About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was lower Gain last week and made new lows for the move on the weekly continuation charts. Much of the selling was related to lost demand potential due to the Coronavirus and the extremely weak petroleum prices. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. China has also been slow to buy products from Southeast Asia and demand for US Cotton has been hurt in the entire region. The weakness in Petroleum futures comes from the moves by Saudi Arabia to ramp up production just at the time when the world economy is slowing down. The threat of a world-wide recession is very real.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 48.15 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 28,446 bales, from 28,446 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5070, 5020, and 4960 May, with resistance of 5490, 5630 and 5800 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 24, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 262,858
: Positions :
: 16,392 38,642 68,508 89,043 124,748 77,668 19,274 251,610 251,172: 11,248 11,686
: Changes from: March 17, 2020 (Change in open interest: -4,182) :
: -2,648 -1,396 3,301 3,809 -3,612 -8,626 -1,932 -4,163 -3,639: -19 -544
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.2 14.7 26.1 33.9 47.5 29.5 7.3 95.7 95.6: 4.3 4.4
: Total Traders: 289 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 94 88 63 62 43 26 227 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week on demand considerations here in the US. Industry sources suggest that demand has improved as consumers are returning to FCOJ due to the Coronavirus. Grocery stores in many areas have sold out and need to restock. The increased demand has really turned the market around. The early and mid crop harvest is about over and the Valencia harvest is increasing. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Reports indicate that new crop fruit is progressing well.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 113.00 May, with resistance at 122.00, 124.00, and 127.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 24, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 18,014 :
: Positions :
: 9,248 9,256 735 7 28 1,509 4,775 175 1,490 651 2,293 :
: Changes from: March 17, 2020 :
: -356 2,235 -83 7 24 94 -2,605 -52 -711 -161 517 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.3 51.4 4.1 0.0 0.2 8.4 26.5 1.0 8.3 3.6 12.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72 :
: 21 14 4 . . 8 14 . 17 4 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London but the logistics of shipping Coffee from anywhere in Latin America remain difficult at best. Containers are bottled up in China and are increasingly hard to find for shipping in most Coffee exporter countries. The chart trends are down in New York and mixed in London due to big production ideas. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this week. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.007 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 109.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 116.00 and 108.00 May. Support is at 116.00, 110.00, and 107.00 May, and resistance is at 124.00, 131.00 and 135.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1190, 1150, and 1130 May, and resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1290 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 24, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 334,638
: Positions :
: 20,469 18,527 104,946 136,236 187,720 63,998 17,000 325,649 328,192: 8,989 6,446
: Changes from: March 17, 2020 (Change in open interest: -1,068) :
: -111 -5,875 -2,000 4,568 10,603 -1,946 -2,371 510 357: -1,577 -1,425
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.1 5.5 31.4 40.7 56.1 19.1 5.1 97.3 98.1: 2.7 1.9
: Total Traders: 359 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 60 127 114 116 44 25 320 282:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed a little higher for the week. Sugar futures were supported by the lack of container availability in Brazil for shipping. The recently weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market but are having trouble getting containers for shipping. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of good weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1110, 1070, and 1050 May, and resistance is at 1170, 1210, and 1220 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 332.00, and 329.00 May, and resistance is at 361.00, 364.00, and 369.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 24, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,255,442
: Positions :
: 78,818 88,715 254,158 547,987 772,477 300,303 73,646 1,181,266 1,188,995: 74,177 66,448
: Changes from: March 17, 2020 (Change in open interest: -17,072) :
: -6,328 -1,950 -11,028 19,450 -5,159 -15,554 -670 -13,459 -18,807: -3,613 1,735
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 7.1 20.2 43.6 61.5 23.9 5.9 94.1 94.7: 5.9 5.3
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 50 80 83 76 41 23 227 195:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed, with London lower and New York a little higher. It was a day for currency trading in this market. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.955 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 May, with resistance at 2310, 2360, and 2400 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1740 May, with resistance at 1840, 1890, and 1930 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 24, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 299,509
: Positions :
: 26,340 32,807 86,252 124,306 151,353 50,780 21,109 287,677 291,520: 11,832 7,990
: Changes from: March 17, 2020 (Change in open interest: -21,311) :
: -12,721 -1,559 -3,255 8,935 -5,730 -7,597 -3,948 -14,638 -14,493: -6,673 -6,818
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 11.0 28.8 41.5 50.5 17.0 7.0 96.0 97.3: 4.0 2.7
: Total Traders: 213 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 45 81 46 44 34 16 191 153:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322