About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher last week after a narrow range trade. The buying came in part due to the weaker, but still very strong US Dollar Index. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. China has also been slow to buy products from Southeast Asia and demand for US Cotton has been hurt in the entire region. The strong US Dollar hurts trade anywhere and pushes buying to alternative growths like Brazil. The US Dollar index was weaker last week but still gained on the Brazilian Real. Brazil has the quality to compete with the US and the Real is much cheaper than the US Dollar right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see mostly dry conditions until some rains return on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but showers on Thursday. Temperatures will trend to near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 57.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 36 ba170es, from 39,815 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March Cotton contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 459 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6220, 6170, and 6120 May, with resistance of 6420, 6490 and 6510 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 03, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 241,734
: Positions :
: 28,608 32,097 57,695 56,958 126,343 87,710 14,665 230,971 230,800: 10,763 10,934
: Changes from: February 25, 2020 (Change in open interest: 19,134) :
: -8,410 3,265 10,713 19,087 -7 -102 5,380 21,288 19,350: -2,154 -216
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 13.3 23.9 23.6 52.3 36.3 6.1 95.5 95.5: 4.5 4.5
: Total Traders: 296 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 85 85 54 57 51 28 234 216:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher for the week in narrow range trading. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 96.00, 92.00, and 91.00 May, with resistance at 99.00, 100.00, and 103.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Mar 9
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
2/22/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
2/22/2020 2/23/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 302.52 244.51 23.7%
Retail/Institutional 7.18 5.44 31.9%
Total 309.70 249.95 23.9%
Pack
Bulk 2.21 1.86 18.8%
Retail/Institutional 1.11 1.39 -19.5%
Total Pack 3.32 3.24 2.5%
Reprocessed -2.56 -2.00 27.9%
Pack from Fruit 0.76 1.24 -38.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.04 -0.05 -20.1%
Imports – Foreign 4.79 14.27 -66.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.06 0.08 -22.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.94 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.04 0.07 -41.8%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 309.05 258.73 19.4%
Retail/Institutional 8.29 6.83 21.5%
Total 317.35 265.56 19.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.23 7.53 -30.5%
Exports 0.20 3.97 -95.1%
Total (Bulk) 5.43 11.50 -52.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.27 1.14 10.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.27 1.14 10.9%
Total Movement 6.69 12.64 -47.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 303.63 247.24 22.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.02 5.68 23.6%
Ending Inventory 310.65 252.92 22.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
22-Feb-20 23-Feb-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 68.50 63.97 7.1%
Retail/Institutional 26.13 24.14 8.3%
Total Pack 94.64 88.11 7.4%
Reprocessed -49.21 -48.87 0.7%
Pack from Fruit 45.43 39.25 15.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.32 -0.74 78.1%
Imports – Foreign 49.40 102.34 -51.7%
Domestic Receipts 7.73 1.61 381.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.18 0.04 415.9%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 11.95 1.65 624.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.78 0.60 30.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 399.95 357.80 11.8%
Retail/Institutional 31.96 30.06 6.3%
Total 431.91 387.86 11.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 90.70 100.00 -9.3%
Domestic 5.63 10.57 -46.7%
Exports 96.32 110.57 -12.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 24.93 24.37 2.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 24.93 24.37 2.3%
Total Movement 121.26 134.94 -10.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 303.63 247.24 22.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.02 5.68 23.6%
Ending Inventory 310.65 252.92 22.8%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 3, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 19,681 :
: Positions :
: 9,804 6,165 1,142 0 0 1,100 8,643 227 2,406 1,026 1,809 :
: Changes from: February 25, 2020 :
: -62 -281 -23 0 0 36 467 -331 352 -122 209 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.8 31.3 5.8 0.0 0.0 5.6 43.9 1.2 12.2 5.2 9.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 83 :
: 20 11 5 0 0 6 22 . 17 9 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and a little lower in London. It was a wild week of trading that saw NY futures trade above the 120.00 per pound level before collapsing. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. Many producers and exporters have run out of Coffee in storage to sell. The chart trends are mixed to up in New York and mixed in London due to the big production ideas, and futures could form a bottom in the current trading range. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year. The Real lost once again to the US Dollar Index and remains very cheap.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.112 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 105.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north. ICE said that 261 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,707 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 100.00 May, and resistance is at 110.00, 114.00 and 117.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1210 and 1150 May. Support is at 1220, 1190, and 1160 May, and resistance is at 1270, 1310, and 1340 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 03, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 363,773
: Positions :
: 30,411 33,640 115,078 132,461 184,028 73,105 22,244 351,055 354,989: 12,718 8,784
: Changes from: February 25, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,748) :
: 1,701 -11,299 6,776 -2,170 12,059 -1,590 -4,707 4,716 2,829: 31 1,919
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 9.2 31.6 36.4 50.6 20.1 6.1 96.5 97.6: 3.5 2.4
: Total Traders: 428 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 128 99 151 114 114 48 24 373 321:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower again on the back of weaker petroleum futures. The weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of good weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic for more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1270 May, and resistance is at 1350, 1380, and 1400 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 365.00, and 357.00 May, and resistance is at 380.00, 391.00, and 398.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 03, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,311,716
: Positions :
: 185,670 111,403 276,187 419,495 816,621 338,242 49,725 1,219,595 1,253,936: 92,121 57,781
: Changes from: February 25, 2020 (Change in open interest: -71,947) :
: -33,013 10,531 -28,695 1,489 -50,642 -4,008 -8,400 -64,227 -77,206: -7,719 5,259
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 8.5 21.1 32.0 62.3 25.8 3.8 93.0 95.6: 7.0 4.4
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 52 88 83 74 45 24 250 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower for the week and trends remain down on the weekly charts. Funds and other speculators were net sellers. Harvest is now almost over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa, but showers are possible in coastal areas. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.753 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 730 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2540, 2510, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2630, 2660, and 2700 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1830 May, with resistance at 1930, 1980, and 2000 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 03, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 376,626
: Positions :
: 79,220 45,943 114,809 92,693 176,070 75,012 26,145 361,734 362,967: 14,892 13,659
: Changes from: February 25, 2020 (Change in open interest: -14,552) :
: -9,588 -1,306 -4,681 408 -9,155 -1,229 -812 -15,090 -15,955: 538 1,403
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.0 12.2 30.5 24.6 46.7 19.9 6.9 96.0 96.4: 4.0 3.6
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 61 96 39 39 35 21 219 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322