About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 24
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 20, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/20/2020 02/13/2020 02/21/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 144 0 28,432 6,852
CORN 912,922 795,399 761,656 13,221,709 24,952,493
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 520 242
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 2,766 1,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 16,540 85,141 27,271 1,328,349 826,288
SOYBEANS 594,536 1,005,050 1,308,510 28,884,345 25,120,685
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 411,523 503,082 767,570 18,144,118 16,521,400
Total 1,935,521 2,388,816 2,865,007 61,610,239 67,429,953
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on selling prompted by the spread of the Caronavirus. The virus is now reported in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. Traders fear an impact to the global economy and were selling all ag futures as well as just about any other market around.. The move lower comes amid weaker world prices for Wheat. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently. The super strong US Dollar just adds to the difficulty US producers and exporters have with sales of US Wheat into the world market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the ar south today. Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March. Support is at 530, 528, and 523 March, with resistance at 542, 5753, and 558 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 451, 444, and 435 March, with resistance at 459, 463, and 469 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 512, 508, and 506 March, and resistance is at 520, 525, and 530 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in narrow range trading. Rice felt less effect from news of the spread of the Caronavirus because the countries it has spread to do not really buy a lot of US Long Grain. The virus has now spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. Traders fear that the world economy could take a big hit from the virus, but that does not mean less overall Rice consumption, specially for the US. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through early this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal today, then near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 and 1286 March. Support is at 1326, 1324, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1352, 1357, and 1374 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower I response to the spread of the Caronavirus. It is now reported in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The spread of the virus has created increased fears of a meltdown in the global economy and therefore less demand for feed grains. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand is improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 370, 368, and \350 March. Support is at 370, 368, and 365 March, and resistance is at 376, 380, and 383 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 286, 284, and 281 March. Support is at 283, 280, and 277 March, and resistance is at 294, 298, and 301 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower due to reports that the Caronavirus had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene. It seems like everyone is waiting for China to buy in quantity. China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains. A super strong US Dollar has hurt US export chances in all products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 861 and 854 March. Support is at 869, 866, and 856 March, and resistance is at 878, 885, and 891 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 285.00, 283.00, and 276.00 March Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 March, and resistance is at 289.00, 291.00, and 294.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2910 and 2870 March. Support is at 2930, 2870, and 2840 March, with resistance at 3000, 3070, and 3100 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in response to the spread of the Caronavirus. New reports that the Caronavirus had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop. The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene. Palm Oil was sharply lower on ideas of weaker demand brought on by the spread of the Carona Virus. Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News: SGS said Malaysian Palm Oil exports now total 970,094 tons this month, from 1.015 million tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 449.00 and 41.00 March. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 443.00 March, with resistance at 455.00, 458.00, and 459.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2530, 2520, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2620, 2670, and 2710 May.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Feb 24
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of January 2020, reported by Statistics Canada are
as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2019/20 2018/19
Canola Jan 2020 Dec 2018 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 854,686 829,640 5,063,065 4,724,763
Oil produced 375,307 359,742 2,211,362 2,056,896
Meal produced 476,979 468,249 2,830,663 2,644,748
Soybeans
Seed crushed 161,618 176,303 896,599 1,082,230
Oil produced 28,703 34,027 164,401 205,420
Meal produced 126,442 135,386 698,075 833,159
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rains today and snow tomorrow, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal after a warm day today.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +50 Mar
+155 Mar
+95 Mar
+58 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +52 Mar
+105 Mar
+58 Mar

April +54 May
+105 May
+49 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 425.16 -33.14 Mar 2020 dn 0.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 465.80 7.00 May 2020 dn 8.60
Basis: Vancouver 476.80 18.00 May 2020 dn 8.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 637.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 627.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 615.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 610.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 640.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 630.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 617.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 612.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 607.00 -13.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 630.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Mar 2,600.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 191.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2316)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 122,730 lots, or 5.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,568 3,604 3,564 3,564 3,585 3,573 -12 66 891
May-20 4,115 4,145 4,103 4,131 4,125 4,124 -1 115,309 120,053
Jul-20 4,109 4,134 4,109 4,134 4,130 4,121 -9 2 52
Sep-20 4,063 4,085 4,056 4,074 4,073 4,069 -4 7,250 21,066
Nov-20 – – – 3,979 3,979 3,979 0 0 262
Jan-21 3,988 4,000 3,980 3,995 3,993 3,989 -4 103 1,305
Corn
Turnover: 294,604 lots, or 5.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,874 1,885 1,874 1,876 1,876 1,877 1 446 9,447
May-20 1,913 1,920 1,909 1,915 1,913 1,914 1 205,596 583,010
Jul-20 1,939 1,945 1,936 1,942 1,939 1,940 1 13,384 57,364
Sep-20 1,962 1,968 1,959 1,965 1,962 1,963 1 71,758 312,955
Nov-20 1,977 1,986 1,976 1,984 1,979 1,981 2 1,896 4,990
Jan-21 1,992 1,997 1,990 1,996 1,993 1,993 0 1,524 8,925
Soymeal
Turnover: 716,009 lots, or 19.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,583 2,594 2,560 2,591 2,611 2,584 -27 1,376 5,055
May-20 2,607 2,637 2,598 2,636 2,632 2,621 -11 435,269 1,288,355
Jul-20 2,645 2,670 2,633 2,670 2,664 2,657 -7 61,820 85,574
Aug-20 2,676 2,711 2,675 2,711 2,703 2,693 -10 1,782 2,610
Sep-20 2,700 2,730 2,691 2,729 2,723 2,713 -10 201,515 1,277,207
Nov-20 2,729 2,754 2,716 2,753 2,747 2,739 -8 6,906 2,180
Dec-20 2,758 2,785 2,758 2,785 2,776 2,769 -7 5 324
Jan-21 2,761 2,789 2,751 2,788 2,780 2,772 -8 7,336 32,182
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,120,280 lots, or 59.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,340 5,432 5,338 5,390 5,464 5,368 -96 26 66
Apr-20 – – – 5,606 5,706 5,606 -100 0 10
May-20 5,348 5,358 5,282 5,316 5,442 5,308 -134 1,006,097 386,816
Jun-20 – – – 5,428 5,476 5,428 -48 0 5
Jul-20 – – – 5,376 5,376 5,376 0 0 303
Aug-20 5,408 5,408 5,346 5,346 5,466 5,376 -90 2 2
Sep-20 5,366 5,366 5,298 5,332 5,426 5,322 -104 111,823 118,387
Oct-20 – – – 5,448 5,448 5,448 0 0 6
Nov-20 5,370 5,370 5,370 5,370 5,586 5,370 -216 1 5
Dec-20 5,366 5,388 5,296 5,388 5,558 5,338 -220 16 157
Jan-21 5,330 5,332 5,260 5,296 5,380 5,290 -90 2,315 6,206
Feb-21 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 485,070 lots, or 28.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 5,850 5,850 5,850 0 0 4
May-20 5,832 5,846 5,790 5,826 5,906 5,816 -90 395,307 361,912
Jul-20 – – – 5,978 5,978 5,978 0 0 423
Aug-20 – – – 5,986 6,078 5,986 -92 0 4
Sep-20 5,952 5,984 5,926 5,950 6,038 5,950 -88 87,661 193,289
Nov-20 6,042 6,042 6,038 6,038 6,084 6,040 -44 2 215
Dec-20 6,106 6,134 6,104 6,104 6,170 6,122 -48 13 20
Jan-21 6,100 6,118 6,056 6,076 6,156 6,088 -68 2,087 13,584
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322