About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and bases levels have moved sharply higher. USDA on Friday announced that China had also been active in the US Wheat market and had bought its first loads of HRW since 2017. There was a lot of bullish demand news for the market to absorb. Trends turned up in US Wheat markets last week and it is possible that the buying could continue the rest of this week. No one really knows just how long the Coronavirus related buying will go on and just how short the domestic mills are. Prices will correct lower once the mill buying is done but should hold above recent contract lows as the dynamics of the market have changed. The domestic buying is one part of the puzzle and it remains dry in parts of Russia. No one is talking about losses in Russia yet, but the situation should be monitored as losses will become very possible unless it starts to rain soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains through Friday. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions today and light precipitation the rest of the week. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 547, 539, and 534 May, with resistance at 568, 575, and 579 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 502 May. Support is at 476, 466, and 456 May, with resistance at 493, 497, and 503 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 548 and 563 May. Support is at 528, 519, and 516 May, and resistance is at 534, 538, and 540 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on some follow through selling, probably from speculators. The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been generally good although not so strong in recent weeks. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. It has been weaker lately due to the higher prices. The US domestic market is now quiet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1300 and 1237 May. Support is at 1316, 1306, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1358, 1368, and 1390 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the crude oil trade war started and led by the Saudi Arabian government hurt domestic ethanol production. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels right now. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The Saudi moves have helped to destroy the Corn market here in the US. The loss in ethanol demand inside the US is so large that even a major purchase of US Corn by China did little to create any lasting buying interest. It has turned into a disastrous situation and one for which the US government has no real answers to give Corn producers here. The US will need to find a way to convince both sides in the dispute to back off and allow the US market to attempt to return, but so far no one is willing to listen.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 338, 332, and 330 May, and resistance is at 357, 364, and 366 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 237 May. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 272, 278, and 282 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher. Soybean Meal moved sharply higher. Little or now ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally. Argentina and Brazil closed borders to traffic last week. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult. For example, one port town in Argentina has closed itself off to all port traffic including trucks bringing Soybeans and products to the port. The US is still selling and shipping normally and has gained the upper hand for any loads China or anyone else might need to buy. Chinese Soybean Meal users have indicated that the market is very short the product right now and that prices are increasing. The move comes even with the US Dollar index at extremely high levels against major world currencies and against the Real and Peso. The US is still the best and most reliable shipper and is expected to capture a lot of business going forward.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 916 and 937 May. Support is at 872, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 885, 889, and 900 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 335.00 May. Support is at 326.00, 322.00, and 314.00 May, and resistance is at 335.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2530, 2470, and 2440 May, with resistance at 2630, 2700, and 2760 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on the strength in Chicago. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying and hopes that the worst of the Coronavirus news was part of the market. Asian stock markets were higher. Some workers are testing positive for the Coronavirus in Malaysian plantations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 433.00 May. Support is at 453.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 469.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 June, with resistance at 2370, 2400, and 2430 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+50 May
+160 May
+70 May
+57 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+50 May
+65 May
+59 May

May
+51 May
+70 May
+54 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 23
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 429.90 -32.00 May 2020 up 4.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 477.50 10.00 May 2020 up 4.60
Basis: Vancouver 492.50 25.00 May 2020 up 4.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 582.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
May 580.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 570.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 550.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 550.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 585.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
May 582.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 572.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 552.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 552.50 +05.00 Unquoted –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 590.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 570.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,440.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 180.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.428)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 208,528 lots, or 9.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,344 4,406 4,300 4,404 4,326 4,342 16 176,732 103,901
Jul-20 4,255 4,307 4,250 4,295 4,248 4,273 25 21 102
Sep-20 4,242 4,260 4,202 4,245 4,217 4,220 3 30,485 36,595
Nov-20 4,071 4,105 4,064 4,105 4,084 4,076 -8 36 310
Jan-21 4,109 4,110 4,080 4,093 4,097 4,091 -6 1,254 6,765
Mar-21 – – – 4,097 4,103 4,097 -6 0 1
Corn
Turnover: 401,791 lots, or 8.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,959 1,959 1,950 1,954 1,955 1,953 -2 67,322 292,450
Jul-20 1,988 1,990 1,980 1,985 1,987 1,983 -4 22,700 58,314
Sep-20 2,017 2,018 2,005 2,013 2,014 2,011 -3 301,978 584,361
Nov-20 2,033 2,037 2,029 2,036 2,036 2,033 -3 3,110 6,361
Jan-21 2,059 2,060 2,047 2,055 2,056 2,052 -4 4,970 35,024
Mar-21 2,073 2,073 2,063 2,070 2,072 2,068 -4 1,711 927
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,462,222 lots, or 71.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,980 2,989 2,896 2,918 2,928 2,934 6 658,336 602,268
Jul-20 2,942 2,949 2,904 2,920 2,895 2,922 27 79,883 78,989
Aug-20 2,932 2,964 2,905 2,926 2,900 2,921 21 46,182 2,156
Sep-20 2,935 2,940 2,892 2,920 2,900 2,916 16 1,577,682 1,498,492
Nov-20 2,940 2,940 2,888 2,915 2,899 2,909 10 12,726 2,524
Dec-20 2,912 2,928 2,883 2,908 2,903 2,904 1 183 461
Jan-21 2,900 2,903 2,851 2,884 2,865 2,875 10 87,127 119,179
Mar-21 2,865 2,885 2,841 2,876 2,850 2,863 13 103 438
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,301,331 lots, or 61.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,732 4,732 4,732 0 0 2
May-20 4,656 4,778 4,636 4,776 4,586 4,702 116 1,008,862 200,034
Jun-20 4,660 4,830 4,660 4,790 4,670 4,790 120 21 19
Jul-20 – – – 4,696 4,580 4,696 116 0 309
Aug-20 – – – 4,800 4,680 4,800 120 0 3
Sep-20 4,646 4,730 4,632 4,728 4,606 4,674 68 288,822 181,408
Oct-20 – – – 4,704 4,636 4,704 68 0 9
Nov-20 – – – 4,712 4,644 4,712 68 0 6
Dec-20 4,810 4,810 4,810 4,810 4,722 4,810 88 1 160
Jan-21 4,728 4,798 4,728 4,798 4,696 4,766 70 3,623 15,771
Feb-21 – – – 4,764 4,696 4,764 68 0 3
Mar-21 4,874 4,874 4,874 4,874 4,696 4,874 178 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 594,841 lots, or 32.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,490 5,528 5,444 5,488 5,404 5,484 80 306,391 210,444
Jul-20 5,568 5,568 5,568 5,568 5,462 5,568 106 1 317
Aug-20 – – – 5,570 5,570 5,570 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,570 5,600 5,526 5,566 5,492 5,560 68 284,988 345,692
Nov-20 – – – 5,624 5,556 5,624 68 0 691
Dec-20 5,658 5,698 5,658 5,672 5,652 5,672 20 7 20
Jan-21 5,622 5,682 5,622 5,668 5,588 5,650 62 3,453 25,585
Mar-21 5,648 5,648 5,648 5,648 5,598 5,648 50 1 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322