About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 19
For the week ended Mar 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 338.3 143.8 23969.9 23143.2 4883.9 599.4
hrw 106.9 43.2 8879.9 8090.4 1746.6 143.3
srw 36.8 35.8 2337.6 3061.6 306.2 117.5
hrs 128.4 29.8 7104.7 6437.6 1614.3 171.7
white 65.9 15.1 4819.1 5072.6 1070.4 36.0
durum 0.4 20.0 828.6 481.1 146.4 131.0
corn 904.5 56.1 29017.8 41753.5 12815.7 1657.8
soybeans 631.6 69.6 34999.7 41423.0 4315.7 414.4
soymeal 129.1 0.0 8460.0 9045.9 3089.7 100.8
soyoil 18.9 2.0 776.1 536.3 236.9 2.5
upland cotto 340.7 78.5 14867.8 12346.6 7028.1 1775.0
pima cotton 17.2 0.0 521.6 583.8 234.2 35.3
sorghum 366.0 0.0 2364.9 947.2 1206.9 33.0
barley 0.0 0.0 49.1 59.3 14.7 31.0
rice 48.1 0.0 2815.9 2488.0 792.5 0.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher on rumors of Chinese buying and on reports the US domestic millers were caught short of supplies and were scrambling to get covered. The sellers appeared to be mostly speculators and funds getting out of long positions and were selling on the Coronavirus news. The Coronavirus has made economic activity in the west hard to find as many persons have gone into quarantine. Russia continues to lower its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. It has exported record amounts of Wheat so far this month but is not expected to impose any limits on its exporters. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains through Friday. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see some light snow today. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 494, 491, and 488 May, with resistance at 514, 526, and 529 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 439, 432, and 4124 May, with resistance at 448, 451, and 454 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 503, 501, and 498 May, and resistance is at 517, 528, and 534 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher in nearby months and higher in deferred months and the nearby months made new highs for the move and new contract highs. The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been good although below the levels of the previous weeks. Domestic consumers have been buying to have some food in their pantries just in case the Coronavirus gets worse and they are forced to stay at home for a longer period of time. Mills are looking hard for the remaining old crop stocks for processing. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. It was a short crop grown under very difficult conditions, so producers are willing to hold out for better prices. Those that sold early have seen the Rice consumed already.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1398, 1378, and 1370 May, with resistance at 1436, 1448, and 1460 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on demand destruction fears caused by the Coronavirus and the Russian-Saudi trade war. Oats were lower. Demand for US Corn has been good despite everything that has been against big export sales. The spread of the Coronavirus was just one factor in the move lower. The Coronavirus now is being reported all over the world. The trade war between Russia and Saudi Arabia has hurt ag producers of all kinds, but it has really hurt them here in the US. Ethanol margins are now very negative due to the cheap prices for crude oil and gasoline and there is no trend change in sight. The Coronavirus and the trade war could both keep going for a while.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 332, 330, and 327 May, and resistance is at 345, 357, and 364 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 237 May. Support is at 252, 248, and 245 March, and resistance is at 259, 266, and 268 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed to higher as the Coronavirus and the Saudi-Russian trade war took prominence over any demand ideas. Soybean Meal especially was supported by increased demand ideas as there is now much less competition in the domestic and international market from DDG. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina and right now US prices are at or below those from South America even with the sharply higher US Dollar. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is now getting very beneficial rains this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 820, 8814, and 808 May, and resistance is at 838, 852, and 867 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 296.00, and 294.00 May, and resistance is at 307.00, 308.00, and 311.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 May, with resistance at 2600, 2630, and 2700 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher as the US Dollar rallied sharply and the Canadian Dollar fell sharply. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying and hopes that the worst of the Coronavirus news was part of the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 463.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 465.00, 469.00, and 478.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2130 June, with resistance at 2330, 2400, and 2430 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+44 May
