About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: 2020 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2019
Corn 94.253 92.5-96.4 89.700
Soybeans 84.699 82.7-87.0 76.100
All Wheat 44.859 42.3-46.0 45.158
Winter Wheat 30.847 30.1-31.7 31.159
Spring Wheat 12.615 12.0-13.4 12.660
Durum Wheat 1.505 1.1-2.4 1.339
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 93.5 85.5 45.8 30.1 13.4 2.2
Allendale 94.6 83.7 44.5 30.9 12.4 1.1
DC Analysis 94.0 85.0 44.8 30.8 12.2 1.8
Doane 94.2 83.8 45.6 30.8 12.5 2.4
EDFMan Capital 96.0 83.0 44.4 30.8 12.5 1.1
Farm Futures 96.4 82.7 45.8 31.7
Grain Cycles 93.0 84.5 44.7 31.0 12.4 1.3
Hueber Report 93.0 85.0 46.0 31.1 12.5 1.4
INTL FCStone 93.7 84.6 44.4 30.2 12.7 1.5
Sid Love Consulting 94.0 85.5 45.3 30.8 13.0 1.5
Midland Research 93.4 85.0 42.3 30.8 12.9 1.8
Northstar 94.0 84.0 44.5 30.8 12.8 1.4
Prime-Ag 94.5 85.5 45.0
RMC 95.0 84.0 46.0
RJ O’Brien 94.5 86.0 45.0 31.0 12.6 1.4
US Commodities 96.0 85.5 44.5
Vantage RM 94.5 84.0 44.5 30.7 12.5 1.3
Western Milling 94.0 85.0 44.0 30.8 12.0 1.2
Zaner Ag Hedge 92.5 87.0 45.4 31.3 12.8 1.3

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2020 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range Mar. 2019 Dec. 2019
Corn 8,162 7,892-8,492 8,613 11,389
Soybeans 2,237 2,075-2,701 2,727 3,252
Wheat 1,437 1,385-1,572 1,593 1,834
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 8,202 2,091 1,428
Allendale 8,240 2,214 1,423
DC Analysis 7,945 2,178 1,423
Doane 8,085 2,180 1,385
EDFMan Capital 8,300 2,500 1,540
Grain Cycles 7,985 2,185 1,405
INTL FCStone 7,892 2,209 1,399
Sid Love Consulting 8,146 2,203 1,424
Midland Research 8,115 2,170 1,430
Northstar 8,247 2,210 1,430
Prime-Ag 8,100 2,075 1,475
RJ O’Brien 8,034 2,168 1,408
US Commodities 8,317 1,425
Vantage RM 8,492 2,701 1,572
Western Milling 8,124 2,195 1,399
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,364 2,282 1,427

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and basic levels have moved sharply higher. There was a lot of bullish demand news for the market to absorb. There is also the chance for production losses in areas near the Black Sea from freezing temperatures on ground with no snow cover. It remains dry in parts of Russia. No one is talking about losses in Russia yet, but the situation should be monitored as losses will become very possible unless it starts to rain soon. There has been talk of export restriction for Russian Wheat but these appeared to fade yesterday.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see light precipitation in southern areas the rest of the week and a dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 562, 547, and 539 May, with resistance at 583, 591, and 598 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 479, 476, and 466 May, with resistance at 493, 497, and 506 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 527, 519, and 516 May, and resistance is at 545, 550, and 558 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on strong domestic demand and improving export demand ideas. Vietnam said it was suspending exports and India might have to do the same thing due to the Coronavirus. India is traditionally the low-priced seller into the world market so their potential withdrawal could mean a big rally is coming. The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been generally good. There are supplies of Rice left in Arkansas but next to nothing is left in Texas and Louisiana. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1406 May. Support is at 1349, 1339, and 1316 May, with resistance at 1390, 1398, and 1425 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on US Dollar weakness. The US stock market was sharply higher. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels right now. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The Saudi moves have helped to destroy the Corn market here in the US. It has turned into a disastrous situation and one for which the US government has no real answers to give Corn producers here.
