William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
During these tumultuous times, it’s imperative to look for the good news – as we all know! Well this week, we didn’t have to look too far – for instance, the above meal chart speaks volumes – making new 6-month highs despite a meltdown in the DJI, crude oil & the metals – plus a sharp rise in the US Dollar! Sometimes enough is enough – like cheap meal
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Thur Sales were 701,000 (400-1,000) & Mon Inspections were 436,358 (579,102)
Fri 8am sales – 756,000 Corn – China
340,000 Wheat – China
110,000 Beans – Unk
- MACROS – if there were ever a happening qualifying as a Black Swan Event, it would be CORONAVIRUS! So Far, its impact is being compared to 911 & the Great Recession of 2008 but it may well eclipse those two – we can only hope not! And coupled with this was the oil price war between Russia & Saudi Arabia – so a real bearish one-two punch that the May Meal was able to overcome
- FED INTERVENTION – the govt has taken monetary measures to combat Covid-19 – including a lowering of interest rates & mass infusions of capital – and Draconian measures including STAY-HOME edicts for California, Illinois & New York – but what the mkt really wants is a reduction in the number of Covid-19 infections
- LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES – grains were plenty cheap before coronavirus reared its ugly head – and it looks like a bearish price exhaustion was achieved with the onset of Covid-19 – the solid exports this week are evidence that grains prices dropped to levels very competitive on the world mkt meal’s meteoric rise this week in the face of so many negatives is a classic case of BULLISH DIVERGENCE – plus it’s always good to have meal as your upside leader – we feel this mkt action bodes very well for the entire grain complex!
Despite solid exports this past week – Mon Inspections – 977,879 & Thur Sales 960,000, May Corn remains the “weak link” losing 22 cents for the week! The major culprit is the potential massive demand hit if the US ethanol demand collapses! In addition, the surge of the US Dollar, the collapse of the Brazil Real to all-time lows & fears of a massive US crop weighed on the mkt! On the plus side, the mkt was already cheap before the onset of Covid-19 – so its now extremely oversold & sitting on 10 year-lows!
Besides May Meal’s meteoric rise last week, May Wht was the most impressive upside mover – gaining 32 cents (506-539)! The rally to the severely oversold mkt can also be attributed to two factors -the recent consumer rush on US domestic bread supplies & China’s Friday purchase of 340,000 MT’s of US HRW for 2020/21 delivery! However the mkts explosive rally comes as no surprise – because that’s what any of the grains in the complex are capable of doing – when pressed at 10 year lows!!
Talk about volatility! Thy name is Apl Cattle! And such wild swings in price activity are often indicative of a major trend change – and we feel that’s exactly what happened to this contract this week! After a nearly vertical $36 plummet (128-91), the mkt put in a seasonal low on Tuesday at $91! The knee-jerk to Covid-19 was of course a sharp down, but the recent beef demand at the retail level has been unprecedented – as meat coolers around the country have sold out nearly every day!! And this demand effectively cratered the mkt!!
Well it turns out that the April Hog chart is a “carbon copy” of its sister mkt Apl Cat – as both mkts bottomed on Tuesday 3/17/20 and for the same reason – massive domestic demand! For the week, the hog contract gained $5.00 (56.37-61.57)! And foreign demand was no slouch either as cumulative exports were 184% of a year ago! So ironically the very factor – Covid-19 – that forced a precipitous $10 drop in Apl Hog futures (62-52) was also instrumental in igniting a sharp rally in the very same contract!
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