Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Feb 28
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 02, 2020 1237 Feb 25, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 02, 2020 1107 Feb 27, 2020
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 02, 2020 427 Feb 26, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 02, 2020 9 Oct 31, 2019
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on weaker world prices for Wheat and the spread of the Coronavirus that could affect demand. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently. The super strong US Dollar adds to the difficulty US producers and exporters have with sales of US Wheat into the world market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 517 May. Support is at 520, 515, and 512 May, with resistance at 540, 549, and 553 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 451 May. Support is at 446, 442, and 435 May, with resistance at 464, 466, and 469 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 518 May. Support is at 521, 518, and 516 May, and resistance is at 528, 534, and 535 May.
General Comments: Rice was mixed to a little higher in range trading. Futures seem to be in a comfort zone right now between ideas of small offers and better demand and the problems encountered by the strength in the US Dollar and the Coronavirus. Rice felt less effect from news of the spread of the Coronavirus because the countries it has spread to do not really buy a lot of US Long Grain. Some producers are selling the next crop. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1346, 1333, and 1331 May, with resistance at 1363, 1374, and 1380 May.
DJ Thai Drought May Cause THB26B in Losses, USDA Says — Market Talk
0144 GMT – The current severe drought in Thailand may cause an estimated THB26 billion in agricultural production losses, mainly due to reduced 2019-20 off-season rice production, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. The USDA adds that the drought is also expected to affect off-season field crops, fruit trees and freshwater fish farming production, but to a smaller degree than for rice. It says the Thai government has restricted irrigation supplies for rice production to ensure sufficient water supplies for household consumption and ecological management until June. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower in response to the spread of the Coronavirus and the weakness in Wheat. CDC did comment that the virus is coming to the US and that Americans should take precautions. It is reported in South Korea, Italy, and Iran this week. The spread of the virus has created increased fears of a meltdown in the global economy and therefore less demand for feed grains. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. The strength in the US Dollar hurts demand for US Wheat with South America now starting to offer at lower prices. The weaker Wheat prices means more of that commodity can be used as feed as well. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. US feed demand is improved.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 358 May. Support is at 366, 363, and 360 May, and resistance is at 375, 379, and 381 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 276 May. Support is at 275, 272, and 269 March, and resistance is at 287, 290, and 293 May.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher due to the imposition of a 3% export tax by the government of Argentina on all Ag market exports and some rumors that China had bought a few loads of Soybeans at the PNW Any China business was not confirmed. The Coronavirus is on its way to becoming a [pandemic with its recent spread outside of China. It had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran this week. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic system. It seems like everyone is waiting for China to buy in quantity. China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry. A super strong US Dollar has hurt US export chances in all products.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 135,000 tons of US Soybean Meal
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 885, 878, and 872 May, and resistance is at 899, 910, and 917 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 310.00 and 320.00 May Support is at 300.00, 297.00, and 295.00 May, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 311.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2900, 2870, and 2840 May, with resistance at 2970, 3010, and 3040 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little higher in consolidation trading. Strength in Soybeans help Canola while lower Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices did not. New reports that the Coronavirus had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran over the weekend, and the news yesterday indicated a new case had surfaced in California in the last couple of days. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying tied to bargain hunting. Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries. Production is lower but is starting to increase seasonally.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 454.00, 451.00, and 448.00 May, with resistance at 461.00, 466.00, and 468.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2340 and 2240 May. Support is at 2390, 2360, and 2330 May, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2570 May.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal, but will turn warm late this weekend.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +46 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +52 Mar
April +56 May
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 416.40 -31.90 Mar 2020 up 0.16
Basis: Thunder Bay 463.60 7.00 May 2020 up 0.20
Basis: Vancouver 474.60 18.00 May 2020 up 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(email@example.com, or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 597.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 592.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 582.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 582.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 585.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 600.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 595.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 585.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 585.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 587.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 620.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Chang0 Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Mar 2,450.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 183.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –