About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ China to Grant Tariff Exemptions on US Farm Products — Market Talk
09:11 ET – Some 697 US products, including farm goods, will be exempted from tariffs beginning March 2, according to Chinese officials. That is when importers will be allowed to apply for exemptions. This leaves the US market open for new reports of big Chinese purchases from the USDA, as this move suggests that China will act to reach the $36.5B in US agricultural purchases, as promised by phase one of the US-China trade deal. China is expected to be particularly interested in hog and soybean trading opportunities. “This week will be closely watched for any signs of China purchasing any U.S. products,” says Allendale. Overnight, wheat and corn futures traded higher, while soybeans were slightly lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com, @kirkmaltais)

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower for the week with Chicago SRW and Chicago HRW taking the brunt of the down move and Minneapolis Spring markets also lower. The weekly charts show that tops have been established but that futures markets have come close to initial swing targets for the move lower. The move lower comes amid weaker world prices for Wheat. Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales. East and West Europe have weaker prices as well. The good news is that sales of US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace. So, the US is participating in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe. The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently. The good US Sales should help to keep future prices from falling too much and initial chart indications suggest that some sideways trading is possible now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the far south today. Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March. Support is at 538, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 463, 459, and 453 March, with resistance at 471, 477, and 481 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March. Support is at 520, 517, and 512 March, and resistance is at 532, 538, and 540 March.

