About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was sharply lower last week. The selling came in part due to a delayed response to the shocks caused by the Coronavirus and in part due to the very strong US Dollar Index. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the US and China. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow. The strong US Dollar hurts trade anywhere and pushes buying to alternative growths like Brazil. Brazil has the quality to compete with the US and the Real is much cheaper than the US Dollar right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some big rains today and tomorrow. Temperatures should average near to below normal after snow. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 57.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 37,522 ba1es, from 37,522 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March Cotton contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 321 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 6120, 6110, and 6090 May, with resistance of 6270, 6370 and 6400 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 25, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 222,600
: Positions :
: 37,017 28,833 46,982 37,871 126,350 87,813 9,285 209,683 211,450: 12,917 11,150
: Changes from: February 18, 2020 (Change in open interest: -9,928) :
: -2,989 3,284 -4,548 993 -9,963 -409 1,375 -6,954 -9,852: -2,974 -76
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.6 13.0 21.1 17.0 56.8 39.4 4.2 94.2 95.0: 5.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 297 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 79 87 47 58 49 22 236 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher for the week in wide range trading. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 23% above last year. The year to year percentage change has decreased as the increase in inventories happened last year and has held high this year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 91.00, and 88.00 May, with resistance at 97.00, 99.00, and 100.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 25, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 19,862 :
: Positions :
: 9,866 6,445 1,165 0 0 1,064 8,176 558 2,054 1,148 1,601 :
: Changes from: February 18, 2020 :
: -590 -903 8 0 -1 -166 -144 -169 73 -32 -890 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.7 32.5 5.9 0.0 0.0 5.4 41.2 2.8 10.3 5.8 8.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 87 :
: 21 12 5 0 0 5 22 4 18 7 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York and a little lower in London. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. Many producers and exporters have run out of Coffee in storage to sell. The chart trends are mixed to up in New York and mixed in London due to the big production ideas, and futures could form a bottom in the current trading range. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.139 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north. ICE said that 5 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and tat total deliveries for the month are now 1,241 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 107.00, 105.00, and 102.00 May, and resistance is at 113.00, 114.00 and 116.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1260, and 1230 May, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1340 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 25, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 359,025
: Positions :
: 28,710 44,939 108,302 134,631 171,969 74,695 26,950 346,339 352,160: 12,686 6,865
: Changes from: February 18, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,265) :
: -1,758 -2,053 9,833 -5,346 -4,391 402 -759 3,131 2,630: 134 635
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 12.5 30.2 37.5 47.9 20.8 7.5 96.5 98.1: 3.5 1.9
: Total Traders: 432 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 96 150 119 117 49 24 371 330:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/25/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
157,655 95,538 60,742 14,493 13,736 1,492
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.6% 38.5% 9.2% 8.7% 0.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
161 54 39 12 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,491 46,390 14,083 4,158 1,640 16,337
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.5% 29.4% 8.9% 2.6% 1.0% 10.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 34 16 13 14 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,062 3,235
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower on the back of weaker petroleum futures. The weaker petroleum futures make higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand. That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar. The mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal. ICE said that 18,8210 contracts were delivered against March Sugar 11 futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1370 May. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1430, 1450, and 1470 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 388.00 May. Support is at 392.00, 389.00, and 379.00 May, and resistance is at 400.00, 409.00, and 412.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 25, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,383,663
: Positions :
: 218,684 100,872 304,882 418,006 867,263 342,250 58,125 1,283,822 1,331,141: 99,841 52,521
: Changes from: February 18, 2020 (Change in open interest: -34,395) :
: 15,072 -4,641 4,589 -45,857 -26,290 5,164 -8,037 -21,032 -34,379: -13,363 -16
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.8 7.3 22.0 30.2 62.7 24.7 4.2 92.8 96.2: 7.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 288 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 44 98 82 78 45 24 268 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/25/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
133,621 49,660 105,045 12,367 4,164 4,165
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 37.2% 78.6% 9.3% 3.1% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 41 45 11 5 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
42,584 2,526 11,226 5,395 1,885 2,640
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
31.9% 1.9% 8.4% 4.0% 1.4% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 5 11 11 6 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,584 1,970
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 1.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower for the week and trends turned down on the weekly charts. Funds and other speculators were net sellers. Harvest is now almost over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently strong but less than before. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.716 million bags. ICE said that 8 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 63 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2600 May. Support is at 2650, 2620, and 2580 May, with resistance at 2740, 2790, and 2830 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1920 and 1840 May. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1880 May, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 25, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 391,178
: Positions :
: 88,808 47,249 119,490 92,285 185,226 76,241 26,957 376,824 378,922: 14,354 12,256
: Changes from: February 18, 2020 (Change in open interest: 857) :
: 1,785 779 315 1,907 2,523 -2,219 -1,821 1,788 1,796: -931 -939
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.7 12.1 30.5 23.6 47.4 19.5 6.9 96.3 96.9: 3.7 3.1
: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 69 101 37 40 36 22 227 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/25/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
404,847 169,025 268,014 33,403 16,334 26,078
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 41.8% 66.2% 8.3% 4.0% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 53 49 11 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
72,462 2,281 36,582 8,949 487 52,770
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.9% 0.6% 9.0% 2.2% 0.1% 13.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 10 19 21 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,578 2,300
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322