About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: 2020 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2019
Corn 94.253 92.5-96.4 89.700
Soybeans 84.699 82.7-87.0 76.100
All Wheat 44.859 42.3-46.0 45.158
Winter Wheat 30.847 30.1-31.7 31.159
Spring Wheat 12.615 12.0-13.4 12.660
Durum Wheat 1.505 1.1-2.4 1.339
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 93.5 85.5 45.8 30.1 13.4 2.2
Allendale 94.6 83.7 44.5 30.9 12.4 1.1
DC Analysis 94.0 85.0 44.8 30.8 12.2 1.8
Doane 94.2 83.8 45.6 30.8 12.5 2.4
EDFMan Capital 96.0 83.0 44.4 30.8 12.5 1.1
Farm Futures 96.4 82.7 45.8 31.7
Grain Cycles 93.0 84.5 44.7 31.0 12.4 1.3
Hueber Report 93.0 85.0 46.0 31.1 12.5 1.4
INTL FCStone 93.7 84.6 44.4 30.2 12.7 1.5
Sid Love Consulting 94.0 85.5 45.3 30.8 13.0 1.5
Midland Research 93.4 85.0 42.3 30.8 12.9 1.8
Northstar 94.0 84.0 44.5 30.8 12.8 1.4
Prime-Ag 94.5 85.5 45.0
RMC 95.0 84.0 46.0
RJ O’Brien 94.5 86.0 45.0 31.0 12.6 1.4
US Commodities 96.0 85.5 44.5
Vantage RM 94.5 84.0 44.5 30.7 12.5 1.3
Western Milling 94.0 85.0 44.0 30.8 12.0 1.2
Zaner Ag Hedge 92.5 87.0 45.4 31.3 12.8 1.3

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2020 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range Mar. 2019 Dec. 2019
Corn 8,162 7,892-8,492 8,613 11,389
Soybeans 2,237 2,075-2,701 2,727 3,252
Wheat 1,437 1,385-1,572 1,593 1,834
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 8,202 2,091 1,428
Allendale 8,240 2,214 1,423
DC Analysis 7,945 2,178 1,423
Doane 8,085 2,180 1,385
EDFMan Capital 8,300 2,500 1,540
Grain Cycles 7,985 2,185 1,405
INTL FCStone 7,892 2,209 1,399
Sid Love Consulting 8,146 2,203 1,424
Midland Research 8,115 2,170 1,430
Northstar 8,247 2,210 1,430
Prime-Ag 8,100 2,075 1,475
RJ O’Brien 8,034 2,168 1,408
US Commodities 8,317 1,425
Vantage RM 8,492 2,701 1,572
Western Milling 8,124 2,195 1,399
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,364 2,282 1,427

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little higher, but some nearby months were lower. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and bases levels have moved sharply higher. In addition, there was a lot of talk of restricted exports from Russia as Wheat prices have moved sharply higher as have flour prices in local markets. For now the restrictions imposed do not seem to be onerous, but the situation bears watching. Restrictions are also being placed on Ukraine Wheat exports. It remains dry in most growing areas near the Black Sea. The dry weather pattern continues in these areas and must still be watched although it is too early for any kind of market reaction.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 562, 547, and 539 May, with resistance at 583, 587, and 591 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 479, 476, and 466 May, with resistance at 494, 497, and 506 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 527, 519, and 516 May, and resistance is at 542, 545, and 550 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher. Mills and speculators were buyers. The domestic situation remains tight. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1399, 1380, and 1365 May, with resistance at 1425, 1436, and 1448 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia hurt domestic ethanol production and the effects of the Coronavirus became part of the market. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times. That means a lot less Corn demand. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The loss in ethanol demand inside the US is very large.
Overnight News: Japan bought 113,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 338, 333, and 330 May, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 357 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 270, 274, and 279 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mostly a little higher on logistical problems in South America. Soybean Meal closed mostly a little higher. Soybean Oil closed a little higher. Both the Soybeans and Soybean Meal markets were supported in part by the lack of ethanol production here in the US. Little or no ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally. Argentina and Brazil are having trouble getting trucks from farms to crusher and exporters. The problems are especially in Argentina, where several towns have moved to block traffic in defiance of federal orders. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 871, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 892, 897, and 904 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 315.00 and 303.00 May. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 318.00 May, and resistance is at 329.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2620, 2570, and 2530 May, with resistance at 2740, 2760, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was lower on ideas of slow demand. Production is also dropping. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 467.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2600 and 2810 June. Support is at 2400, 2300, and 2270 June, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2550 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+56 May
+150 May
+67 May
+62 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+55 May
+67 May
+56 May

