Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was a little higher despite fears of global economic slowdowns created by the Coronavirus and the collapse in Crude Oil prices due to the trade war between the Saudis and the Russians. The buying came in part due to the weaker, but still very strong US Dollar Index. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. China has also been slow to buy products from Southeast Asia and demand for US Cotton has been hurt in the entire region. The strong US Dollar hurts trade anywhere and pushes buying to alternative growths like Brazil. The US Dollar index was weaker but still gained on the Brazilian Real. Brazil has the quality to compete with the US and the Real is much cheaper than the US Dollar right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers. Temperatures will trend to near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 56.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 40,152 ba1es, from 40,152 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March Cotton contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 459 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 484,200 bales this year and 160,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 17,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6220, 6170, and 6120 May, with resistance of 6420, 6490 and 6510 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and trends have turned sideways again. The fundamentals remain bearish but the price action suggests that a rally is possible. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 96.00, 94.00, and 92.00 May, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 May.
DJ Coronavirus Hits Citrus Exports To Asia, Glut Building In US — Market Talk
1035 ET – Limoneira, the agribusiness focused on citrus, avocados and other crops, has seen exports of lemons and oranges to Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia fall significantly as demand weakens with shoppers staying home amid the coronavirus pandemic, CEO Harold Edwards told investors. “People aren’t going out as much in those markets,” he said on a call about quarterly results. At the same time, ports are grappling with virus-related challenges, hampering logistics and shipping, according to Edwards. And as a result, a glut of lemons and oranges is building in the domestic market, hurting prices. Limoneira cut its forecast for adjusted Ebitda yesterday amid those challenges. Shares off 28% as the market sells off. (email@example.com; @MicahMaidenberg)
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London. World economic problems caused by the Coronavirus scare and the drop in Crude Oil prices sent Coffee futures lower. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. Many producers and exporters have run out of Coffee in storage to sell. The chart trends are mixed in New York and down in London due to the big production ideas, and could rally in the lack of Brazil and also Central American supply becomes acute. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year. The Real lost once again to the US Dollar Index and remains very cheap.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.103 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.59 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north. ICE said that 17 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,146 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 105.00, and 103.00 May, and resistance is at 116.00, 117.00 and 122.00 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1250, 1220, and 1190 May, and resistance is at 1290, 1310, and 1340 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again sue to weaker petroleum futures. The weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India even after what was reported to be a very good production year. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of good weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic for more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time. Brazil mills reportedly hedged off their Ethanol production so the economic losses due to the recent drop in prices will not be felt.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1220, 1200, and 1170 May, and resistance is at 1270, 1290, and 1320 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 354.00, 348.00, and 341.00 May, and resistance is at 365.00, 370.00, and 380.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. Trends on the daily charts are mixed to down and trends remain down on the weekly charts. Funds and other speculators were net sellers. Harvest is now almost over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. Ivory Coast did report its first case of Coronavirus yesterday. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa, but showers are possible in coastal areas. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.751 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 730 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2600, 2540, and 2510 May, with resistance at 2630, 2660, and 2700 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1840 May, with resistance at 1930, 1980, and 2000 May.