About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was lower and made new lows for the move. Ideas are that demand destruction is being caused by the Coronavirus and the weaker petroleum futures. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. China has also been slow to buy products from Southeast Asia and demand for US Cotton has been hurt in the entire region. The buying from the region has greatly improved over the last couple of weeks due to the people going back to work. The weaker petroleum futures make alternative fibers that much less costly. The US Dollar index was weaker yesterday but still gained on the Brazilian Real. Brazil has the quality to compete with the US and the Real is much cheaper than the US Dollar right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers starting on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to below normal this weekend. Texas will have scattered showers on Sunday. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 51.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 41,404 bales, from 41,580 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March Cotton contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 388 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 5560, 5500, and 5440 May, with resistance of 5860, 5940 and 6020 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower after failing to hold recent gains. Chart trends are mixed. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish nut are now part of the market. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 96.00, 94.00, and 92.00 May, with resistance at 101.00, 103.00, and 106.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London but closed well off the highs of the day. Prices were higher on news of a potential dockworkers strike in Brazil, but a strike was averted when the companies and the ports made moves to assure the workers about their health during the Coronavirus outbreak. The virus continues to expand at an alarming rate and is now covering many consumer countries in the west. People will still drink coffee, but many will drink less as cafes and restaurants are closing for the time being. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. Many producers and exporters have run out of Coffee in storage to sell. The Brazilian Real remains lower against the US Dollar Index and remains very cheap.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.092 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.61 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers in all areas today and tomorrow and in Minas Gerais starting on Sunday with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north. ICE said that 131 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,337 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 102.00 May, and resistance is at 113.00, 114.00 and 116.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1150 May. Support is at 1190, 1150, and 1120 May, and resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1290 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again on the back of weaker petroleum futures. The weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand will also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of good weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic for more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1060, 1030, and 1000 May, and resistance is at 1170, 1210, and 1220 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 322.00 May. Support is at 332.00, 329.00, and 326.00 May, and resistance is at 343.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower, but nearby London May closed higher. Funds and other speculators were net sellers. Harvest is now almost over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa, but showers are possible in coastal areas. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.901 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 732 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2190 May, with resistance at 2360, 2410, and 2420 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1750 and 1660 May. Support is at 1840, 1800, and 1790 May, with resistance at 1890, 1930, and 1980 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322