About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for February USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed February 1 102.3 101.8- 103.0
Placed in January 101.5 97.8- 103.5
Marketed in January 101.0 97.6- 101.6
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Feb. 1 in Jan in Jan
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.1 100.2 101.1
Allendale Inc. 103.0 101.6 97.6
HedgersEdge 102.3 101.6 100.5
Linn Group 101.8 97.8 100.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 102.7 103.5 101.0
NFC Markets 102.3 101.6 101.6
Texas A&M Extension 102.4 102.0 101.3
U.S. Commodities 102.2 102.2 101.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 18
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 13, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/13/2020 02/06/2020 02/14/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 144 8,830 0 28,432 6,852
CORN 795,228 788,549 941,811 12,308,616 24,190,837
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 520 242
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 100 0 2,766 1,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 74,141 77,577 118,255 1,300,785 799,017
SOYBEANS 992,294 640,620 1,083,567 28,277,053 23,812,175
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 501,990 567,349 363,523 17,730,804 15,753,830
Total 2,363,797 2,083,049 2,507,156 59,648,976 64,564,946
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Feb 19
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED FEBRUARY 19, 2020 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING JANUARY 2020
————————————————————————
Jan-20 Dec-19 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 18 1,796 0 1,796
BARLEY MALTING 53 5,289 798 5,289
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 4 399 0 399
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 15 1,498 3,394 1,498
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 31 3,094 2,595 3,094
CORN YELLOW 4,457 444,768 615,608 444,768
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 1 100 200 100
OATS 7 700 898 700
SORGHUM 273 27,243 25,747 27,243
SOYBEANS 2,399 239,394 195,194 239,394
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 42 4,192 8,882 4,192
WHEAT HRW 1,621 161,764 186,410 161,764
WHEAT SRW 74 7,384 21,256 7,384
WHEAT SWH 0 0 499 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher on news that ABARES in Australia had dramatically cut production estimates for the country. It estimated production between 15 and 17 million tons and this is lower than other trade estimates. The recent move lower comes amid weaker world prices for Wheat even with the Australian problems. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. The good news is that sales of US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace. So, the US is participating in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices until yesterday.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the far south today. Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 564, 555, and 549 March, with resistance at 571, 576, and 579 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 488 and 506 March. Support is at 480, 477, and 471 March, with resistance at 490, 496, and 500 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 545 and 560 March. Support is at 537, 531, and 529 March, and resistance is at 541, 543, and 549 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in recovery trading. Futures closed near the highs of the day and went a long way to negating the down side indications the market left last week. The futures market suggests that the March to May time frame could be the tight time for US and western Rice. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 March. Support is at 1316, 1308, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1350, 1357, and 1374 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 19
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.14 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.82 10.18 0.00
Brokens 9.60 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved higher yesterday with much of the rally in sympathy with Wheat. There was no reason for Corn to rally as much as it did on its own, but futures did hold chart support and are now back at resistance areas. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand is improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 298, 293, and 288 March, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybean Meal closed a little higher, but Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little lower. The price action was disappointing given that China said it will make tariff wavers available to its domestic industry for the purchase of US Soybeans. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting at the end of this month when the waivers are scheduled to take effect. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 908 and 917 March. Support is at 889, 878, and 876 March, and resistance is at 900, 903, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed Support is at 287.00, 286.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

