About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 26
For the week ended Mar 19 in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 740.0 366.4 24710.0 23618.9 5208.3 965.8
hrw 370.3 296.9 9250.2 8369.7 1928.3 440.2
srw -4.0 45.0 2333.7 3084.9 289.5 162.4
hrs 167.9 4.5 7272.6 6520.9 1640.4 176.2
white 121.8 0.0 4940.8 5162.4 1119.7 36.0
durum 84.0 20.0 912.6 481.1 230.4 151.0
corn 1814.3 82.9 30832.0 42658.1 13783.9 1740.7
soybeans 904.3 0.5 35904.0 41604.8 4612.9 414.9
soy meal 251.2 16.0 8661.7 9130.2 3051.2 116.8
soy oil 55.9 0.0 832.0 548.0 278.9 2.5
upland cotto 277.1 120.1 15144.9 12565.5 6918.4 1895.1
pima cotton 18.3 0.0 539.9 615.1 235.1 35.3
sorghum 107.6 0.0 2472.6 947.2 1286.6 33.0
barley 0.0 0.0 49.1 59.4 11.3 31.0
rice 73.0 0.0 2889.0 2691.3 793.6 0.0

DJ Coronavirus Containment Measures Disrupting Global Grain Trade, IGC Says
By Will Horner and Joe Wallace
Measures to halt the spread of coronavirus are disrupting the movement of grains and other vital food-stuffs, just as demand for rice and wheat-based products was surging, the International Grains Council said Thursday.
The group also raised its forecast for global grain production, but noted that its estimates were tentative until the full effect of the pandemic was known.
In its monthly report, the IGC upped its forecast for grain production in the 2019-20 season by 3 million metric tons to 2.175 billion tons. That was higher than the 2.139 billion tons produced in 2018-19.
The intergovernmental body also cuts its forecast for grain demand by 1 million tons to 2.192 billion tons. This compares with demand of 2.163 billion tons in 2018-19.
“Although import buying of some commodities has accelerated in recent weeks, logistical challenges are being reported as movement constraints and quarantine measures become widespread,” the IGC said.
The IGC also issued its first set of projections for supply and demand in the 2020-2021 season in which it predicts a grain output of 2.223 billion tons and consumption of 2.226 billion tons, meaning a fourth consecutive year that the global grain market would be in deficit.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday with fund buying in Chicago RW markets the main feature. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and bases levels have moved sharply higher. There was a lot of bullish demand news for the market to absorb. There is also the chance for production losses in areas near the Black Sea from freezing temperatures on ground with no snow cover. It remains dry in parts of Russia. No one is talking about losses in Russia yet, but the situation should be monitored as losses will become very possible unless it starts to rain soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see light precipitation in southern areas the rest of the week and a dry weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 568, 562, and 547 May, with resistance at 591, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 491, 479, and 476 May, with resistance at 512, 518, and 5024 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 548 and 563 May. Support is at 535, 528, and 519 May, and resistance is at 545, 550, and 558 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on strong domestic demand and improving export demand ideas. Vietnam said it was suspending exports and India might have to do the same thing due to the Coronavirus. India is traditionally the low-priced seller into the world market so their potential withdrawal could mean a big rally is coming. The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been generally good although not so strong in recent weeks. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. It has been weaker lately due to the higher prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1373 and 1406 May. Support is at 1339, 1316, and 1306 May, with resistance at 1368, 1380, and 1398 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on US Dollar weakness and somewhat higher Crude Oil prices. The US stock market was sharply higher. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels right now. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The Saudi moves have helped to destroy the Corn market here in the US. It has turned into a disastrous situation and one for which the US government has no real answers to give Corn producers here.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 345, 338, and 332 May, and resistance is at 353, 357, and 364 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 274, 278, and 282 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Oil closed higher. Soybean Meal closed lower. Little or no ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally. Argentina and Brazil closed borders to traffic last week. