About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 04, 2020 922 Mar 02, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 04, 2020 343 Feb 28, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 04, 2020 9 Feb 28, 2020
SOYBEAN March Mar. 04, 2020 1000 Feb 28, 2020

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 27, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/27/2020 02/20/2020 02/28/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 699 0 122 29,131 6,974
CORN 896,221 912,922 865,617 14,117,930 25,818,110
FLAXSEED 0 0 100 520 342
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 2,766 1,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 73,207 16,661 58,736 1,401,677 885,024
SOYBEANS 670,608 596,274 848,895 29,556,691 25,969,580
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 654,097 436,937 488,829 18,825,725 17,010,229
Total 2,294,832 1,962,794 2,262,299 63,934,440 69,692,252
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed in Chicago, but higher in Minneapolis. Chicago SRW closed a little lower but HRW closed a little higher. The move lower in the Winter Wheat markets in Chicago came on the back of weaker world prices. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales and to move the old crop Wheat out of storage before the new crop comes in. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. Support came from the weaker US Dollar and the rebound in the US and world equity markets. It was generally a nice recovery from the lows and it is possible that Wheat futures are done going down. Finding much upside might be difficult unless the US Dollar keeps moving lower as world prices are still weak.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 516, 512, and 506 May, with resistance at 528, 533, and 540 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 446, 442, and 439 May, with resistance at 464, 466, and 469 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 518 May. Support is at 521, 518, and 516 May, and resistance is at 534, 535, and 540 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was little changed after trading both sides of unchanged. There was just nothing to drive futures higher or lower yesterday. Tight nearby supplies continues to support futures, but the lack of demand is hurting any upside potential. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. It was a short crop grown under very difficult conditions, so producers are willing to hold out for better prices. Those that sold early have seen the Rice consumed already. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1346, 1343, and 1333 May, with resistance at 1374, 1378, and 1380 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday. Oats were lower. The weakness in the US Dollar supported Corn. The spread of the Coronavirus was just another factor to keep prices lower. The Coronavirus has been seen in China and neighboring countries, but now is being reported all over the world. Export demand was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead, in part due to weaker petroleum demand ideas caused by the virus. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 358 May. Support is at 373, 370, and 366 May, and resistance is at 379, 381, and 385 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 263, 260, and 257 March, and resistance is at 275, 281, and 283 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher. Soybean Meal was higher on buying related to spreads against Soybean Oil. Soybean Oil also managed to close a little higher. It seems like everyone is waiting for the trade deal with China to kick in and for them to buy in quantity and there was some talk late last week that China had bought a few cargoes of Soybeans from the PNW. This talk was not confirmed. China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country and it is no longer expected to seek any modifications. Chinese companies can now apply for tariff exemptions for purchase from the US and are expected to do so this week. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and has just raised its export tax by 3%. That will push export demand to Brazil and potentially the US. China in the meantime is expected to buy the next crop in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 916 and 937 May. Support is at 895, 885, and 878 May, and resistance is at 910, 917, and 923 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 310.00 and 320.00 May Support is at 304.00, 303.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 3011.00, 315.