Alerts History
• 18-Feb-2020 11:00:07 AM – U.S. JANUARY SOYBEAN CRUSH AT RECORD-HIGH 176.940 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 18-Feb-2020 11:00:07 AM – U.S. JANUARY SOYOIL STOCKS 2.013 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 18-Feb-2020 11:00:07 AM – U.S. JANUARY SOYMEAL EXPORTS 931,061 TONS – NOPA
NOPA January soybean crush hits record-high 176.940 million bushels – Reuters News
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher. Weaker oils in outside markets were negative, but the strong action of the US Dollar was positive as was news that China will relax tariffs at the end of the month. Palm Oil was a little lower on ideas of weaker demand. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2670, 2760, and 2860 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +53 Mar
+155 Mar
+100 Mar +53 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +56 Mar
+105 Mar
+57 Mar

April +54 May
+105 May
+48 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 426.26 -33.24 Mar 2020 dn 4.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.30 10.00 Mar 2020 up 2.80
Basis: Vancouver 483.30 21.00 Mar 2020 up 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 665.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 662.50 n/a Unquoted – –
May/Jun 647.50 n/a Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 630.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 622.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 667.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 665.00 n/a Unquoted – –
May/Jun 650.00 n/a Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 632.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 625.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 675.00 n/a Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 660.00 n/a Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Mar 2,690.00 n/a Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 197.00 n/a Unquoted – –
($1=M200.1600)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,427 lots, or 4.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,531 3,564 3,516 3,541 3,541 3,535 -6 28 1,267
May-20 4,153 4,197 4,140 4,191 4,149 4,170 21 110,591 122,901
Jul-20 4,179 4,185 4,155 4,161 4,182 4,170 -12 22 50
Sep-20 4,080 4,122 4,075 4,122 4,084 4,097 13 7,534 21,490
Nov-20 3,975 4,002 3,975 3,989 3,971 3,989 18 11 272
Jan-21 3,990 4,034 3,990 4,032 3,994 4,007 13 241 1,287
Corn
Turnover: 378,693 lots, or 7.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,874 1,900 1,871 1,876 1,876 1,879 3 2,135 10,983
May-20 1,905 1,913 1,900 1,910 1,915 1,908 -7 272,527 602,931
Jul-20 1,934 1,937 1,928 1,937 1,940 1,934 -6 20,182 52,285
Sep-20 1,957 1,964 1,954 1,959 1,966 1,959 -7 78,910 276,112
Nov-20 1,977 1,980 1,973 1,976 1,985 1,976 -9 452 3,520
Jan-21 1,991 1,994 1,985 1,989 1,995 1,990 -5 4,487 7,265
Soymeal
Turnover: 647,808 lots, or 17.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,622 2,637 2,618 2,636 2,629 2,629 0 1,246 8,605
May-20 2,658 2,666 2,645 2,660 2,660 2,657 -3 414,002 1,318,124
Jul-20 2,682 2,700 2,679 2,695 2,690 2,691 1 41,378 75,322
Aug-20 2,732 2,736 2,718 2,733 2,729 2,727 -2 895 2,936
Sep-20 2,746 2,756 2,736 2,751 2,747 2,747 0 181,874 1,236,248
Nov-20 2,773 2,781 2,762 2,776 2,773 2,773 0 4,216 2,067
Dec-20 2,809 2,809 2,792 2,804 2,802 2,802 0 47 290
Jan-21 2,808 2,814 2,797 2,809 2,806 2,805 -1 4,150 23,225
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,463,977 lots, or 80.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,632 5,668 5,510 5,510 5,798 5,574 -224 96 80
Apr-20 – – – 5,692 5,776 5,692 -84 0 3
May-20 5,522 5,558 5,432 5,444 5,548 5,482 -66 1,365,090 452,678
Jun-20 5,414 5,414 5,414 5,414 5,490 5,414 -76 1 6
Jul-20 – – – 5,424 5,424 5,424 0 0 304
Aug-20 5,482 5,482 5,446 5,450 5,506 5,456 -50 4 6
Sep-20 5,496 5,528 5,424 5,432 5,512 5,470 -42 97,004 112,262
Oct-20 – – – 5,490 5,532 5,490 -42 0 3
Nov-20 – – – 5,430 5,448 5,430 -18 0 5
Dec-20 5,564 5,566 5,486 5,486 5,608 5,526 -82 7 159
Jan-21 5,436 5,454 5,366 5,376 5,428 5,398 -30 1,775 4,115
Feb-21 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 629,945 lots, or 37.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,652 5,926 5,652 5,926 5,744 5,798 54 33 9
May-20 5,864 5,922 5,852 5,868 5,908 5,882 -26 526,223 388,944
Jul-20 5,914 5,960 5,912 5,912 5,940 5,930 -10 37 420
Aug-20 6,020 6,020 5,964 5,964 6,020 5,992 -28 2 4
Sep-20 6,024 6,062 5,986 6,000 6,060 6,022 -38 101,715 191,509
Nov-20 6,066 6,066 6,066 6,066 6,144 6,066 -78 6 213
Dec-20 – – – 6,118 6,196 6,118 -78 0 8
Jan-21 6,156 6,202 6,126 6,132 6,208 6,178 -30 1,929 10,232
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322