About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was sharply lower last week and made new lows for the move on the weekly continuation charts. Much of the selling was related to lost demand potential due to the Coronavirus and the extremely weak petroleum prices. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. China has also been slow to buy products from Southeast Asia and demand for US Cotton has been hurt in the entire region. The weakness in Petroleum futures comes from the moves by Saudi Arabia to ramp up production just at the time when the world economy is slowing down. The threat of a world-wide recession is very real. The strong US Dollar hurts trade anywhere and pushes buying to alternative growths like Brazil.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers starting on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to below normal this weekend. Texas will have scattered showers on Sunday. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 48.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 41,404 bales, from 41,404 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 5320, 5260, and 5200 May, with resistance of 5800, 5860 and 5940 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 17, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 267,040
: Positions :
: 19,039 40,039 65,207 85,234 128,359 86,294 21,206 255,773 254,810: 11,267 12,230
: Changes from: March 10, 2020 (Change in open interest: 9,916) :
: -3,645 5,258 1,177 16,736 2,443 -3,636 897 10,631 9,774: -714 142
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.1 15.0 24.4 31.9 48.1 32.3 7.9 95.8 95.4: 4.2 4.6
: Total Traders: 284 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 94 86 58 63 45 29 217 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week on logistical considerations here in the US and in South America. Traders are wondering if workers are around to man the plants here in Florida and in Brazil. In addition, there are not enough tankers or containers around for shipping the product to buyers. Pickers are not going out into groves to pick the fruit for fear of getting too close to affected fellow workers and catching the Coronavirus disease. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 106.00 and 111.00 May. Support is at 104.00, 102.00, and 100.00 May, with resistance at 106.00, 108.00, and 109.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 17, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 18,546 :
: Positions :
: 9,604 7,021 818 0 4 1,415 7,380 227 2,201 812 1,776 :
: Changes from: March 10, 2020 :
: -101 859 -205 0 0 224 -1,326 0 -557 -120 -153 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.8 37.9 4.4 0.0 0.0 7.6 39.8 1.2 11.9 4.4 9.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 82 :
: 20 12 5 0 . 7 19 . 20 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and slightly higher in London. It was a wild week of trading in New York as the market wrestled with various factors. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. Many producers and exporters have run out of Coffee in storage to sell. In addition, containers are bottled up in China and are increasingly hard to find for shipping in most Coffee exporter countries. The chart trends are up in New York and mixed in London due to big production ideas. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year. Growing conditions are uneven again this year as it is dry in many growing areas. The Real lost once again to the US Dollar Index and remains very cheap.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.057 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 111.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers in all areas today and tomorrow and in Minas Gerais starting on Sunday with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 125.00 and 136.00 May. Support is at 114.00, 110.00, and 107.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 125.00 and 127.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1220, 1190, and 1150 May, and resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1290 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 17, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 335,706
: Positions :
: 20,581 24,401 106,946 131,668 177,116 65,944 19,371 325,139 327,835: 10,567 7,871
: Changes from: March 10, 2020 (Change in open interest: -15,732) :
: -4,819 -2,454 -6,638 1,420 -6,235 -4,596 -173 -14,632 -15,500: -1,100 -232
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.1 7.3 319 39.2 52.8 19.6 5.8 96.9 97.7: 3.1 2.3
: Total Traders: 371 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 74 123 111 110 45 25 318 285:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower again last week on the back of weaker petroleum futures. The weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of good weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic for more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1080, 1030, and 1000 May, and resistance is at 1120, 1170, and 1210 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 341.00, 332.00, and 329.00 May, and resistance is at 352.00, 35f4.00, and 364.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 17, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,272,515
: Positions :
: 85,146 90,665 265,186 528,537 777,636 315,856 74,315 1,194,725 1,207,802: 77,790 64,713
: Changes from: March 10, 2020 (Change in open interest: -43,774) :
: -53,060 -20,889 -16,022 45,289 -29,152 -13,095 17,752 -36,888 -48,311: -6,886 4,537
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.7 7.1 20.8 41.5 61.1 24.8 5.8 93.9 94.9: 6.1 5.1
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 45 78 85 79 43 24 229 193:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments:
New York closed lower for the week and trends remain down on the weekly charts. London closed higher and trends are mixed. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa, but showers are possible in coastal areas. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.927 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 May, with resistance at 2270, 2360, and 2400 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1660 May. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1740 May, with resistance at 1840, 1890, and 1930 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 17, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 320,821
: Positions :
: 39,060 34,365 89,507 115,371 157,083 58,377 25,057 302,316 306,012: 18,505 14,808
: Changes from: March 10, 2020 (Change in open interest: -26,954) :
: -22,474 -5,721 -15,320 20,604 -9,050 -14,588 -1,387 -31,778 -31,479: 4,824 4,525
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 10.7 27.9 36.0 49.0 18.2 7.8 94.2 95.4: 5.8 4.6
: Total Traders: 215 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 49 80 42 42 35 21 190 157:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322