About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 09, 2020 31 Mar 03, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 09, 2020 44 Feb 28, 2020
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 09, 2020 11 Feb 27, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 09, 2020 7 Mar 02, 2020
SOYBEAN March Mar. 09, 2020 199 Mar 04, 2020

DJ U.S. January Grain Exports-Mar 6
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Jan 19(*)
Barley 4,935,169 3,549,000 3,204,384 7,286,770
Corn /1 2,494,779,000 2,508,110,000 2,473,759,000 4,665,800,000
Sorghum 252,083,000 429,017,000 284,147,000 117,137,000
Oats 2,591,827 2,108,645 2,356,541 1,892,365
Rye 156,917 191,000 114,601 121,000
Wheat /1 1,880,541,355 2,161,218,136 1,814,104,673 2,016,578,503
wheat flour /1 22,285,228 19,393,854 22,539,306 25,143,793
Malt 36,006,869 33,837,887 33,513,454 41,833,978
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Jan 19(*)
Barley 226,668 163,003 147,175 334,675
Corn /1 98,214,103 98,738,916 97,386,591 183,682,547
Sorghum 9,923,967 16,889,480 11,186,258 4,611,433
Oats 178,561 145,272 162,351 130,372
Rye 6,177 7,519 4,512 4,764
Wheat /1 69,097,357 79,410,358 66,656,252 74,095,815
wheat flour /1 491,305 427,561 496,907 554,326
Malt 79,381,572 74,599,784 73,884,531 92,228,150
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. January Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Mar 6
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Jan 19(*)
soybeans 5,319,216,023 5,570,376,324 7,005,296,109 4,828,433,634
soyoil 56,754,373 83,597,599 112,200,119 100,271,958
crude 44,792,336 63,337,525 93,464,898 86,321,768
refined 117,811 26,618 168,085 169,398
other/1 11,604,484 20,064,091 18,337,287 13,586,229
hydrogenated 239,742 169,365 229,849 194,563
cottonseed oil 3,350,588 2,995,985 6,330,822 4,651,061
crude 287,428 436,031 2,090,513 118,664
refined 1,950,488 1,175,021 1,261,995 3,135,512
other/1 1,112,672 1,360,432 2,978,314 1,396,885
hydrogenated 0 24,501 0 0
sunseeds 139,950 95,844 57,787 19,958
sunseed oil 3,763,147 3,547,768 5,709,363 3,519,202
rapeseed 15,539,122 16,936,345 27,302,991 16,346,307
rapeseed oil 7,162,668 10,661,340 6,807,545 7,900,562
crude 617,984 6,671,711 2,805,849 3,482,348
refined 6,544,684 3,989,629 4,001,696 4,418,214
linseed meal 96,195 150,303 74,674 197,821
cottonseed meal 9,314,249 7,004,919 10,795,817 8,760,794
soymeal 709,529,097 787,612,454 860,831,849 1,043,006,958
soymeal/flour 255,531,628 219,553,686 254,959,594 304,115,298
soymeal hulls 18,361,000 9,703,000 3,633,000 39,109,000
lard 2,432,874 2,193,897 2,249,238 1,242,287
edible tallow 12,182,157 11,565,601 10,290,873 9,339,102
inedible tallow 23,993,259 38,124,785 33,967,318 23,832,537
ch white grease 0 36,421 0 8,285
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Jan 20 Dec 19 Nov 19 Jan 19(*)
soybeans 195,445,726 204,674,192 257,397,928 177,412,745
soyoil 125,121,996 184,301,190 247,358,963 221,061,865
crude 98,750,214 139,635,364 206,054,864 190,306,955
refined 259,729 58,683 370,564 373,459
other/1 25,583,512 44,233,756 40,426,805 29,952,513
hydrogenated 528,541 373,386 506,730 428,938
cottonseed oil 7,386,783 6,605,017 13,957,076 10,253,836
crude 633,670 961,284 4,608,793 261,609
refined 4,300,091 2,590,478 2,782,223 6,912,622
other/1 2,453,022 2,999,240 6,566,060 3,079,605
hydrogenated 0 54,015 0 0
sunseeds 308,537 211,300 127,399 44,000
sunseed oil 8,296,320 7,821,491 12,586,993 7,758,514
rapeseed 34,257,906 37,338,256 60,192,802 36,037,444
rapeseed oil 15,790,983 23,504,235 15,008,070 17,417,761
crude 1,362,422 14,708,608 6,185,839 7,677,264
refined 14,428,561 8,795,628 8,822,231 9,740,496
linseed meal 106 166 82 218
cottonseed meal 10,267 7,722 11,900 9,657
soymeal 782,114 868,185 948,895 1,149,707
soymeal flour/me 281,673 242,014 281,042 335,226
soymeal hulls 20,239 10,696 4,005 43,110
lard 5,363,570 4,836,716 4,958,722 2,738,774
edible tallow 26,857,064 25,497,790 22,687,495 20,589,199
inedible tallow 52,896,091 84,050,778 74,885,131 52,541,759
ch white grease 0 80,295 0 18,265