+152 May
+70 May
+51 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+47 May
+65 May
+53 May

May
+50 May
+70 May
+53 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 18
WINNIPEG, March 18 – The following are the closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 421.30 -32.00 May 2020 up 5.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 467.40 10.00 May 2020 up 4.10
Basis: Vancouver 482.40 25.00 May 2020 up 4.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Mar 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 552.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 542.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 540.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 522.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 555.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 545.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 542.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 525.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.00 -13.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 577.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 565.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,280 -120.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 169.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4070)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 311,703 lots, or 13.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,315 4,371 4,271 4,360 4,292 4,327 35 262,847 108,146
Jul-20 4,360 4,360 4,225 4,303 4,243 4,289 46 63 120
Sep-20 4,102 4,227 4,102 4,199 4,038 4,172 134 45,747 30,652
Nov-20 4,050 4,088 3,974 4,068 3,953 4,038 85 101 309
Jan-21 4,020 4,100 4,003 4,089 3,970 4,062 92 2,945 4,746
Mar-21 – – – 4,076 3,984 4,076 92 0 1
Corn
Turnover: 452,299 lots, or 8.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,930 1,934 1,928 1,932 1,938 1,931 -7 67,007 308,091
Jul-20 1,956 1,965 1,955 1,960 1,969 1,959 -10 29,927 59,740
Sep-20 1,989 1,992 1,981 1,985 1,994 1,985 -9 340,035 512,084
Nov-20 2,008 2,012 2,002 2,007 2,016 2,007 -9 4,385 5,714
Jan-21 2,026 2,031 2,019 2,025 2,034 2,024 -10 8,662 27,410
Mar-21 2,039 2,046 2,034 2,039 2,051 2,039 -12 2,283 840
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,221,831 lots, or 61.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,786 2,792 2,735 2,750 2,776 2,763 -13 705,885 792,109
Jul-20 2,742 2,753 2,699 2,717 2,737 2,725 -12 95,580 75,189
Aug-20 2,767 2,768 2,710 2,729 2,762 2,739 -23 34,923 3,051
Sep-20 2,763 2,773 2,707 2,732 2,767 2,739 -28 1,322,206 1,442,757
Nov-20 2,774 2,776 2,712 2,739 2,776 2,741 -35 16,093 3,128
Dec-20 2,769 2,783 2,739 2,746 2,787 2,756 -31 138 354
Jan-21 2,778 2,783 2,726 2,744 2,782 2,753 -29 46,957 82,971
Mar-21 2,750 2,763 2,718 2,718 2,761 2,738 -23 49 108
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,099,611 lots, or 97.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 5,072 5,072 4,910 4,976 4,864 4,998 134 13 3
May-20 4,718 4,744 4,570 4,670 4,770 4,666 -104 1,703,723 230,850
Jun-20 4,664 4,874 4,664 4,842 4,902 4,754 -148 27 21
Jul-20 4,716 4,784 4,716 4,784 4,860 4,750 -110 2 310
Aug-20 4,680 4,688 4,670 4,688 4,712 4,680 -32 4 3
Sep-20 4,622 4,672 4,490 4,660 4,648 4,576 -72 392,732 195,852
Oct-20 4,590 4,674 4,552 4,670 4,616 4,622 6 57 8
Nov-20 4,584 4,584 4,572 4,572 4,742 4,578 -164 2 7
Dec-20 4,644 4,706 4,604 4,604 4,720 4,650 -70 3 167
Jan-21 4,600 4,714 4,532 4,706 4,702 4,626 -76 3,047 16,304
Feb-21 4,684 4,684 4,684 4,684 4,738 4,684 -54 1 4
Mar-21 – – – 4,726 4,726 4,726 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,166,921 lots, or 62.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,262 5,374 5,178 5,350 5,272 5,286 14 740,728 250,371
Jul-20 5,308 5,410 5,250 5,410 5,364 5,306 -58 6 619
Aug-20 – – – 5,318 5,376 5,318 -58 0 2
Sep-20 5,346 5,432 5,280 5,422 5,346 5,362 16 422,528 292,957
Nov-20 5,456 5,522 5,362 5,504 5,428 5,456 28 63 709
Dec-20 – – – 5,572 5,544 5,572 28 0 29
Jan-21 5,468 5,536 5,392 5,528 5,460 5,474 14 3,596 24,281
Mar-21 – – – 5,440 5,428 5,440 12 0 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322