DJ Wheat Futures Up as Australian Wheat Crop Estimate Falls — Market Talk
08:42 ET – A decline in the expected Australian wheat crop has US wheat futures on the CBOT up 2.1% in pre-market trading. The country’s crop agency ABARES estimates that the 2019 wheat crop will total 15.2 million metric tons, down from 15.85 million tons — which would be the smallest crop since 2008. Widespread brushfires in Australia have stifled harvesting of the grain crop this year. Meanwhile, corn futures are up 0.5% and soybeans are down 0.2% pre-market. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 634,249
: Positions :
: 113,951 100,167 240,654 74,337 177,706 169,842 57,489 598,784 576,015: 35,465 58,234
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: -15,889) :
: -1,983 5,884 -12,916 4,069 -6,505 -4,522 -4,018 -15,352 -17,555: -537 1,666
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.0 15.8 37.9 11.7 28.0 26.8 9.1 94.4 90.8: 5.6 9.2
: Total Traders: 414 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 123 141 78 121 53 23 320 333:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 318,010
: Positions :
: 49,182 58,413 88,663 64,860 127,704 86,656 21,126 289,360 295,906: 28,650 22,104
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: -13,628) :
: 762 -878 -11,990 -2,200 526 -903 -591 -14,330 -12,934: 702 -695
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 18.4 27.9 20.4 40.2 27.2 6.6 91.0 93.0: 9.0 7.0
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 55 92 88 86 34 16 246 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 72,989 :
: Positions :
: 38,435 40,401 2,182 0 6 4,100 10,954 3,747 6,466 1,295 4,052 :
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 :
: 2,980 1,966 231 0 -4 211 2,436 -591 203 -142 567 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.7 55.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 15.0 5.1 8.9 1.8 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 89 :
: 44 37 . 0 . 8 9 6 9 6 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 23,513 :
: Positions :
: 7,177 20,321 4,225 557 1,454 7,926 0 268 1,441 0 715 :
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 :
: -643 1,159 1,000 104 -152 611 0 -3 49 -200 138 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.5 86.4 18.0 2.4 6.2 33.7 0.0 1.1 6.1 0.0 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 12 19 . . . 5 0 . . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower and the weekly charts show that futures made an outside week down for a key reversal to the downside. It was a very bad move for a market that still has mostly bullish fundamentals. Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1299 March. Support is at 1316, 1308, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1343, 1350, and 1357 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 15,141 :
: Positions :
: 4,859 9,632 92 0 0 5,796 1,061 0 690 1,278 1,283 :
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 :
: 493 965 -1 0 0 528 28 -10 110 146 204 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.1 63.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 38.3 7.0 0.0 4.6 8.4 8.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 17 17 . 0 0 21 . 0 8 9 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved a little lower last week. Oats were lower for most of the week and closed near the weekly lows. The main driver was the Coronavirus that has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand is improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 375, 371, and 368 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 286, 284, and 281 March. Support is at 293, 288, and 283 March, and resistance is at 298, 302, and 307 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,868,556
: Positions :
: 135,257 252,444 481,073 511,991 760,404 442,940 161,439 1,571,261 1,655,359: 297,295 213,196
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,261) :
: -3,814 10,947 2,842 7,478 -9,240 -6,601 -4,054 -94 495: 4,355 3,766
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.2 13.5 25.7 27.4 40.7 23.7 8.6 84.1 88.6: 15.9 11.4
: Total Traders: 790 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 140 192 363 354 53 31 663 629:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,890 :
: Positions :
: 1,557 4,670 113 0 0 1,301 61 0 1,383 1 131 :
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 :
: 154 175 0 0 0 19 -17 0 2 -10 9 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.4 79.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 22.1 1.0 0.0 23.5 0.0 2.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 9 14 . 0 0 6 . 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal both closed a little higher. The price action was especially strong in Soybeans and came on the back of potentially encouraging demand news. The news that the Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was scheduled to get started this week was a little bullish for the markets. China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country. There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting this week. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 908 and 917 March. Support is at 889, 878, and 876 March, and resistance is at 900, 903, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed Support is at 287.00, 286.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 292.00, 295.00, and 296.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,048,773
: Positions :
: 66,436 167,625 312,687 375,626 415,391 215,309 77,615 970,058 973,318: 78,715 75,455
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: 28,350) :
: 4,720 10,208 8,423 17,379 3,007 -8,606 6,907 21,917 28,546: 6,433 -196
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 16.0 29.8 35.8 39.6 20.5 7.4 92.5 92.8: 7.5 7.2
: Total Traders: 600 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 157 126 201 202 203 51 26 506 480:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 558,381
: Positions :
: 68,347 38,943 147,140 158,695 302,351 145,720 40,514 519,902 528,948: 38,479 29,432
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: -15,147) :
: -6,871 5,294 -12,855 10,444 -2,284 -8,848 -4,147 -18,130 -13,993: 2,984 -1,154
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 7.0 26.4 28.4 54.1 26.1 7.3 93.1 94.7: 6.9 5.3
: Total Traders: 329 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 62 111 91 86 41 22 278 243:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 535,353
: Positions :
: 46,420 111,521 116,970 192,192 230,565 126,828 42,433 482,409 501,488: 52,943 33,865
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 (Change in open interest: 4,700) :
: 3,386 5,194 2,843 2,529 -8,352 -3,280 5,192 5,478 4,877: -778 -177
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 20.8 21.8 35.9 43.1 23.7 7.9 90.1 93.7: 9.9 6.3
: Total Traders: 335 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 94 97 108 90 34 19 273 248:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on Friday. Weaker oils in outside markets were negative. Palm Oil was higher after holding support areas on the daily charts. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2670, 2760, and 2860 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 200,219 :
: Positions :
: 163,396 96,108 5,618 1,155 720 1,062 67,398 5,256 7,726 12,713 15,322 :
: Changes from: February 4, 2020 :
: -3,648 -15,185 65 -56 60 -1,062 8,924 -2,467 -922 624 248 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.6 48.0 2.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 33.7 2.6 3.9 6.3 7.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 221 :
: 38 50 6 . . 5 59 9 33 47 20 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +48 Mar
+155 Mar
+100 Mar +57 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +54 Mar
+105 Mar
+57 Mar

April +54 May
+105 May
+49 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 14
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, February 14.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 430.56 -30.24 March 2020 up 0.40
Track Thunder Bay 469.50 10.00 March 2020 dn 4.30
Track Vancouver 480.50 21.00 March 2020 dn 4.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 687.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 685.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 687.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 677.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,750.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 200.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1530)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322