DJ U.S. January Grain Imports-Mar 6
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2020—- —-Dec 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 814,483 1,795,935 449,703 991,595
spring wheat 4,142,498 9,134,208 3,002,343 6,620,166
winter wheat 5,521,264 12,174,387 328,063 723,379
wheat/meslin 64,990,645 143,304,372 31,755,902 70,021,764
TOTAL WHEAT 75,468,890 166,408,902 35,536,011 78,356,904
barley 8,794,326 19,391,489 8,473,172 18,683,344
oats 756,837 1,668,826 335,664 740,139
corn 35,001,660 77,178,660 56,686,204 124,993,080
other corn 11,612,706 25,606,017 11,233,903 24,770,756
TOTAL CORN 46,614,366 102,784,677 67,920,107 149,763,836

DJ U.S. Jan Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Mar 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2020—- —-Dec 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 51,347,342 113,220,889 44,835,704 98,862,727
palm kernel oil 17,956,230 39,593,487 27,198,421 59,972,518
palm oil 86,431,329 190,581,080 159,494,170 351,684,645
soybean 22,979,107 50,668,931 35,418,269 78,097,283
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 14,800,242 32,634,534 16,048,581 35,387,121
rapeseed oil
edible 169,404,234 373,536,336 158,130,030 348,676,716
rapeseed oil,
inedible 1,140 2,514 15,834 34,914

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on the weakness in world prices once again. The exception was in Chicago SRW where nearby months were slightly firmer due to forecasts for a lot of rain in the Ohio River Valley. The overall weakness came on the back of weaker world prices. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. Support came from the weaker US Dollar. It is possible that Wheat futures are done going down. Finding much upside might be difficult unless the US Dollar keeps moving lower as world prices are still weak.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 516, 512, and 506 May, with resistance at 522, 526, and 529 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 439 and 422 May. Support is at 442, 439, and 445 May, with resistance at 456, 459, and 466 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 521, 518, and 516 May, and resistance is at 528, 534, and 538 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower in liquidation trading. Speculators were the best sellers as chart trends turned down. Tight nearby supplies continues to support futures, but the lack of demand is hurting any upside potential. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts and will spill into the November contract as well. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1296 and 1237 May. Support is at 1300, 1278, and 1268 May, with resistance at 1320, 1331, and 1333 May.

DJ Rice Prices Gain on Demand for Indica Rice — Market Talk
0519 GMT – The FAO’s All Rice Price Index rose 1.4% in February due to higher prices of long-grain Indica rice, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization says in a note. February quotations of Vietnamese 5% broken rice climbed 4.7% last month over January values to their highest level since December 2018, boosted by strong demand from Malaysian and Filipino buyers and a seasonal tightening in availability, it adds. Interest from East African buyers also boosted prices for Pakistani rice, the FAO says. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on Coronavirus fears and demand concerns. The export sales report showed sales at the low-end of market ideas and there were np real sales to China. Ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead, in part due to weaker petroleum demand ideas caused by the virus. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 211,336 tons o US Corn and Japan bought 234,688 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 381, 376, and 373 May, and resistance is at 387, 389, and 393 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 261, 257, and 254 March, and resistance is at 273, 275, and 281 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower. A weaker US stock market and worries about demand were reasons for the selling. The weekly export sales report was not strong for Soybeans and showed no trade with China. The sales report was good for the products. It seems like everyone is waiting for the trade deal with China to kick in and for them to buy in quantity. Chinese companies can now apply for tariff exemptions for purchase from the US and are expected to do so this week or soon. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and has just raised its export tax by 3%. That will push export demand to Brazil and potentially the US. China in the meantime is expected to buy the next crop in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 895, 885, and 878 May, and resistance is at 904, 912, and 917 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed Support is at 303.00, 301.00, and 300.00 May, and resistance is at 308.00, 311.00, and 313.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2920, 2840, and 2810 May, with resistance at 3010, 3040, and 3100 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on follow through speculative buying. Trends are up on the daily charts. Strength in Soybeans help Canola while firmer Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices were also supportive. The Bank of Canada also dropped its interest rates by 0.5% this week. Palm Oil was lower on speculative selling tied to long liquidation before the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 May. Support is at 460.00, 457.00, and 454.00 May, with resistance at 469.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2580 May. Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2380 May, with resistance at 2580, 2620, and 2670 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal, but will turn warm late this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+54 Mar
+150 May
+70 May
+45 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+56 May
+70 May
+50 May

