About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 05, 2020 555 Mar 02, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 05, 2020 108 Feb 28, 2020
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 05, 2020 7 Feb 26, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 05, 2020 9 Feb 28, 2020
SOYBEAN March Mar. 05, 2020 384 Mar 03, 2020

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on the weaker US Dollar and on talk that China was looking for US Spring Wheat. The Chinese rumors were not confirmed. The overall weakness in the Winter Wheat markets in Chicago came on the back of weaker world prices. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. Support came from the weaker US Dollar. It is possible that Wheat futures are done going down. Finding much upside might be difficult unless the US Dollar keeps moving lower as world prices are still weak.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 526, 521, and 516 May, with resistance at 534, 540, and 549 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 456, 446, and 442 May, with resistance at 466, 469, and 475 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 546 and 563 May. Support is at 534, 529, and 526 May, and resistance is at 540, 545, and 550 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in below average trading volume. There was nothing to drive futures higher or lower yesterday. Tight nearby supplies continues to support futures, but the lack of demand is hurting any upside potential. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts and will spill into the November contract as well. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1346, 1343, and 1333 May, with resistance at 1369, 1374, and 1378 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 4
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.38 9.71 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.05 10.34 0.00
Brokens 9.76 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday. Oats were lower. There was talk that China was looking at buying US Corn, but any sales were not confirmed. The weakness in the US Dollar supported Corn. The spread of the Coronavirus was just another factor to keep prices lower. The Coronavirus has been seen in China and neighboring countries, but now is being reported all over the world. Export demand was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead, in part due to weaker petroleum demand ideas caused by the virus. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.
Overnight News: China bought 110,000 tons of US Sorghum yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 373, and 370 May, and resistance is at 385, 387, and 389 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 260, 257, and 254 March, and resistance is at 270, 275, and 281 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher. Soybean Meal was also a little higher as was Soybean Oil. There was no talk of sales to China in the Soy complex yesterday, so Soybeans were firm but not as strong as Corn or Wheat. It seems like everyone is waiting for the trade deal with China to kick in and for them to buy in quantity. Chinese companies can now apply for tariff exemptions for purchase from the US and are expected to do so this week or soon. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and has just raised its export tax by 3%. That will push export demand to Brazil and potentially the US. China in the meantime is expected to buy the next crop in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 916 and 937 May. Support is at 899, 895, and 885 May, and resistance is at 910, 917, and 923 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 310.00 and 320.00 May Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 303.00 May, and resistance is at 311.00, 315.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2840, 2810, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2970, 3010, and 3040 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on follow through speculative buying. Trends are up on the daily charts. Strength in Soybeans help Canola while firmer Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices were also supportive. New reports that the Coronavirus had spread to the US with 43 cases and one reported death did not hurt the market action. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene. Palm Oil was sharply higher on speculative buying tied to bargain hunting and on consumptive buying from India and China. Production is lower but is starting to increase seasonally.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 May. Support is at 460.00, 457.00, and 454.00 May, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2240 May. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2230 May, with resistance at 2410, 2480, and 2520 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal, but will turn warm late this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+54 Mar
+150 May
+70 May
+45 May
+12 May
N/A
April
+56 May
+70 May
+50 May

May
+55 May
+70 May
+52 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 2
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for March 2, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 416.30 -36.50 Mar 2020 dn 0.30
Track Thunder Bay 470.00 7.00 May 2020 up 6.70
Track Vancouver 481.00 18.00 May 2020 up 6.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 620.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 615.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 617.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 620.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 622.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 622.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 617.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 620.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 622.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 630.00 +20.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,510.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 175.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M4.1780)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,265 lots, or 7.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 3,650 3,639 3,650 11 0 429
May-20 4,166 4,210 4,142 4,203 4,155 4,180 25 172,966 126,695
Jul-20 4,180 4,203 4,152 4,169 4,179 4,173 -6 83 123
Sep-20 4,055 4,117 4,050 4,114 4,065 4,085 20 10,733 23,570
Nov-20 4,000 4,011 4,000 4,011 3,993 4,005 12 11 285
Jan-21 3,984 4,030 3,978 4,029 3,991 4,013 22 472 2,042
Corn
Turnover: 279,877 lots, or 5.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,008 2,008 1,890 1,890 1,895 1,938 43 40 747
May-20 1,942 1,945 1,936 1,938 1,943 1,938 -5 183,093 545,478
Jul-20 1,959 1,964 1,955 1,959 1,963 1,958 -5 12,661 66,815
Sep-20 1,986 1,990 1,980 1,983 1,988 1,983 -5 81,815 379,031
Nov-20 2,000 2,002 1,996 1,999 2,002 1,998 -4 844 5,791
Jan-21 2,009 2,012 2,006 2,009 2,011 2,008 -3 1,424 10,446
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,139,058 lots, or 31.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,730 2,730 2,730 2,730 2,693 2,730 37 1 1,219
May-20 2,734 2,745 2,710 2,718 2,727 2,723 -4 632,886 1,188,971
Jul-20 2,757 2,768 2,731 2,737 2,749 2,742 -7 51,904 93,028
Aug-20 2,779 2,797 2,765 2,772 2,780 2,776 -4 6,094 2,825
Sep-20 2,791 2,809 2,776 2,782 2,791 2,787 -4 423,658 1,480,740
Nov-20 2,807 2,830 2,800 2,804 2,812 2,808 -4 14,755 2,306
Dec-20 2,802 2,843 2,802 2,828 2,836 2,830 -6 11 310
Jan-21 2,822 2,856 2,822 2,835 2,840 2,838 -2 9,749 43,001
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,491,082 lots, or 75.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 4,758 4,758 4,758 4,758 5,060 4,758 -302 1 10
Apr-20 5,050 5,172 5,032 5,164 5,144 5,098 -46 18 9
May-20 5,008 5,074 4,966 5,052 5,010 5,010 0 1,319,124 361,485
Jun-20 4,988 5,004 4,988 5,004 4,948 4,996 48 8 51
Jul-20 – – – 5,000 4,978 5,000 22 0 318
Aug-20 5,278 5,278 5,240 5,240 5,166 5,268 102 4 5
Sep-20 5,158 5,246 5,152 5,228 5,148 5,186 38 168,826 159,645
Oct-20 – – – 5,164 5,128 5,164 36 0 6
Nov-20 5,208 5,208 5,208 5,208 5,096 5,208 112 1 12
Dec-20 5,238 5,238 5,238 5,238 5,198 5,238 40 2 160
Jan-21 5,200 5,300 5,200 5,278 5,176 5,244 68 3,098 9,264
Feb-21 – – – 5,326 5,326 5,326 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 535,776 lots, or 30.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,282 5,282 5,282 0 0 0
May-20 5,680 5,742 5,656 5,726 5,672 5,690 18 411,770 339,052
Jul-20 5,790 5,790 5,790 5,790 5,756 5,790 34 1 627
Aug-20 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 4
Sep-20 5,816 5,872 5,796 5,858 5,802 5,826 24 108,634 211,069
Nov-20 – – – 5,906 5,906 5,906 0 0 656
Dec-20 5,988 5,988 5,988 5,988 5,978 5,988 10 1 23
Jan-21 5,950 6,006 5,940 5,992 5,942 5,958 16 15,370 25,359
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322