About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Friday, March 13, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 16, 2020 253 Mar 12, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 16, 2020 7 Mar 12, 2020
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 16, 2020 26 Mar 10, 2020
CORN March Mar. 16, 2020 147 Mar 04, 2020
SOYBEAN March Mar. 16, 2020 7 Mar 11, 2020
WHEAT March Mar. 16, 2020 50 Mar 06, 2020

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the US Dollar moved sharply higher against other world currencies and the Black Sea Wheat market worked lower. The sellers appeared to be mostly speculators and funds. The move lower came because of weaker world prices. Russia continues to lower its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. US Wheat continue to move along at a moderate pace. There is a space for US Wheat in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently. The stronger US Dollar makes it more difficult for US producers and exporters to sell US Wheat into the world market. The US Dollar still remains at strong levels. Chart trends are sideways to down.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers today and Saturday and again early next week. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow this weekend in the west and Sunday in the north. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions in the north and snow showers in the south. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 484 and 456 May. Support is at 497, 494, and 491 May, with resistance at 506, 514, and 526 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 422 and 415 May. Support is at 424, 421, and 418 May, with resistance at 438, 448, and 451 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 495 May. Support is at 501, 498, and 495 May, and resistance is at 517, 528, and 534 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in old crop months on the tight supply scenario as seen in the latest USDA monthly updates and as reported by observers throughout the south. New crop months were unchanged on ideas of a large planted area and a return of yields to normal. That means a big production increase is possible later this Summer The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been good although below the levels of the previous weeks. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet. It was a short crop grown under very difficult conditions, so producers are willing to hold out for better prices. Those that sold early have seen the Rice consumed already. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1351 and 1392 May. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1269 May, with resistance at 1331, 1333, and 1352 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower in sympathy with the weakness in Crude Oil futures and also on the effects of the Coronavirus. Oats were slightly higher after trading mostly lower during the session. Demand for US Corn has been good despite everything that has been against big export sales and the weekly export sales report was very strong yesterday. The spread of the Coronavirus was just one factor in the move lower. The Coronavirus is being reported all over the world. The US Dollar was sharply higher yesterday and remains at very high levels. Export demand was very strong last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead, in part due to weaker petroleum demand ideas caused by the virus and in part due to the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has resulted in increased Crude Oil production and significantly lower prices. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 136,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 358 May. Support is at 363, 360, and 357 May, and resistance is at 374, 380, and 384 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 287 and 304 May. Support is at 271, 268, and 261 March, and resistance is at 281, 286, and 290 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower while Soybean Meal closed mixed. The weekly export sales report was not strong and showed cancellations with China. China also cancelled some pork purchases. It seems like everyone is waiting for the trade deal with China to kick in and for them to buy in quantity but the Chinese have not done this yet and are probably waiting for lower US prices before making their move. Soybean Oil was weaker on the collapse in Crude Oil prices caused by the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The trade war has disrupted supply chains across the globe for fuels and bio fuels. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon because of the lower prices but prices in Brazil and Argentina remain under pressure as well. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and has just raised its export tax by 3%. That will help push export demand to Brazil and potentially the US. A strong US Dollar has hurt US export chances in all products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 836 May. Support is at 850, 847, and 844 May, and resistance is at 867, 875, and 885 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed Support is at 301.00, 296.00, and 294.00 May, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 308.