About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in narrow range trading last week. A catalyst for any rally attempt has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed. Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside their country were closed for an extended holiday. All are reopen now.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some rains early this week, then dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 62.98 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 32,990 bales, from 32,361 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6710, 6680, and 6620 March, with resistance of 6790, 6880 and 6910 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 249,025
: Positions :
: 38,591 24,432 55,503 47,335 147,898 91,998 10,099 233,426 237,932: 15,599 11,093
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: -43,735) :
: -727 -3,119 -21,381 -19,684 -15,670 -2,546 -3,700 -44,338 -43,870: 603 135
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 9.8 22.3 19.0 59.4 36.9 4.1 93.7 95.5: 6.3 4.5
: Total Traders: 286 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 63 96 52 58 48 21 244 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week. Futures act as if it could work higher despite bearish fundamentals. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 26% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 104.00 and 110.00 March. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 March, with resistance at 100.00, 102.00, and 105.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,619 :
: Positions :
: 11,010 7,679 1,120 0 70 1,103 8,739 506 2,037 1,114 3,002 :
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 :
: -561 -48 -89 0 2 103 -498 -172 39 -208 -450 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.6 32.5 4.7 0.0 0.3 4.7 37.0 2.1 8.6 4.7 12.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96 :
: 22 13 5 0 . 6 23 4 22 8 15 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 58.82 50.09 17.4%
Retail/Institutional 22.23 21.32 4.3%
Total Pack 81 DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Feb 14
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 2/1/2020
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
2/1/2020 2/2/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 298.13 233.80 27.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.83 5.86 16.5%
Total 304.96 239.66 27.2%
Pack
Bulk 3.79 5.47 -30.8%
Retail/Institutional 0.93 1.34 -30.7%
Total Pack 4.71 6.81 -30.8%
Reprocessed -2.96 -3.28 -9.9%
Pack from Fruit 1.76 3.53 -50.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.14 0.60 -77.5%
Imports – Foreign 3.42 4.89 -30.0%
Domestic Receipts 1.40 0.00 NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.44 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.08 0.06 28.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 304.16 241.55 25.9%
Retail/Institutional 7.76 7.20 7.8%
Total 311.92 248.74 25.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.24 4.75 10.4%
Exports 0.47 0.56 -16.1%
Total (Bulk) 5.71 5.31 7.6%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.03 1.15 -10.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.03 1.15 -10.5%
Total Movement 6.75 6.46 4.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 298.45 236.23 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.73 6.05 11.2%
Ending Inventory 305.17 242.28 26.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
1-Feb-20 2-Feb-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
.05 71.41 13.5%
Reprocessed -39.73 -41.99 -5.4%
Pack from Fruit 41.32 29.42 40.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.94 -0.88 6.5%
Imports – Foreign 32.15 77.70 -58.6%
Domestic Receipts 7.13 1.22 486.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.15 0.04 323.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 9.16 0.24 3793.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.51 0.28 82.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 379.20 323.90 17.1%
Retail/Institutional 28.05 27.23 3.0%
Total 407.25 351.14 16.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 75.98 81.51 -6.8%
Domestic 4.78 6.16 -22.5%
Exports 80.75 87.67 -7.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 21.32 21.18 0.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 21.32 21.18 0.7%
Total Movement 102.08 108.86 -6.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 298.45 236.23 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.73 6.05 11.2%
Ending Inventory 305.17 242.28 26.0%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London on a lack of news and despite ideas of good growing conditions in Brazil. Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production. The chart trends are mixed to up in New York and mixed in London due to the big production ideas, and futures could form a bottom in the current trading range. Cecafe noted reduced exports from Brazil in January. The ICO noted that demand remains very strong in the world market and that demand could outstrip supply in the next few weeks. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.163 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 March, and resistance is at 110.00, 111.00 and 114.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 396,440
: Positions :
: 31,393 46,025 119,810 152,780 190,928 76,839 31,914 380,823 388,677: 15,617 7,763
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: -10,647) :
: -815 11,719 -16,631 10,412 -4,580 -4,776 -51 -11,809 -9,542: 1,162 -1,105
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 11.6 30.2 38.5 48.2 19.4 8.1 96.1 98.0: 3.9 2.0
: Total Traders: 437 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 137 95 147 123 119 50 24 374 335:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: : New York closed higher and London closed lower after making new highs for the move. It was a dramatic week and one that implies that the current rally might be over. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1440 March, and resistance is at 1540, 1590, and 1610 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 410.00, 404.00, and 396.00 May, and resistance is at 420.00, 424.00, and 435.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,551,567
: Positions :
: 193,583 101,974 369,263 527,712 926,790 348,624 98,634 1,439,181 1,496,661: 112,387 54,907
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: 89,083) :
: 8,891 -5,081 31,597 48,428 58,735 -4,130 4,668 84,785 89,919: 4,298 -836
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 6.6 23.8 34.0 59.7 22.5 6.4 92.8 96.5: 7.2 3.5
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 44 105 94 86 43 23 285 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher for the week and London closed lower after the recent big rally in prices. Funds and other speculators were more two-sided in trading. Producers were sellers in both markets. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.378 million bags. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 55 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2880, 2850, and 2820 March, with resistance at 2990, 3010, and 3040 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950, 1900, and 1840 March. Support is at 1950, 1940, and 1910 March, with resistance at 2000, 2040, and 2060 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 391,089
: Positions :
: 84,938 42,310 122,639 92,631 188,609 75,005 25,462 375,212 379,019: 15,877 12,070
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: -11,445) :
: 8,901 569 -6,299 -11,080 -2,644 -3,322 -2,420 -11,800 -10,794: 355 -651
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.7 10.8 31.4 23.7 48.2 19.2 6.5 95.9 96.9: 4.1 3.1
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 65 90 38 40 36 20 222 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322