Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was higher again yesterday. A stronger US and world stock market and a weaker US Dollar were the best reasons to buy. Much of the selling was related to lost demand potential due to the Coronavirus and the still weak petroleum prices. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and the rest of the world. The weakness in Petroleum futures comes from the moves by Saudi Arabia to ramp up production just at the time when the world economy is slowing down. The threat of a world-wide recession is very real. It also means that man-made fibers are that much cheaper than natural fibers. The strong US Dollar hurts trade anywhere and pushes buying to alternative growths like Brazil.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers starting on Saturday. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will trend to near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 48.26 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 28,446 bales, from 28,446 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 277,100 bales this year and 120,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 18,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 5070, 5020, and 4960 May, with resistance of 5490, 5630 and 5800 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was sharply higher on demand considerations here in the US and in South America. Industry sources suggest that demand has improved as consumers are returning to FCOJ due to the Coronavirus. The increased demand has really turned the market around. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 113.00 May, with resistance at 133.00, 124.00, and 127.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and a little higher in London. Containers are bottled up in China and are increasingly hard to find for shipping in most Coffee exporter countries. The chart trends are up in New York and mixed in London due to big production ideas. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this week. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.027 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 117.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers in Minas Gerais this week and spreading into Sao Paulo this weekend with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 136.00 May. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 120.00 May, and resistance is at 131.00, 135.00 and 137.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1220, 1190, and 1150 May, and resistance is at 1270, 1290, and 1310 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. Sugar futures were supported by the lack of container availability in Brazil for shipping. The recently weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of good weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers mostly in Minas Gerais this week and spreading into Sao Pauloi this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1180 and 1250 May. Support is at 1110, 1070, and 1050 May, and resistance is at 1170, 1210, and 1220 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 332.00, 329.00, and 326.00 May, and resistance is at 349.00, 352.00, and 354.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.964 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 May, with resistance at 2310, 2360, and 2400 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1800, and 1790 May, with resistance at 1890, 1930, and 1980 May.