May
+55 May
+72 May
+58 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 430.90 -32.00 May 2020 up 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 477.50 10.00 May 2020 up 4.60
Basis: Vancouver 492.50 25.00 May 2020 up 4.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 605.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May 600.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 592.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 570.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 570.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 607.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May 602.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 595.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 572.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 572.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 615.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 585.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,520.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 183.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.311)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 472,724 lots, or 22.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,919 4,947 4,827 4,866 4,839 4,873 34 354,702 100,492
Jul-20 4,715 4,729 4,638 4,694 4,662 4,673 11 96 180
Sep-20 4,516 4,597 4,437 4,566 4,481 4,522 41 112,919 59,942
Nov-20 4,110 4,171 4,096 4,171 4,160 4,129 -31 27 322
Jan-21 4,127 4,137 4,051 4,098 4,139 4,096 -43 4,977 15,817
Mar-21 4,143 4,144 4,140 4,140 4,182 4,142 -40 3 25
Corn
Turnover: 423,025 lots, or 8.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,988 1,994 1,981 1,990 1,991 1,987 -4 57,756 263,492
Jul-20 2,022 2,025 2,013 2,022 2,022 2,018 -4 21,871 64,626
Sep-20 2,047 2,051 2,038 2,048 2,049 2,044 -5 332,390 777,752
Nov-20 2,063 2,067 2,056 2,065 2,068 2,061 -7 2,496 8,798
Jan-21 2,082 2,089 2,077 2,085 2,086 2,083 -3 6,809 51,624
Mar-21 2,097 2,102 2,091 2,098 2,102 2,095 -7 1,703 1,530
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,725,867 lots, or 50.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,985 2,985 2,946 2,957 3,003 2,961 -42 323,736 600,653
Jul-20 2,950 2,953 2,914 2,925 2,976 2,927 -49 54,246 86,391
Aug-20 2,942 2,954 2,913 2,940 2,969 2,931 -38 42,620 7,691
Sep-20 2,950 2,956 2,920 2,940 2,976 2,936 -40 1,239,161 1,726,368
Nov-20 2,952 2,953 2,919 2,943 2,974 2,935 -39 11,891 6,239
Dec-20 2,938 2,966 2,933 2,951 2,979 2,948 -31 37 300
Jan-21 2,929 2,938 2,903 2,928 2,957 2,919 -38 54,112 152,563
Mar-21 2,879 2,903 2,870 2,897 2,919 2,885 -34 64 383
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,171,415 lots, or 57.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 0
May-20 5,010 5,044 4,880 4,892 4,950 4,956 6 780,755 160,185
Jun-20 5,142 5,142 4,986 4,986 4,998 5,086 88 28 37
Jul-20 4,866 4,994 4,812 4,812 5,014 4,916 -98 13 278
Aug-20 4,930 4,960 4,930 4,960 4,886 4,950 64 3 4
Sep-20 4,906 4,930 4,756 4,762 4,854 4,832 -22 384,654 208,821
Oct-20 – – – 4,724 4,744 4,724 -20 0 7
Nov-20 – – – 4,886 4,908 4,886 -22 0 6
Dec-20 – – – 4,912 4,934 4,912 -22 0 157
Jan-21 4,926 4,974 4,824 4,834 4,924 4,910 -14 5,962 19,729
Feb-21 – – – 4,906 4,906 4,906 0 0 3
Mar-21 – – – 4,974 4,974 4,974 0 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 544,439 lots, or 30.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,490 5,532 5,386 5,390 5,490 5,460 -30 126,853 163,837
Jul-20 5,524 5,524 5,450 5,454 5,530 5,476 -54 3 267
Aug-20 – – – 5,450 5,450 5,450 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,568 5,606 5,456 5,468 5,574 5,534 -40 412,702 419,707
Nov-20 5,654 5,680 5,532 5,532 5,662 5,626 -36 34 704
Dec-20 5,692 5,694 5,642 5,682 5,646 5,676 30 4 13
Jan-21 5,708 5,708 5,562 5,578 5,674 5,630 -44 4,843 31,169
Mar-21 – – – 5,670 5,670 5,670 0 0 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322