About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 13, 2020 62 Mar 10, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 13, 2020 26 Mar 11, 2020
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 13, 2020 5 Mar 09, 2020
CORN March Mar. 13, 2020 106 Feb 27, 2020
SOYBEAN March Mar. 13, 2020 220 Mar 11, 2020

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 12
For the week ended Mar 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 452.3 28.5 23631.5 22844.7 4917.3 455.6
hrw 169.3 5.0 8773.0 7963.6 1779.4 100.1
srw 6.7 3.5 2300.9 3002.4 336.8 81.7
hrs 171.6 20.0 6976.4 6373.9 1606.9 142.0
white 104.6 0.0 4753.2 5034.7 1046.0 20.9
durum 0.0 0.0 828.2 470.2 148.4 111.0
corn 1471.2 128.1 28113.2 40897.6 12881.3 1601.7
soybeans 302.8 1.4 34368.2 41106.3 4167.5 344.8
soymeal 171.8 0.1 8330.9 8948.5 3252.0 100.8
soyoil 24.7 0.0 757.2 530.8 257.1 0.5
upland cotto 484.2 160.4 14527.1 12221.6 7057.0 1696.5
pima cotton 17.3 0.0 504.5 561.7 232.8 35.3
sorghum 260.2 0.0 1999.0 882.4 915.9 33.0
barley 0.0 0.0 49.2 60.2 14.9 31.0
rice 42.5 0.0 2767.9 2393.7 765.1 0.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the US Dollar held and the Black Sea Wheat market did not hold at all. The sellers appeared to be mostly speculators and funds getting out of long positions. The move lower came because of weaker world prices. Russia continues to lower its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace. There is a space for US Wheat in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently. The stronger US Dollar makes it more difficult for US producers and exporters to sell US Wheat into the world market. The US Dollar still remains at strong levels. Chart trends are sideways to down.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow today in the west and Sunday in the north. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions in the north and snow showers in the south. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 510, 506, and 503 May, with resistance at 526, 529, and 534 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 422 May. Support is at 433, 430, and 427 May, with resistance at 448, 451, and 456 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 506 and 495 May. Support is at 510, 507, and 504 May, and resistance is at 517, 528, and 534 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in old crop months on the tight supply scenario as seen in the latest USDA monthly updates and as reported by observers throughout the south. New crop months were weaker on ideas of a large planted area and a return of yields to normal. The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been good although below the levels of the previous weeks. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet. It was a short crop grown under very difficult conditions, so producers are willing to hold out for better prices. Those that sold early have seen the Rice consumed already. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1269, and 1262 May, with resistance at 1312, 1320, and 1331 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower in sympathy with the weakness in Crude Oil futures and also on the effects of the Coronavirus. Oats were a little lower after trading both sides of unchanged. Demand for US Corn has been good despite everything that has been against big export sales. The spread of the Coronavirus was just one factor in the move lower. The Coronavirus is being reported all over the world. The US Dollar did move lower last week but remains at very high levels. Export demand was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead, in part due to weaker petroleum demand ideas caused by the virus and in part due to the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has resulted in increased Crude Oil production and significantly lower prices. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand is improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 366 and 358 May. Support is at 370, 366, and 363 May, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 287 and 304 May. Support is at 271, 268, and 261 March, and resistance is at 281, 286, and 290 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower after trading higher during the session. News that unknown destinations, probably China, had bought old and new crop Soybeans gave futures the initial lift. Soybean Meal was a little lower and Soybean Oil was lower. It seems like everyone is waiting for the trade deal with China to kick in and for them to buy in quantity and there was some talk last week that China had bought cargoes of Soybeans from the PNW. The talk might have gotten USDA confirmation yesterday. Soybean Oil was weaker on the collapse in Crude Oil prices caused by the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The trade war has disrupted supply chains across the globe for fuels and bio fuels. