About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

 

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday but Chicago SRW closed mixed. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and bases levels have moved sharply higher. There was a lot of bullish demand news for the market to absorb. Trends turned up in US Wheat markets last week and it is possible that the buying could continue the rest of this week. No one really knows just how long the Coronavirus related buying will go on and just how short the domestic mills are. Prices will correct lower once the mill buying is done but should hold above recent contract lows as the dynamics of the market have changed. The domestic buying is one part of the puzzle and it remains dry in parts of Russia. No one is talking about losses in Russia yet, but the situation should be monitored as losses will become very possible unless it starts to rain soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains through Friday. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions today and light precipitation the rest of the week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 547, 539, and 534 May, with resistance at 563, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 502 May. Support is at 476, 466, and 456 May, with resistance at 493, 497, and 503 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 548 and 563 May. Support is at 528, 519, and 516 May, and resistance is at 538, 540, and 545 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in consolidation trading. The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been generally good although not so strong in recent weeks. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. It has been weaker lately due to the higher prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1300 and 1237 May. Support is at 1316, 1306, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1349, 1358, and 1368 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 25
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.51 9.79 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.19 10.43 0.00
Brokens 9.84 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on US Dollar weakness and somewhat higher Crude Oil prices. The US stock market was sharply higher.. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels right now. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The Saudi moves have helped to destroy the Corn market here in the US. It has turned into a disastrous situation and one for which the US government has no real answers to give Corn producers here. The US will need to find a way to convince both sides in the dispute to back off and allow the US market to attempt to return, but so far no one is willing to listen.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 138,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 345, 338, and 332 May, and resistance is at 357, 364, and 366 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 272, 278, and 282 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher. Soybean Meal closed a little lower. Little or no ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally. Argentina and Brazil closed borders to traffic last week. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult. For example, one port town in Argentina has closed itself off to all port traffic including trucks bringing Soybeans and products to the port. The US is still selling and shipping normally and has gained the upper hand for any loads China or anyone else might need to buy. Chinese Soybean Meal users have indicated that the market is very short the product right now and that prices are increasing. The move comes even with the US Dollar index at extremely high levels against major world currencies and against the Real and Peso. The US is still the best and most reliable shipper and is expected to capture a lot of business going forward.
Overnight News: USDA said that South Korea bought 20,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 916 and 937 May. Support is at 872, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 889, 900, and 904 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 326.00, 322.00, and 314.00 May, and resistance is at 336.00, 337.00, and 340.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2590 and 2660 May. Support is at 2570, 2530, and 2470 May, with resistance at 26700, 2760, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was near unchanged in quiet and choppy trading. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying and hopes on increasing consumer demand. Asian stock markets were higher. Some workers are testing positive for the Coronavirus in Malaysian plantations.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 866,270 tons, down 11.7% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 433.00 May. Support is at 453.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 469.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2270, 2190, and 2160 June, with resistance at 2400, 2470, and 2480 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+50 May
+160 May
+70 May
+57 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+50 May
+65 May
+59 May

May
+51 May
+70 May
+54 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 24
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 435.50 -32.00 May 2020 up 5.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 477.50 10.00 May 2020 unchanged
Basis: Vancouver 492.50 25.00 May 2020 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 592.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May 587.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 577.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 565.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 565.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 595.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May 590.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 580.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 567.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 567.50 +15.00 Unquoted –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 602.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 570.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,470.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 182.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.380)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 259,141 lots, or 11.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,414 4,507 4,387 4,501 4,342 4,448 106 222,319 106,846
Jul-20 4,339 4,353 4,326 4,353 4,273 4,341 68 20 101
Sep-20 4,247 4,302 4,225 4,298 4,220 4,275 55 34,936 39,790
Nov-20 4,117 4,142 4,117 4,138 4,076 4,131 55 17 312
Jan-21 4,091 4,135 4,091 4,122 4,091 4,124 33 1,823 8,023
Mar-21 4,043 4,209 4,043 4,166 4,097 4,189 92 26 21
Corn
Turnover: 568,453 lots, or 11.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,955 1,969 1,954 1,967 1,953 1,961 8 77,284 299,851
Jul-20 1,986 2,002 1,986 1,998 1,983 1,992 9 20,866 59,661
Sep-20 2,014 2,029 2,012 2,026 2,011 2,020 9 456,548 659,469
Nov-20 2,036 2,048 2,035 2,046 2,033 2,041 8 2,634 6,271
Jan-21 2,055 2,067 2,053 2,063 2,052 2,060 8 9,147 39,920
Mar-21 2,069 2,083 2,069 2,078 2,068 2,076 8 1,974 1,027
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,092,927 lots, or 61.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,936 2,983 2,915 2,968 2,934 2,954 20 512,334 615,489
Jul-20 2,925 2,977 2,919 2,961 2,922 2,958 36 56,492 82,094
Aug-20 2,923 2,983 2,914 2,969 2,921 2,963 42 58,458 4,782
Sep-20 2,925 2,982 2,915 2,965 2,916 2,956 40 1,380,721 1,579,995
Nov-20 2,921 2,976 2,908 2,970 2,909 2,953 44 13,986 3,863
Dec-20 2,926 2,965 2,926 2,959 2,904 2,942 38 85 441
Jan-21 2,885 2,939 2,879 2,930 2,875 2,919 44 70,524 126,850
Mar-21 2,900 2,911 2,877 2,900 2,863 2,895 32 327 358
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,423,826 lots, or 68.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 4,690 4,766 4,690 4,766 4,732 4,740 8 3 0
May-20 4,790 4,918 4,746 4,912 4,702 4,816 114 1,035,513 207,212
Jun-20 4,858 4,928 4,814 4,928 4,790 4,868 78 11 16
Jul-20 4,886 4,968 4,886 4,948 4,696 4,936 240 4 309
Aug-20 – – – 5,044 4,800 5,044 244 0 3
Sep-20 4,752 4,908 4,740 4,902 4,674 4,812 138 382,352 202,335
Oct-20 4,866 4,866 4,798 4,806 4,704 4,822 118 3 8
Nov-20 – – – 4,830 4,712 4,830 118 0 6
Dec-20 4,844 4,908 4,844 4,882 4,810 4,878 68 7 159
Jan-21 4,800 4,970 4,800 4,968 4,766 4,846 80 5,933 18,020
Feb-21 – – – 4,842 4,764 4,842 78 0 3
Mar-21 – – – 4,954 4,874 4,954 80 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 625,416 lots, or 34.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,502 5,606 5,494 5,602 5,484 5,536 52 281,022 203,605
Jul-20 5,640 5,640 5,560 5,628 5,568 5,598 30 13 317
Aug-20 5,632 5,632 5,590 5,590 5,570 5,612 42 3 2
Sep-20 5,584 5,678 5,566 5,670 5,560 5,608 48 337,866 362,998
Nov-20 5,668 5,706 5,648 5,704 5,624 5,676 52 11 687
Dec-20 5,718 5,718 5,716 5,716 5,672 5,716 44 3 20
Jan-21 5,670 5,758 5,658 5,750 5,650 5,696 46 6,498 24,540
Mar-21 – – – 5,692 5,648 5,692 44 0 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322