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were little changed and mixed in lifeless trading before the USDA reports today. Soybean Meal has now given back its entire rally that started with the Saudi Russian trade war. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role, but port loadings have been very strong in Brazil and the trucking problems are working themselves out in Argentina. Also, the Real and the Peso remain weaker against the US Dollar. China is still buying in South America and not here.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 849, 838, and 832 May, and resistance is at 871, 876, and 892 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 300.00, and 305.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2850 and 3010 May. Support is at 2690, 2620, and 2570 May, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2930 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was higher. Production is dropping. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus but buyers are not buying as import have been locked down in many cases.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 459.00, 457.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 466.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2280, and 2220 June, with resistance at 2400, 2460, and 2490 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers early and late this week. Temperatures should average above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+53 May
+145 May
+55 May
+58 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+51 May
+55 May
+58 May

June
+50 July
+55 July
+56 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 6
WINNIPEG, April 6 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 431.40 -32.00 May 2020 dn 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.60 10.00 May 2020 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver 484.60 22.00 May 2020 dn 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 587.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 562.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 590.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 565.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 552.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 615.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 575.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,440.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 178.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3330)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 214,501 lots, or 9.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,855 4,880 4,820 4,845 4,790 4,850 60 64,615 65,846
Jul-20 4,653 4,729 4,653 4,728 4,630 4,701 71 134 400
Sep-20 4,519 4,573 4,516 4,533 4,501 4,546 45 147,729 101,088
Nov-20 4,172 4,177 4,150 4,170 4,140 4,167 27 10 347
Jan-21 4,041 4,091 4,041 4,063 4,041 4,073 32 2,012 21,914
Mar-21 4,099 4,099 4,099 4,099 4,070 4,099 29 1 32
Corn
Turnover: 348,286 lots, or 7.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,988 1,994 1,984 1,987 1,982 1,988 6 39,487 214,718
Jul-20 2,018 2,027 2,018 2,022 2,014 2,021 7 12,186 53,955
Sep-20 2,047 2,051 2,041 2,043 2,038 2,045 7 279,106 816,187
Nov-20 2,053 2,064 2,053 2,057 2,053 2,059 6 1,346 7,136
Jan-21 2,080 2,081 2,072 2,073 2,070 2,076 6 15,359 75,811
Mar-21 2,086 2,094 2,086 2,087 2,086 2,088 2 802 1,110
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,231,335 lots, or 34.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,785 2,805 2,780 2,798 2,788 2,792 4 154,389 358,724
Jul-20 2,760 2,773 2,752 2,764 2,757 2,760 3 53,504 96,971
Aug-20 2,798 2,819 2,790 2,809 2,798 2,803 5 24,493 8,413
Sep-20 2,825 2,839 2,810 2,822 2,812 2,821 9 937,610 1,780,326
Nov-20 2,835 2,858 2,832 2,841 2,835 2,842 7 10,194 7,023
Dec-20 2,847 2,859 2,846 2,859 2,852 2,850 -2 12 311
Jan-21 2,845 2,865 2,833 2,841 2,837 2,844 7 51,038 186,844
Mar-21 2,821 2,821 2,808 2,813 2,809 2,815 6 95 522
Palm Oil
Turnover: 899,724 lots, or 44.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 0
May-20 5,000 5,122 5,000 5,086 4,982 5,086 104 173,185 95,998
Jun-20 5,104 5,198 5,104 5,196 5,130 5,162 32 5 10
Jul-20 – – – 4,966 4,936 4,966 30 0 9
Aug-20 – – – 4,862 4,832 4,862 30 0 4
Sep-20 4,852 4,920 4,846 4,894 4,824 4,892 68 717,408 255,604
Oct-20 5,034 5,034 4,950 4,978 4,910 4,986 76 9 13
Nov-20 – – – 4,874 4,800 4,874 74 0 6
Dec-20 4,994 4,994 4,994 4,994 4,824 4,994 170 1 155
Jan-21 4,860 4,968 4,860 4,930 4,890 4,938 48 9,115 24,420
Feb-21 – – – 4,840 4,840 4,840 0 0 4
Mar-21 5,066 5,066 5,066 5,066 4,990 5,066 76 1 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 698,606 lots, or 39.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,532 5,696 5,524 5,676 5,508 5,632 124 154,621 104,997
Jul-20 5,684 5,746 5,662 5,746 5,576 5,690 114 10 17
Aug-20 5,716 5,720 5,642 5,720 5,522 5,692 170 3 3
Sep-20 5,584 5,696 5,584 5,672 5,584 5,644 60 525,697 449,471
Nov-20 5,700 5,774 5,660 5,768 5,660 5,738 78 32 408
Dec-20 5,790 5,790 5,744 5,768 5,680 5,778 98 21 19
Jan-21 5,678 5,770 5,678 5,746 5,686 5,722 36 18,217 39,291
Mar-21 5,770 5,796 5,720 5,756 5,722 5,756 34 5 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322