May
+55 May
+70 May
+52 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for March 5, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 434.90 -32.00 May 2020 up 0.30
Track Thunder Bay 470.50 7.00 May 2020 dn 3.40
Track Vancouver 481.50 18.00 May 2020 dn 3.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 615.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 607.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 607.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 610.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 622.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 617.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 610.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 610.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 612.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 630.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Mar 2,480.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 183.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M4.1760)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,004 lots, or 7.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,800 3,700 3,800 100 101 429
May-20 4,237 4,248 4,198 4,218 4,238 4,223 -15 155,508 135,657
Jul-20 4,208 4,219 4,201 4,205 4,214 4,208 -6 23 118
Sep-20 4,125 4,155 4,082 4,095 4,139 4,104 -35 16,873 27,979
Nov-20 4,060 4,060 3,992 4,006 4,026 4,008 -18 15 296
Jan-21 4,026 4,041 4,009 4,012 4,045 4,024 -21 484 2,655
Corn
Turnover: 503,258 lots, or 9.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 1,900 1,938 1,900 -38 0 417
May-20 1,941 1,943 1,933 1,935 1,942 1,937 -5 291,178 507,825
Jul-20 1,956 1,965 1,953 1,964 1,960 1,959 -1 36,610 70,541
Sep-20 1,985 1,990 1,978 1,986 1,985 1,985 0 170,944 396,153
Nov-20 2,001 2,004 1,998 2,002 2,001 2,000 -1 2,026 5,855
Jan-21 2,010 2,014 2,007 2,012 2,010 2,010 0 2,500 10,946
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,132,905 lots, or 30.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,690 2,708 2,691 -17 145 1,194
May-20 2,703 2,720 2,693 2,717 2,722 2,709 -13 588,588 1,168,100
Jul-20 2,728 2,738 2,712 2,735 2,740 2,728 -12 95,608 91,175
Aug-20 2,750 2,769 2,749 2,760 2,776 2,758 -18 5,580 3,181
Sep-20 2,765 2,779 2,757 2,773 2,785 2,769 -16 423,807 1,524,782
Nov-20 2,800 2,800 2,779 2,795 2,808 2,792 -16 8,378 2,706
Dec-20 2,827 2,827 2,827 2,827 2,832 2,827 -5 60 364
Jan-21 2,820 2,833 2,811 2,826 2,837 2,825 -12 10,739 43,823
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,121,284 lots, or 57.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,042 5,042 5,042 0 0 10
Apr-20 5,128 5,194 5,128 5,194 5,254 5,160 -94 4 6
May-20 5,140 5,144 5,082 5,106 5,178 5,118 -60 968,153 306,746
Jun-20 5,092 5,170 5,046 5,062 5,128 5,076 -52 12 51
Jul-20 – – – 5,204 5,204 5,204 0 0 318
Aug-20 5,304 5,304 5,254 5,254 5,294 5,290 -4 4 1
Sep-20 5,302 5,302 5,220 5,234 5,324 5,252 -72 149,867 172,636
Oct-20 – – – 5,300 5,300 5,300 0 0 6
Nov-20 5,284 5,294 5,284 5,294 5,304 5,286 -18 4 12
Dec-20 – – – 5,366 5,366 5,366 0 0 161
Jan-21 5,346 5,346 5,278 5,280 5,362 5,308 -54 3,240 11,196
Feb-21 – – – 5,426 5,480 5,426 -54 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 506,737 lots, or 29.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,282 5,282 5,282 0 0 0
May-20 5,702 5,726 5,658 5,678 5,774 5,692 -82 389,655 323,148
Jul-20 – – – 5,874 5,874 5,874 0 0 627
Aug-20 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,872 5,872 5,800 5,812 5,910 5,834 -76 113,702 247,346
Nov-20 – – – 5,990 5,990 5,990 0 0 656
Dec-20 – – – 6,074 6,074 6,074 0 0 23
Jan-21 6,020 6,020 5,938 5,944 6,042 5,980 -62 3,380 27,037
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322