Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. January Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Mar 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2020—- —-Dec 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 118,624,416 261,566,837 116,920,207 257,809,056
coffee, roasted 7,644,220 16,855,505 8,132,455 17,932,063
instant 4,140,300 9,129,362 3,815,914 8,414,090
cocoa beans 41,093,205 90,610,517 37,786,020 83,318,174
10 lbs or over 2,911,523 6,419,908 1,766,238 3,894,555
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,237,092 20,367,788 9,795,952 21,600,074
not defatted 5,577,068 12,297,435 2,971,305 6,551,728
defatted 4,503,733 9,930,731 3,465,852 7,642,204
unsweetened 7,060,586 15,568,592 8,304,306 18,310,995
sweetened 92,459 203,872 464,120 1,023,385
coating 4,638,117 10,227,048 3,921,661 8,647,263
chocolate 8,815,148 19,437,401 8,859,513 19,535,226
General Comments Cotton was lower yesterday. A weaker US stock market hurt the Cotton futures. Traders are waiting to see the US export sales report out this morning. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. A strong US Dollar hurts trade anywhere and pushes buying to alternative growths like Brazil. Brazil has the quality to compete with the US and the Real is much cheaper than the US Dollar right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see mostly dry conditions until some rains return on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but showers on Thursday. Temperatures will trend to near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 57.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 37,522 bales, from 37,522 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March Cotton contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 459 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6270, 6220, and 6170 May, with resistance of 6420, 6490 and 6510 May.
DJ U.S. January Cotton Exports-Mar 6
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Jan 19(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 13,031,129 10,646,492 8,359,281 14,511,360
1 to 1 1/8 inch 160,698,460 113,517,286 64,298,190 102,469,785
upland 1 1/8 and over 190,159,094 155,753,550 104,412,209 140,268,013
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 6,034,700 7,478,294 6,115,896 9,402,435
All cotton 369,923,383 287,395,622 183,185,576 266,651,593
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Jan 19(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 59,851 48,899 38,394 66,650
1 to 1 1/8 inch 738,082 521,381 295,319 470,640
upland 1 1/8 and over 873,394 715,370 479,561 644,246
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 27,717 34,348 28,090 43,185
All cotton 1,699,044 1,319,997 841,364 1,224,721
DJ On-Call Cotton – Mar 5
As of Feb 28. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Mar 20 2 1,007 -1,005 137 422 -285
May 20 19,837 28,385 -8,548 14,250 14,577 -327
Jul 20 26,937 28,117 -1,180 4,943 4,938 5
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 21,979 22,928 -949 21,258 20,925 333
Mar 21 10,552 9,021 1,531 1,586 1,286 300
May 21 4,077 3,453 624 228 218 10
Jul 21 7,540 6,404 1,136 816 816 0
Dec 21 1,217 1,128 89 2,361 2,257 104
Mar 22 466 466 0 13 13 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 92,607 100,909 -8,302 45,606 45,466 140
Mar 20 69 477 -408
May 20 106,729 107,994 -1,265
Jul 20 45,104 42,497 2,607
Oct 20 83 78 5
Dec 20 37,653 39,062 -1,409
Mar 21 6,943 5,982 961
May 21 671 531 140
Jul 21 1,509 1,185 324
Dec 21 962 783 179
Mar 22 16 3 13
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 199,739 198,592 1,147
General Comments: FCOJ was lower. Futures have really recovered from the lows set previously, but are now moving back lower again. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have kept prices weaker. The weather has been great for the trees, but many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Dry weather is still a problem in Mexico, but Brazil growing conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 96.00, 92.00, and 91.00 May, with resistance at 99.00, 100.00, and 103.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were lower in liquidation trading. The weaker Brazilian Real was considered a negative although it remains unclear that producers and exporters there have much Coffee to sell. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. Many producers and exporters have run out of Coffee in storage to sell. The chart trends are mixed in New York on the lack of supply and mixed in London due to the big production ideas. Rains are reported in Brazil Coffee areas It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.112 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers, mostly in Minas Gerais, with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north. ICE said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,446 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 107.00, 105.00, and 102.00 May, and resistance is at 117.00, 122.00 and 125.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1240, and 1230 May, and resistance is at 1310, 1340, and 1380 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower for one more day. Any bullish influence and need to get mills and others to produce more Sugar and less Ethanol seems to be a thing of the past now. The weaker petroleum futures markets overall make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers mostly in Minas Gerais. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1320, 1300, and 1280 May, and resistance is at 1380, 1400, and 1440 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 379.00, 370.00, and 365.00 May, and resistance is at 391.00, 398.00, and 400.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. Funds and other speculators were sellers. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa, but showers are possible in coastal areas. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.753 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 730 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2610 May. Support is at 2580, 2540, and 2510 May, with resistance at 2630, 2660, and 2700 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1840 May. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1830 May, with resistance at 1930, 1980, and 2000 May.