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and has just raised its export tax by 3%. That will help push export demand to Brazil and potentially the US. A strong US Dollar has hurt US export chances in all products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 867, 8860, and 848 May, and resistance is at 885, 889, and 900 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed Support is at 301.00, 296.00, and 294.00 May, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 308.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2620 May. Support is at 2710, 2680, and 2650 May, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2930 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on price action in Chicago. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Strength in Soybeans help Canola while firmer Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices could also be supportive. All were lower yesterday due to the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Palm Oil was lower on speculative selling tied to long liquidation before the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 454.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 464.00, 469.00, and 470.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2440, 2380, and 2310 May, with resistance at 2500, 2530, and 2580 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March +54 Mar +150 May +70 May +45 May +12 May N/A
April +56 May +70 May +50 May
May +55 May +70 May +52 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for March 5, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 434.90 -32.00 May 2020 up 0.30
Track Thunder Bay 470.50 7.00 May 2020 dn 3.40
Track Vancouver 481.50 18.00 May 2020 dn 3.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 615.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 607.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 607.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 610.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 622.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 617.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 610.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 610.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 612.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 630.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Mar 2,480.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 183.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M4.1760)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,004 lots, or 7.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,700 3,800 100 101 429
May-20 4,237 4,248 4,198 4,218 4,238 4,223 -15 155,508 135,657
Jul-20 4,208 4,219 4,201 4,205 4,214 4,208 -6 23 118
Sep-20 4,125 4,155 4,082 4,095 4,139 4,104 -35 16,873 27,979
Nov-20 4,060 4,060 3,992 4,006 4,026 4,008 -18 15 296
Jan-21 4,026 4,041 4,009 4,012 4,045 4,024 -21 484 2,655
Corn
Turnover: 503,258 lots, or 9.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 1,900 1,938 1,900 -38 0 417
May-20 1,941 1,943 1,933 1,935 1,942 1,937 -5 291,178 507,825
Jul-20 1,956 1,965 1,953 1,964 1,960 1,959 -1 36,610 70,541
Sep-20 1,985 1,990 1,978 1,986 1,985 1,985 0 170,944 396,153
Nov-20 2,001 2,004 1,998 2,002 2,001 2,000 -1 2,026 5,855
Jan-21 2,010 2,014 2,007 2,012 2,010 2,010 0 2,500 10,946
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,132,905 lots, or 30.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,708 2,691 -17 145 1,194
May-20 2,703 2,720 2,693 2,717 2,722 2,709 -13 588,588 1,168,100
Jul-20 2,728 2,738 2,712 2,735 2,740 2,728 -12 95,608 91,175
Aug-20 2,750 2,769 2,749 2,760 2,776 2,758 -18 5,580 3,181
Sep-20 2,765 2,779 2,757 2,773 2,785 2,769 -16 423,807 1,524,782
Nov-20 2,800 2,800 2,779 2,795 2,808 2,792 -16 8,378 2,706
Dec-20 2,827 2,827 2,827 2,827 2,832 2,827 -5 60 364
Jan-21 2,820 2,833 2,811 2,826 2,837 2,825 -12 10,739 43,823
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,121,284 lots, or 57.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,042 5,042 5,042 0 0 10
Apr-20 5,128 5,194 5,128 5,194 5,254 5,160 -94 4 6
May-20 5,140 5,144 5,082 5,106 5,178 5,118 -60 968,153 306,746
Jun-20 5,092 5,170 5,046 5,062 5,128 5,076 -52 12 51
Jul-20 – – – 5,204 5,204 5,204 0 0 318
Aug-20 5,304 5,304 5,254 5,254 5,294 5,290 -4 4 1
Sep-20 5,302 5,302 5,220 5,234 5,324 5,252 -72 149,867 172,636
Oct-20 – – – 5,300 5,300 5,300 0 0 6
Nov-20 5,284 5,294 5,284 5,294 5,304 5,286 -18 4 12
Dec-20 – – – 5,366 5,366 5,366 0 0 161
Jan-21 5,346 5,346 5,278 5,280 5,362 5,308 -54 3,240 11,196
Feb-21 – – – 5,426 5,480 5,426 -54 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 506,737 lots, or 29.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,282 5,282 5,282 0 0 0
May-20 5,702 5,726 5,658 5,678 5,774 5,692 -82 389,655 323,148
Jul-20 – – – 5,874 5,874 5,874 0 0 627
Aug-20 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,872 5,872 5,800 5,812 5,910 5,834 -76 113,702 247,346
Nov-20 – – – 5,990 5,990 5,990 0 0 656
Dec-20 – – – 6,074 6,074 6,074 0 0 23
Jan-21 6,020 6,020 5,938 5,944 6,042 5,980 -62 3,380 27,037
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322