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2620 May. Support is at 2620, 2590, and 2560 May, with resistance at 2710, 2760, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on price action in Chicago. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Strength in Soybeans help Canola while firmer Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices could also be supportive. All were lower yesterday due to the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Palm Oil was lower on speculative selling tied to long liquidation before the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 446.00 and 433.00 May. Support is at 451.00, 448.00, and 445.00 May, with resistance at 455.00, 465.00, and 469.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2140 May, with resistance at 2300, 2400, and 2430 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March +54 Mar +150 May +70 May +45 May +12 May N/A
April +56 May +70 May +50 May
May +55 May +70 May +52 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 12
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 428.10 -32.00 May 2020 dn 0.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 461.00 10.00 May 2020 dn 6.10
Basis: Vancouver 476.00 25.00 May 2020 dn 2.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 582.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 582.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 567.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 557.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 557.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 585.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 585.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 570.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 560.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 560.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 590.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 585.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Mar 2,400.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 170.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M4.2800)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 228,714 lots, or 9.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 3,698 3,862 3,698 -164 0 0
May-20 4,130 4,179 4,046 4,164 4,147 4,119 -28 198,344 99,188
Jul-20 4,120 4,168 4,055 4,147 4,138 4,117 -21 89 141
Sep-20 3,982 3,989 3,866 3,965 4,003 3,930 -73 29,169 28,966
Nov-20 3,867 3,982 3,867 3,914 3,973 3,950 -23 67 258
Jan-21 3,913 3,926 3,818 3,903 3,950 3,865 -85 1,045 2,981
Corn
Turnover: 522,533 lots, or 10.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 1,900 1,900 1,900 0 0 0
May-20 1,951 1,957 1,947 1,953 1,953 1,952 -1 123,419 395,441
Jul-20 1,976 1,987 1,976 1,981 1,983 1,981 -2 30,796 69,634
Sep-20 2,003 2,015 1,999 2,010 2,010 2,007 -3 359,306 605,719
Nov-20 2,022 2,030 2,018 2,025 2,027 2,024 -3 2,828 5,928
Jan-21 2,038 2,046 2,037 2,040 2,042 2,040 -2 6,184 24,176
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,265,244 lots, or 61.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,711 2,718 2,711 2,718 2,692 2,696 4 83 0
May-20 2,667 2,745 2,664 2,739 2,668 2,710 42 983,325 921,575
Jul-20 2,680 2,726 2,673 2,718 2,680 2,696 16 94,350 82,269
Aug-20 2,701 2,749 2,693 2,745 2,711 2,723 12 17,893 3,384
Sep-20 2,714 2,763 2,711 2,758 2,722 2,734 12 1,127,417 1,409,523
Nov-20 2,738 2,779 2,727 2,775 2,740 2,755 15 10,173 2,690
Dec-20 2,760 2,787 2,730 2,787 2,751 2,768 17 70 420
Jan-21 2,731 2,781 2,728 2,778 2,750 2,754 4 31,933 76,969
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,334,472 lots, or 61.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 4,762 4,764 4,762 -2 0 0
Apr-20 – – – 4,782 4,932 4,782 -150 0 6
May-20 4,638 4,694 4,526 4,676 4,726 4,606 -120 1,068,356 250,128
Jun-20 4,452 4,736 4,452 4,688 4,678 4,584 -94 85 37
Jul-20 4,644 4,690 4,644 4,666 4,760 4,666 -94 6 317
Aug-20 4,652 4,652 4,652 4,652 4,866 4,652 -214 1 2
Sep-20 4,680 4,698 4,558 4,676 4,794 4,614 -180 260,622 169,496
Oct-20 – – – 4,854 4,854 4,854 0 0 5
Nov-20 4,654 4,654 4,654 4,654 4,882 4,654 -228 1 9
Dec-20 4,678 4,714 4,656 4,694 4,878 4,696 -182 17 172
Jan-21 4,798 4,798 4,626 4,734 4,868 4,688 -180 5,376 14,336
Feb-21 4,714 4,768 4,714 4,768 4,962 4,726 -236 8 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 727,967 lots, or 38.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,282 5,282 5,282 0 0 0
May-20 5,190 5,286 5,114 5,280 5,294 5,196 -98 470,791 276,990
Jul-20 5,294 5,362 5,260 5,362 5,404 5,302 -102 4 623
Aug-20 – – – 5,388 5,388 5,388 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,312 5,376 5,242 5,368 5,416 5,300 -116 250,482 250,428
Nov-20 5,380 5,460 5,376 5,434 5,516 5,408 -108 23 669
Dec-20 5,494 5,500 5,494 5,496 5,722 5,496 -226 3 21
Jan-21 5,470 5,490 5,362 5,484 5,524 5,426 -98 6,664 23,906
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769-7021 | (312) 264-4364 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
To SUBSCRIBE to Morning Grains please click here.

To Unsubscribe from Morning Grains please click here.

Click Here to View the Morning Grains Archives

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322