Overnight News: USDA said that Unknown Destinations bought 113,048 tons of US Corn’
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 345, 338, and 332 May, and resistance is at 353, 357, and 364 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 265, 274, and 279 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybean Meal closed higher. Little or no ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally. Argentina and Brazil closed borders to traffic last week. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult. The US is still selling and shipping normally and has gained the upper hand for any loads China or anyone else might need to buy. Chinese Soybean Meal users have indicated that the market is very short the product right now and that prices are increasing. The move comes even with the US Dollar index at extremely high levels against major world currencies and against the Real and Peso. The US is still the best and most reliable shipper and is expected to capture a lot of business going forward.
Overnight News: USDA said that Mexico bought 63,290 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 916 and 937 May. Support is at 871, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 888, 897, and 904 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 3125.00 and 303.00 May. Support is at 320.00, 317.00, and 314.00 May, and resistance is at 327.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2620, 2570, and 2530 May, with resistance at 2700, 2760, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was higher on ideas of slow production. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 467.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2600 and 2810 June. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2190 June, with resistance at 2430, 2480, and 2520 June.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Mar 26
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended March 22, 2020. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 3185.7 674.8 373.9 383.4 46.8 1333.4 384.6 95.1 7013.7
Week Ago 3146.7 711.2 378.1 397.3 45.2 1489.1 382.6 94.5 7254.9
Year Ago 3122.1 1001.9 269.9 326.6 61.3 1222.2 388.6 445.5 7583.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 496.1 142.8 55.7 62.5 3.5 406.8 69.5 8.3 1292.4
Week Ago 408.3 109.9 61.1 63.8 6.7 415.7 82.3 8.1 1229.8
To Date 13500.2 3146.8 1946.5 2664.6 199.7 12994.8 2713.1 250.5 39902.7
Year Ago 14043.3 2731.6 1498.9 2493.9 236.4 11901.1 2271.5 362.6 38331.5
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 349.4 71.5 0.1 5.5 0.0 238.1 29.6 1.5 760.2
Week Ago 323.1 76.6 8.9 22.6 0.0 241.6 21.0 1.2 747.2
To Date 11119.7 3566.2 339.3 1372.4 72.4 6781.8 1606.3 130.8 28985.1
Year Ago 12830.5 2448.1 301.1 1512.1 72.9 6426.7 1225.3 862.4 30984.8
EXPORTS
This Week 317.4 184.9 41.6 17.9 0.6 335.4 19.7 0.0 1029.3
Week Ago 296.0 109.0 22.9 44.9 0.8 226.3 13.2 0.0 731.0
To Date 9693.9 3145.1 1103.5 1443.3 102.2 6114.0 1611.1 12.5 26360.3
Year Ago 11389.5 2207.6 1011.7 1636.8 148.0 6033.8 1277.2 936.2 28487.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 58.9 4.3 13.9 34.3 0.4 217.1 2.7 8.5 361.8
Week Ago 56.5 2.8 28.4 33.9 0.7 186.9 3.6 10.6 339.9
To Date 2567.1 234.4 454.3 1041.9 30.2 6650.9 147.8 400.7 12613.7
Year Ago 2570.3 214.9 184.2 705.1 36.0 5794.3 134.6 753.8 12062.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+56 May
+160 May
+70 May
+61 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+55 May
+70 May
+58 May

May
+55 May
+75 May
+60 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 26
WINNIPEG, March 26 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 433.60 -32.00 May 2020 dn 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.80 10.00 May 2020 dn 2.80
