About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher on rumors of Chinese buying and on reports the US domestic millers were caught short of supplies and were scrambling to get covered. The sellers appeared to be mostly speculators and funds getting out of long positions and were selling on the Coronavirus news. The Coronavirus has made economic activity in the west hard to find as many persons have gone into quarantine. China apparently bought at least two cargoes of HRW here in the US for its first purchases of US grain in quite a while according to Reuters. Russia continues to lower its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. It has exported record amounts of Wheat so far this month but is not expected to impose any limits on its exporters.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains through Friday. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see some light snow today. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. China bought 340,000 tons of US HRW overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 550 and 584 May. Support is at 534, 525, and 521 May, with resistance at 540, 549, and 553 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 476 and 502 May. Support is at 466, 456, and 448 May, with resistance at 470, 483, and 493 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 532 and 548 May. Support is at 519, 516, and 515 May, and resistance is at 530, 534, and 538 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower in nearby months and lower in deferred months as futures gave up a portion of their recent gains. The domestic situation remains tight but sales to western countries have been below the levels of the previous weeks. Domestic consumers have been buying to have some food in their pantries just in case the Coronavirus gets worse and they are forced to stay at home for a longer period of time. Mills are looking hard for the remaining old crop stocks for processing. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1378, 1370, and 1360 May, with resistance at 1435, 1448, and 1460 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher but closed well off the highs of the day due to demand destruction fears caused by the Coronavirus and the Russian-Saudi trade war. Oats were a little higher. Demand for US Corn has been good despite everything that has been against big export sales. The spread of the Coronavirus was just one factor in the move lower. The Coronavirus now is being reported all over the world. The trade war between Russia and Saudi Arabia has hurt ag producers of all kinds, but it has really hurt them here in the US. Ethanol margins are very negative due to the cheap prices for crude oil and gasoline and there is no trend change in sight. The Coronavirus and the trade war could both keep going for a while.
Overnight News: China bought 756,000 tons of US Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 345, 332, and 330 May, and resistance is at 355, 356, and 364 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 237 May. Support is at 259, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 266, 268, and 272 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on logistical threats in Brazil. The Coronavirus has closed borders in South America although exports are still permitted. Soybean Meal especially was supported by increased demand ideas as there is now much less competition in the domestic and international market from DDG. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina and right now US prices are at or below those from South America even with the sharply higher US Dollar. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is now getting very beneficial rains this week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 832, 821, and 814 May, and resistance is at 856, 867, and 875 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 320.00 and 335.00 May. Support is at 311.00, 307.00, and 304.00 May, and resistance is at 322.00, 323.00, and 326.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 May, with resistance at 2600, 2630, and 2700 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher as the US Dollar rallied sharply and the Canadian Dollar fell sharply. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying and hopes that the worst of the Coronavirus news was part of the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 433.00 May. Support is at 453.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 465.00, 469.00, and 478.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 June, with resistance at 2300, 2330, and 2370 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+44 May
+160 May
+70 May
+54 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+47 May
+65 May
+58 May

May
+51 May
+70 May
+56 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 18
WINNIPEG, March 18 – The following are the closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 421.30 -32.00 May 2020 up 5.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 467.40 10.00 May 2020 up 4.10
Basis: Vancouver 482.40 25.00 May 2020 up 4.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 572.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
May 560.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 560.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 547.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 545.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 575.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
May 567.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 562.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 550.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 547.50 +25.00 Unquoted –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 582.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 570.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,380.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 176.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3900)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 212,672 lots, or 9.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,374 4,400 4,288 4,297 4,327 4,327 0 184,532 96,917
Jul-20 4,302 4,302 4,198 4,234 4,289 4,259 -30 40 111
Sep-20 4,246 4,250 4,156 4,181 4,172 4,189 17 26,033 32,347
Nov-20 4,079 4,088 4,030 4,050 4,038 4,058 20 46 320
Jan-21 4,107 4,157 4,058 4,073 4,062 4,089 27 2,021 4,950
Mar-21 – – – 4,103 4,076 4,103 27 0 1
Corn
Turnover: 430,261 lots, or 8.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,936 1,944 1,933 1,943 1,931 1,938 7 104,255 304,952
Jul-20 1,960 1,975 1,960 1,972 1,959 1,969 10 26,017 61,082
Sep-20 1,989 2,002 1,989 2,001 1,985 1,996 11 291,008 528,549
Nov-20 2,013 2,024 2,012 2,022 2,007 2,017 10 1,925 5,658
Jan-21 2,026 2,042 2,026 2,041 2,024 2,035 11 5,296 30,061
Mar-21 2,047 2,058 2,045 2,058 2,039 2,052 13 1,760 804
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,371,832 lots, or 66.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,810 2,850 2,803 2,831 2,763 2,830 67 693,818 724,360
Jul-20 2,790 2,820 2,762 2,820 2,725 2,797 72 92,795 81,904
Aug-20 2,804 2,826 2,766 2,826 2,739 2,805 66 37,801 2,640
Sep-20 2,800 2,825 2,777 2,817 2,739 2,803 64 1,458,742 1,425,635
Nov-20 2,776 2,828 2,776 2,824 2,741 2,813 72 15,896 2,699
Dec-20 2,794 2,827 2,794 2,818 2,756 2,816 60 95 358
Jan-21 2,784 2,822 2,783 2,800 2,753 2,797 44 72,630 102,258
Mar-21 2,770 2,800 2,750 2,782 2,738 2,782 44 55 129
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,293,697 lots, or 60.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 4,890 4,890 4,796 4,796 4,998 4,826 -172 3 2
May-20 4,730 4,762 4,622 4,658 4,666 4,686 20 992,057 211,323
Jun-20 4,846 4,846 4,846 4,846 4,754 4,846 92 1 21
Jul-20 4,752 4,752 4,752 4,752 4,750 4,752 2 1 309
Aug-20 – – – 4,680 4,680 4,680 0 0 3
Sep-20 4,736 4,736 4,606 4,684 4,576 4,670 94 297,233 183,402
Oct-20 – – – 4,716 4,622 4,716 94 0 8
Nov-20 4,724 4,724 4,724 4,724 4,578 4,724 146 1 6
Dec-20 4,770 4,792 4,676 4,700 4,650 4,710 60 10 162
Jan-21 4,784 4,784 4,674 4,748 4,626 4,744 118 4,390 16,315
Feb-21 4,752 4,752 4,752 4,752 4,684 4,752 68 1 3
Mar-21 – – – 4,726 4,726 4,726 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 795,882 lots, or 43.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,450 5,452 5,328 5,398 5,286 5,380 94 452,643 229,172
Jul-20 – – – 5,306 5,306 5,306 0 0 619
Aug-20 – – – 5,412 5,318 5,412 94 0 2
Sep-20 5,490 5,512 5,412 5,492 5,362 5,458 96 340,160 307,412
Nov-20 5,544 5,550 5,504 5,550 5,456 5,520 64 24 699
Dec-20 5,634 5,634 5,634 5,634 5,572 5,634 62 2 27
Jan-21 5,562 5,616 5,514 5,598 5,474 5,562 88 3,051 24,546
Mar-21 5,630 5,630 5,568 5,568 5,440 5,598 158 2 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322