Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: June Bonds are currently 3’01 higher at 183’18, 10 Yr. Notes 1’14.0 higher at 138’26.5 and the 5 Yr. Note up o’24.50 at125’02.5. The Bonds have had quite a week with lows of 179’17 and highs above 193’00 (basis March contracts) as the market gyrated on coronavirus and European stimulus news. For a brief moment all treasuries including the 30 year Bond traded with a yield below 1.0%..It now appears, based on Fed Fund futures, that next week the FOMC may lower rates by an additional 50-75 basis points. As I mentioned last week, look for a global competitive race to the bottom as far as rates are concerned. I still have a neutral bias at this time, but I will be looking for opportunity in Eurodollar spreads over the next week.
Grains: May Corn is currently 6’0 lower at 368’4, Beans 17’2 lower at 856’0 and Wheat 8’2 lower 503’0. Took profits on long May Corn positions and looking to reinstate the position on any further sharp break (10-15 cents) from current prices.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have followed must other markets to the downside as traders and hedgers ponder the economic risks associated with the coronavirus. People will not go shopping for fear of contracting the virus in a crowed enclosed space. The predominate trend is to the downside.
Silver: May Silver is currently 45 cents lower at 16.32. Silver is exhibiting collateral damage as equities drop along with interest rates and just about everything else that is traded. I’m staying long for the moment. My thinking is that lower rates and a faltering Dollar should eventually add value to this marked which has a history of being a store of value, 2nd to Gold
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently down the 5.0% limit ( 139.50 points) at 2589.50.The corona virus is the story as market participants watch the travel and leisure businesses crumble along with many other businesses that require the movement of crowds of people in enclosed places. The economic consequences are currently just theory but will probably be self full filling prophesy. I am taking profits on all short biased position (futures and options Support starts a 2520.00
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 18 lower at 1.1266, the Yen 54.5 higher at 0.96195, the Pound156 lower at 1.2688 and the Dollar Index 0.603 higher at 97.095 During the last week we were stopped out of long Pound positions and remain long the Euro and short the Dollar Index.