Basis: Vancouver 487.80 25.00 May 2020 dn 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 605.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
May 602.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 595.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 570.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 570.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 607.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
May 605.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 597.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 572.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 572.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 615.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 580.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,460.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 182.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3420)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 707,651 lots, or 32.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,625 4,788 4,625 4,696 4,576 4,704 128 580,672 104,479
Jul-20 4,548 4,610 4,444 4,500 4,393 4,561 168 175 143
Sep-20 4,335 4,468 4,332 4,389 4,335 4,391 56 122,649 47,662
Nov-20 4,090 4,182 4,090 4,127 4,137 4,128 -9 97 319
Jan-21 4,102 4,147 4,095 4,104 4,135 4,116 -19 4,056 12,489
Mar-21 4,170 4,170 4,166 4,166 4,173 4,168 -5 2 23
Corn
Turnover: 462,373 lots, or 9.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,961 1,975 1,961 1,974 1,965 1,970 5 76,818 293,748
Jul-20 1,993 2,006 1,992 2,005 1,996 2,001 5 15,768 62,498
Sep-20 2,021 2,035 2,020 2,034 2,023 2,029 6 357,158 724,060
Nov-20 2,038 2,052 2,038 2,051 2,042 2,047 5 1,297 6,578
Jan-21 2,052 2,070 2,052 2,069 2,062 2,066 4 9,516 45,805
Mar-21 2,071 2,084 2,071 2,083 2,075 2,080 5 1,816 1,196
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,230,706 lots, or 65.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,910 2,959 2,910 2,947 2,909 2,936 27 443,247 603,929
Jul-20 2,905 2,947 2,900 2,923 2,906 2,923 17 70,396 85,630
Aug-20 2,902 2,946 2,902 2,908 2,915 2,923 8 78,150 3,954
Sep-20 2,916 2,947 2,910 2,928 2,916 2,927 11 1,548,461 1,619,639
Nov-20 2,899 2,944 2,899 2,930 2,914 2,927 13 24,542 7,138
Dec-20 2,941 2,956 2,930 2,936 2,923 2,939 16 54 303
Jan-21 2,895 2,930 2,891 2,919 2,901 2,912 11 65,779 132,636
Mar-21 2,854 2,901 2,854 2,883 2,871 2,885 14 77 411
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,366,423 lots, or 65.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 4,740 4,850 4,456 4,844 4,740 4,598 -142 318 0
May-20 4,766 4,888 4,762 4,846 4,822 4,828 6 955,787 178,636
Jun-20 4,878 4,936 4,838 4,916 4,868 4,906 38 56 28
Jul-20 4,836 4,966 4,836 4,926 4,928 4,908 -20 6 308
Aug-20 4,810 4,812 4,760 4,812 4,898 4,784 -114 10 3
Sep-20 4,742 4,824 4,724 4,780 4,804 4,776 -28 405,617 204,239
Oct-20 4,710 4,808 4,710 4,808 4,798 4,744 -54 4 7
Nov-20 – – – 4,830 4,830 4,830 0 0 6
Dec-20 – – – 4,916 4,916 4,916 0 0 157
Jan-21 4,814 4,906 4,814 4,860 4,878 4,858 -20 4,624 19,945
Feb-21 – – – 4,842 4,842 4,842 0 0 3
Mar-21 4,974 4,974 4,974 4,974 4,954 4,974 20 1 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 685,236 lots, or 37.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,476 5,490 5,406 5,422 5,512 5,440 -72 219,589 175,227
Jul-20 – – – 5,598 5,598 5,598 0 0 317
Aug-20 – – – 5,516 5,588 5,516 -72 0 2
Sep-20 5,538 5,566 5,488 5,510 5,578 5,520 -58 461,105 384,684
Nov-20 5,584 5,584 5,584 5,584 5,654 5,584 -70 1 684
Dec-20 5,640 5,656 5,530 5,612 5,696 5,584 -112 20 21
Jan-21 5,614 5,658 5,592 5,624 5,672 5,626 -46 4,521 26,101
Mar-21 – – – 5,670 5,670 5,670 0 0 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322