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult. For example, one port town in Argentina has closed itself off to all port traffic including trucks bringing Soybeans and products to the port. The US is still selling and shipping normally and has gained the upper hand for any loads China or anyone else might need to buy. Chinese Soybean Meal users have indicated that the market is very short the product right now and that prices are increasing. The move comes even with the US Dollar index at extremely high levels against major world currencies and against the Real and Peso. The US is still the best and most reliable shipper and is expected to capture a lot of business going forward.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 916 and 937 May. Support is at 872, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 897, 900, and 904 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 3125.00 and 202.00 May. Support is at 314.00, 311.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 327.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2570, 2530, and 2470 May, with resistance at 2700, 2760, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was lower on speculative profit taking and on currency considerations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 433.00 May. Support is at 453.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 470.00, 473.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2600 and 2810 June. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2190 June, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2530 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+56 May
+160 May
+70 May
+60 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+55 May
+65 May
+58 May

May
+55 May
+70 May
+60 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 25
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 435.50 -32.00 May 2020 unchanged
Basis: Thunder Bay 475.60 10.00 May 2020 dn 1.90
Basis: Vancouver 490.60 25.00 May 2020 dn 1.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 592.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
May 590.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 577.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 595.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
May 592.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 580.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 570.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,440.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 180.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3300)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 450,710 lots, or 20.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,491 4,625 4,476 4,621 4,448 4,576 128 363,683 118,993
Jul-20 4,355 4,420 4,355 4,400 4,341 4,393 52 66 103
Sep-20 4,290 4,400 4,252 4,329 4,275 4,335 60 82,314 45,992
Nov-20 4,107 4,183 4,104 4,111 4,131 4,137 6 61 313
Jan-21 4,115 4,164 4,090 4,092 4,124 4,135 11 4,577 10,831
Mar-21 4,227 4,227 4,107 4,169 4,189 4,173 -16 9 21
Corn
Turnover: 503,598 lots, or 10.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,967 1,974 1,959 1,959 1,961 1,965 4 85,353 295,390
Jul-20 1,981 2,005 1,981 1,990 1,992 1,996 4 27,754 60,971
Sep-20 2,024 2,033 2,018 2,018 2,020 2,023 3 376,209 659,097
Nov-20 2,045 2,051 2,036 2,037 2,041 2,042 1 2,999 6,274
Jan-21 2,069 2,070 2,055 2,055 2,060 2,062 2 9,552 41,848
Mar-21 2,077 2,082 2,068 2,068 2,076 2,075 -1 1,731 938
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,043,597 lots, or 59.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,924 2,932 2,882 2,895 2,954 2,909 -45 423,092 589,319
Jul-20 2,917 2,930 2,869 2,879 2,958 2,906 -52 45,376 82,732
Aug-20 2,950 2,950 2,872 2,872 2,963 2,915 -48 43,897 5,987
Sep-20 2,930 2,938 2,881 2,892 2,956 2,916 -40 1,430,103 1,610,546
Nov-20 2,941 2,941 2,876 2,885 2,953 2,914 -39 22,149 5,887
Dec-20 2,924 2,943 2,906 2,906 2,942 2,923 -19 253 325
Jan-21 2,900 2,917 2,868 2,876 2,919 2,901 -18 78,594 127,410
Mar-21 2,852 2,880 2,852 2,854 2,895 2,871 -24 133 404
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,343,777 lots, or 64.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,740 4,740 4,740 0 0 0
May-20 4,880 4,898 4,716 4,736 4,816 4,822 6 976,398 188,859
Jun-20 4,892 4,920 4,802 4,816 4,868 4,868 0 34 14
Jul-20 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,928 4,936 4,928 -8 2 309
Aug-20 4,898 4,898 4,898 4,898 5,044 4,898 -146 1 3
Sep-20 4,860 4,878 4,704 4,716 4,812 4,804 -8 363,003 201,631
Oct-20 4,902 4,902 4,736 4,736 4,822 4,798 -24 10 8
Nov-20 – – – 4,830 4,830 4,830 0 0 6
Dec-20 4,960 4,960 4,874 4,874 4,878 4,916 38 2 157
Jan-21 4,900 4,942 4,806 4,814 4,846 4,878 32 4,327 19,355
Feb-21 – – – 4,842 4,842 4,842 0 0 3
Mar-21 – – – 4,954 4,954 4,954 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 707,310 lots, or 39.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,564 5,576 5,424 5,452 5,536 5,512 -24 252,908 186,060
Jul-20 – – – 5,598 5,598 5,598 0 0 317
Aug-20 – – – 5,588 5,612 5,588 -24 0 2
Sep-20 5,640 5,646 5,492 5,516 5,608 5,578 -30 448,658 368,647
Nov-20 5,674 5,680 5,628 5,638 5,676 5,654 -22 21 685
Dec-20 5,704 5,704 5,680 5,680 5,716 5,696 -20 4 22
Jan-21 5,716 5,722 5,594 5,614 5,696 5,672 -24 5,719 25,403
Mar-21 – – – 5,670 5,692 5,670 -22 0 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322