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2840, 2810, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2970, 3010, and 3040 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher and trends turned up on the daily charts. Strength in Soybeans help Canola while firmer Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices were also supportive. New reports that the Coronavirus  had spread to the US with 43 cases and one reported death did not hurt the market action. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene. Palm Oil was slightly higher on speculative buying tied to bargain hunting. Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries. Production is lower but is starting to increase seasonally.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 466.00 and 475.00 May. Support is at 457.00, 454.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 470.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2240 May. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2230 May, with resistance at 2410, 2480, and 2520 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal, but will turn warm late this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March
+54 Mar
+150 May
+120 May
+57 Mar
+12 May
N/A
April
+56 May
+105 May
+52 May

May
+54 May
+105 May
+51 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 2
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for March 2, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 416.30 -36.50 Mar 2020 dn 0.30
Track Thunder Bay 470.00 7.00 May 2020 up 6.70
Track Vancouver 481.00 18.00 May 2020 up 6.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 607.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 602.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 600.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 602.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 605.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 602.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 605.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 607.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,430.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 180.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2050)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 110,975 lots, or 4.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,625 3,660 3,625 3,660 3,650 3,639 -11 305 429
May-20 4,166 4,185 4,136 4,161 4,134 4,155 21 102,334 117,023
Jul-20 4,219 4,220 4,155 4,186 4,141 4,179 38 151 172
Sep-20 4,045 4,095 4,045 4,062 4,047 4,065 18 8,011 23,531
Nov-20 4,010 4,010 3,985 3,985 3,983 3,993 10 3 279
Jan-21 4,005 4,010 3,978 3,989 3,974 3,991 17 171 1,707
Corn
Turnover: 394,063 lots, or 7.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,909 1,909 1,882 1,882 1,896 1,895 -1 4 1,762
May-20 1,945 1,950 1,939 1,941 1,938 1,943 5 277,988 556,607
Jul-20 1,964 1,968 1,959 1,959 1,958 1,963 5 18,467 65,774
Sep-20 1,992 1,995 1,985 1,985 1,983 1,988 5 94,888 374,113
Nov-20 2,006 2,007 1,999 2,001 1,997 2,002 5 1,519 5,948
Jan-21 2,013 2,014 2,009 2,010 2,008 2,011 3 1,197 10,626
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,643,437 lots, or 45.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,670 2,695 2,670 2,695 2,680 2,693 13 134 1,220
May-20 2,731 2,749 2,711 2,730 2,697 2,727 30 871,715 1,242,216
Jul-20 2,758 2,774 2,735 2,752 2,721 2,749 28 77,555 93,821
Aug-20 2,793 2,811 2,764 2,777 2,754 2,780 26 9,713 2,530
Sep-20 2,806 2,815 2,773 2,790 2,762 2,791 29 651,155 1,435,095
Nov-20 2,829 2,838 2,797 2,814 2,789 2,812 23 20,595 2,249
Dec-20 2,802 2,849 2,802 2,833 2,802 2,836 34 27 306
Jan-21 2,842 2,862 2,824 2,840 2,814 2,840 26 12,543 39,568
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,344,005 lots, or 67.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,060 5,060 5,060 0 0 10
Apr-20 – – – 5,144 5,144 5,144 0 0 10
May-20 5,050 5,102 4,944 4,970 5,022 5,010 -12 1,217,786 394,791
Jun-20 5,008 5,008 4,914 4,944 4,988 4,948 -40 21 52
Jul-20 – – – 4,978 4,978 4,978 0 0 318
Aug-20 5,166 5,166 5,166 5,166 5,158 5,166 8 1 2
Sep-20 5,150 5,210 5,096 5,122 5,122 5,148 26 123,639 155,929
Oct-20 5,106 5,152 5,106 5,152 5,088 5,128 40 2 6
Nov-20 – – – 5,096 5,096 5,096 0 0 13
Dec-20 5,218 5,218 5,186 5,186 5,170 5,198 28 5 160
Jan-21 5,152 5,222 5,150 5,182 5,144 5,176 32 2,551 8,905
Feb-21 – – – 5,326 5,294 5,326 32 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 562,346 lots, or 32.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,282 5,282 5,282 0 0 0
May-20 5,702 5,726 5,634 5,666 5,650 5,672 22 434,826 354,232
Jul-20 5,756 5,756 5,756 5,756 5,758 5,756 -2 1 628
Aug-20 5,836 5,836 5,758 5,758 5,796 5,796 0 2 4
Sep-20 5,808 5,848 5,766 5,800 5,778 5,802 24 120,488 206,885
Nov-20 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,826 5,906 80 1 656
Dec-20 5,978 5,978 5,978 5,978 5,980 5,978 -2 1 23
Jan-21 5,928 5,978 5,902 5,938 5,918 5,942 24 7,027 21,379
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322